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Juankymetrics


Guest Juanky
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Before you attack me on the name, yes, it's a joke.

 

Well, let me start off with why I'm doing this. I haven't had much to do this week, and I picked up Moneyball for a cheap price on Saturday after FanFest. Well, I've gotten to reading it, and it's really fascinating. There really isn't anything I didn't know, but it has been a source of interest and inspiration. I got to thinking, how could you build a dynasty without having much in the financial department? How could you take winning an unfair game to the next level?

 

I started thinking about building my own economic model for how to perfectly quantify a players value in all aspects of the game, and be able to apply this value to the economics of the both the draft and the open market. This, however, is a long long process that was broken up into a few parts. The first stage was finding what parts of the game were poorly represented by numbers that were used to rate players. And I thought to myself, why does no one try to say anything about baserunning? Sure, stolen bases and runs scored are pretty, but they don't tell an accurate story of how good a baserunner someone may be.

 

So now, the fun part. In the past three days I've come up with three different stats for baserunning or something involving baserunning: TRA (Total Bases per BaseRunning Attempts), TOP (Total Offensive Production), and BRI (Base Running Index). I know, original names right? Well, what do they do?

 

The first is the simplest IMO (believe it or not). To calculate TRA, you simple take the Total Bases of a player and divide them by the number of times they reached base (be it by a walk, hit, reaching base by error, HBP, pinchrunning (you'd only get counted if you advanced a base in this part), grounding into a fielder's choice with less than two outs, or anything else of the sort). The formula would look like this:

 

Total Bases / Times Reaching Base

 

Of course, I realize some problems arise from this. Homers count for 4 total bases here, because you are reaching base, even though you didn't technically run the bases. However, my figuring in not eliminating homers in this early stage of TRA are this: A) in a long season, I figure the homers will even out if you can't run the bases any other way and B) I'm doing this by myself and I really don't have the time to stop and remove homers in the testing stage.

 

Stat #2 is a variance of OPS. My opinion of OPS is that it is a solid stat for middle of the order hitters, and it does show what you do while you're at the plate. However, it doesn't tell the whole story of an inning. What good having an OPS of 1.246 when you don't get past second base? I needed to come up with something that would tell me what a player does for the offense as a whole, not what happens just when holds a bat. The problem, of course, is that TRA by nature is a stat between 1 and 4. I needed to trim this, so after thinking alot I figured out that I was a moron and there was an obvious solution:

 

OBP + (TRA / 4) = TOP

 

The higher the total, the better offensive weapon the player is as a whole. The stat not only tells you how good a player is at not creating an out, but also tells you what he does after he fails at creating the out the other team so desperately wants. Is it a perfect way to quantify a hitter? Naw, but I'd like to pretend it is to temporarily boost my self esteem. But I'm sure you'll all hate it.

 

Now, both these stats bring up a dilemma I'm sure you've all noticed. This must all be affected by the stats of the hitters behind them, right? If the hitters behind you are jacking them out of the park and you're always walking, you only earned one out of the four bases. So here's my first crack at getting rid of this advantage (I warn you, BCS-like creativity coming up):

 

(TRA / 4) + (SB% / 100) - {[(TRA1 + TRA2 + TRA3) /3] /4} - {[(SLG1 + SLG2 + SLG3) /3] /4} = BRI

 

Yeah, that seems complicated. Let me try to explain it piece by piece. Part A is simple, take the player's TRA and divide by 4 to reach the number from the previous equation. Part two is so that stolen bases kings get to prove they are good baserunners, but it's their percentage. It is divided by 100 so it is as a decimal. Part C is where it gets complicated. Add together the TRAs of the three hitters immediately after the player, and divide by 3 to reach the average TRA for the hitters. Then divide this number by 4 to get a number comparable to parts A and B. For part D, take SLG of the next three hitters, and divide by three to average them. Divide it by 4 to reach a comparable number (I'm unsure of this part, but I decided it is necessary for now) and then subtract both C and D from the sum of A and B. Out pops your stat for total baserunning efficiency at the moment.

 

The last stat is a problem - I'm not sure if the subtraction will kill the number because it has yet to be tested. But I figure it should work like that, and if not I can tinker with it later. BRI is the least of my worries at the moment, that baby is going to take a while and I recognize that.

 

This is all part of a larger model, which is yet unfinished. I just wanted to see your guys' take on what I've done now, and any criticism minus the "OMG dork" or "you have no life OMG" are accepted. And no, none of the girls in my life know about this. I'd like to keep it that way, thanks.

 

If someone has done something similar, sorry. I'm not familiar with advanced baseball math AT ALL.

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Can you give an example using a player. Use Alex Gonzalez as an example.

688938[/snapback]

I'd like to be able to, but I don't have access to complete stats on reaching base. Most sites only take Hits, Walks, and HBP, leaving alot to be desired. I could run the numbers with just what I have as an example, in fact I'll do that now on Juan Pierre, Miguel Cabrera, and Alex Gonzalez, but they won't be exact. But since all you want is an example, it'll serve it's purpose.

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I take that back, I can't do examples for you tonight. There's apparently something wrong with the way the Elias Sports Bureau takes Total Bases.

 

Luis Castillo has 196 Total Bases from last season. Yet he has 164 hits and 75 walks, a total of 239 appearances on base just from those two stats. How the hell can you have less total bases than times on base? That's impossible, yet I'm seeing this from more than one source.

 

Sorry guys, example will have to wait.

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Before you attack me on the name, yes, it's a joke.

 

Well, let me start off with why I'm doing this. I haven't had much to do this week, and I picked up Moneyball for a cheap price on Saturday after FanFest. Well, I've gotten to reading it, and it's really fascinating. There really isn't anything I didn't know, but it has been a source of interest and inspiration. I got to thinking, how could you build a dynasty without having much in the financial department? How could you take winning an unfair game to the next level?

 

I started thinking about building my own economic model for how to perfectly quantify a players value in all aspects of the game, and be able to apply this value to the economics of the both the draft and the open market. This, however, is a long long process that was broken up into a few parts. The first stage was finding what parts of the game were poorly represented by numbers that were used to rate players. And I thought to myself, why does no one try to say anything about baserunning? Sure, stolen bases and runs scored are pretty, but they don't tell an accurate story of how good a baserunner someone may be.

 

So now, the fun part. In the past three days I've come up with three different stats for baserunning or something involving baserunning: TRA (Total Bases per BaseRunning Attempts), TOP (Total Offensive Production), and BRI (Base Running Index). I know, original names right? Well, what do they do?

 

The first is the simplest IMO (believe it or not). To calculate TRA, you simple take the Total Bases of a player and divide them by the number of times they reached base (be it by a walk, hit, reaching base by error, HBP, pinchrunning (you'd only get counted if you advanced a base in this part), grounding into a fielder's choice with less than two outs, or anything else of the sort). The formula would look like this:

 

Total Bases / Times Reaching Base

 

Of course, I realize some problems arise from this. Homers count for 4 total bases here, because you are reaching base, even though you didn't technically run the bases. However, my figuring in not eliminating homers in this early stage of TRA are this: A) in a long season, I figure the homers will even out if you can't run the bases any other way and B) I'm doing this by myself and I really don't have the time to stop and remove homers in the testing stage.

 

Stat #2 is a variance of OPS. My opinion of OPS is that it is a solid stat for middle of the order hitters, and it does show what you do while you're at the plate. However, it doesn't tell the whole story of an inning. What good having an OPS of 1.246 when you don't get past second base? I needed to come up with something that would tell me what a player does for the offense as a whole, not what happens just when holds a bat. The problem, of course, is that TRA by nature is a stat between 1 and 4. I needed to trim this, so after thinking alot I figured out that I was a moron and there was an obvious solution:

 

OBP + (TRA / 4) = TOP

 

The higher the total, the better offensive weapon the player is as a whole. The stat not only tells you how good a player is at not creating an out, but also tells you what he does after he fails at creating the out the other team so desperately wants. Is it a perfect way to quantify a hitter? Naw, but I'd like to pretend it is to temporarily boost my self esteem. But I'm sure you'll all hate it.

 

Now, both these stats bring up a dilemma I'm sure you've all noticed. This must all be affected by the stats of the hitters behind them, right? If the hitters behind you are jacking them out of the park and you're always walking, you only earned one out of the four bases. So here's my first crack at getting rid of this advantage (I warn you, BCS-like creativity coming up):

 

(TRA / 4) + (SB% / 100) - {[(TRA1 + TRA2 + TRA3) /3] /4} - {[(SLG1 + SLG2 + SLG3) /3] /4} = BRI

 

Yeah, that seems complicated. Let me try to explain it piece by piece. Part A is simple, take the player's TRA and divide by 4 to reach the number from the previous equation. Part two is so that stolen bases kings get to prove they are good baserunners, but it's their percentage. It is divided by 100 so it is as a decimal. Part C is where it gets complicated. Add together the TRAs of the three hitters immediately after the player, and divide by 3 to reach the average TRA for the hitters. Then divide this number by 4 to get a number comparable to parts A and B. For part D, take SLG of the next three hitters, and divide by three to average them. Divide it by 4 to reach a comparable number (I'm unsure of this part, but I decided it is necessary for now) and then subtract both C and D from the sum of A and B. Out pops your stat for total baserunning efficiency at the moment.

 

The last stat is a problem - I'm not sure if the subtraction will kill the number because it has yet to be tested. But I figure it should work like that, and if not I can tinker with it later. BRI is the least of my worries at the moment, that baby is going to take a while and I recognize that.

 

This is all part of a larger model, which is yet unfinished. I just wanted to see your guys' take on what I've done now, and any criticism minus the "OMG dork" or "you have no life OMG" are accepted. And no, none of the girls in my life know about this. I'd like to keep it that way, thanks.

 

If someone has done something similar, sorry. I'm not familiar with advanced baseball math AT ALL.

688934[/snapback]

 

I really don't get the TRA. What do you want to use it for? Aside from homers, you have also have for example stand up doubles. If you are trying to come up with some base-running stat, I'd argue that these things are perhaps the most important

 

SB percentage, # Stolen Bases, # of Triples (you really can't get these without great baserunning)

 

As for how much you should weight each and what not...I don't know, I think Bill James did some study in the 80s where you are only contributing to your team if you steal at a clip of 66 percent or so. Else you are actually hurting your team.

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I really don't get the TRA. What do you want to use it for? Aside from homers, you have also have for example stand up doubles. If you are trying to come up with some base-running stat, I'd argue that these things are perhaps the most important

 

SB percentage, # Stolen Bases, # of Triples (you really can't get these without great baserunning)

 

As for how much you should weight each and what not...I don't know, I think Bill James did some study in the 80s where you are only contributing to your team if you steal at a clip of 66 percent or so. Else you are actually hurting your team.

- TRA is for baserunning efficiency, basically how far you get along the base paths everytime you reach them. My reasoning is, it's one thing to have a .500 OBP but what good is it to get to first half the time if you never leave the base?

 

- Doubles are a bit of an anomaly. Some doubles you earn runningwise, some you don't. It's hard to just exclude them completely since you are reaching second base by yourself running, but I can see where you are coming from. If when the season starts I see doubles are throwing the numbers off, I'll tinker with the TRA formula and assign weights to different things.

 

- Number of stolen bases is nice but when judging how good a baserunner you are, it's really not important. It's better used for other things. Stolen base percentage I do recognize is a good stat to measure baserunning ability, that's why I included it in the BRI which I have been tinkering alot with since I came up with it. I'm trying to weigh everything perfectly, but what stat gets what weight isn't compeleted yet. It would help if MLB kept decent Total Bases stats.

 

- Triples are included, as is every other way you reach base. I don't see the need to make a special emphasis on it, I'm trying to prove who is a very good baserunner not who is a very fast baserunner.

 

oh my GOD. i didn't read any of this. you nerd.

Thanks for contributing positively to the conversation.

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Before you attack me on the name, yes, it's a joke.

 

Well, let me start off with why I'm doing this. I haven't had much to do this week, and I picked up Moneyball for a cheap price on Saturday after FanFest. Well, I've gotten to reading it, and it's really fascinating. There really isn't anything I didn't know, but it has been a source of interest and inspiration. I got to thinking, how could you build a dynasty without having much in the financial department? How could you take winning an unfair game to the next level?

 

I started thinking about building my own economic model for how to perfectly quantify a players value in all aspects of the game, and be able to apply this value to the economics of the both the draft and the open market. This, however, is a long long process that was broken up into a few parts. The first stage was finding what parts of the game were poorly represented by numbers that were used to rate players. And I thought to myself, why does no one try to say anything about baserunning? Sure, stolen bases and runs scored are pretty, but they don't tell an accurate story of how good a baserunner someone may be.

 

So now, the fun part. In the past three days I've come up with three different stats for baserunning or something involving baserunning: TRA (Total Bases per BaseRunning Attempts), TOP (Total Offensive Production), and BRI (Base Running Index). I know, original names right? Well, what do they do?

 

The first is the simplest IMO (believe it or not). To calculate TRA, you simple take the Total Bases of a player and divide them by the number of times they reached base (be it by a walk, hit, reaching base by error, HBP, pinchrunning (you'd only get counted if you advanced a base in this part), grounding into a fielder's choice with less than two outs, or anything else of the sort). The formula would look like this:

 

Total Bases / Times Reaching Base

 

Of course, I realize some problems arise from this. Homers count for 4 total bases here, because you are reaching base, even though you didn't technically run the bases. However, my figuring in not eliminating homers in this early stage of TRA are this: A) in a long season, I figure the homers will even out if you can't run the bases any other way and B) I'm doing this by myself and I really don't have the time to stop and remove homers in the testing stage.

 

Stat #2 is a variance of OPS. My opinion of OPS is that it is a solid stat for middle of the order hitters, and it does show what you do while you're at the plate. However, it doesn't tell the whole story of an inning. What good having an OPS of 1.246 when you don't get past second base? I needed to come up with something that would tell me what a player does for the offense as a whole, not what happens just when holds a bat. The problem, of course, is that TRA by nature is a stat between 1 and 4. I needed to trim this, so after thinking alot I figured out that I was a moron and there was an obvious solution:

 

OBP + (TRA / 4) = TOP

 

The higher the total, the better offensive weapon the player is as a whole. The stat not only tells you how good a player is at not creating an out, but also tells you what he does after he fails at creating the out the other team so desperately wants. Is it a perfect way to quantify a hitter? Naw, but I'd like to pretend it is to temporarily boost my self esteem. But I'm sure you'll all hate it.

 

Now, both these stats bring up a dilemma I'm sure you've all noticed. This must all be affected by the stats of the hitters behind them, right? If the hitters behind you are jacking them out of the park and you're always walking, you only earned one out of the four bases. So here's my first crack at getting rid of this advantage (I warn you, BCS-like creativity coming up):

 

(TRA / 4) + (SB% / 100) - {[(TRA1 + TRA2 + TRA3) /3] /4} - {[(SLG1 + SLG2 + SLG3) /3] /4} = BRI

 

Yeah, that seems complicated. Let me try to explain it piece by piece. Part A is simple, take the player's TRA and divide by 4 to reach the number from the previous equation. Part two is so that stolen bases kings get to prove they are good baserunners, but it's their percentage. It is divided by 100 so it is as a decimal. Part C is where it gets complicated. Add together the TRAs of the three hitters immediately after the player, and divide by 3 to reach the average TRA for the hitters. Then divide this number by 4 to get a number comparable to parts A and B. For part D, take SLG of the next three hitters, and divide by three to average them. Divide it by 4 to reach a comparable number (I'm unsure of this part, but I decided it is necessary for now) and then subtract both C and D from the sum of A and B. Out pops your stat for total baserunning efficiency at the moment.

 

The last stat is a problem - I'm not sure if the subtraction will kill the number because it has yet to be tested. But I figure it should work like that, and if not I can tinker with it later. BRI is the least of my worries at the moment, that baby is going to take a while and I recognize that.

 

This is all part of a larger model, which is yet unfinished. I just wanted to see your guys' take on what I've done now, and any criticism minus the "OMG dork" or "you have no life OMG" are accepted. And no, none of the girls in my life know about this. I'd like to keep it that way, thanks.

 

If someone has done something similar, sorry. I'm not familiar with advanced baseball math AT ALL.

688934[/snapback]

 

I really don't get the TRA. What do you want to use it for? Aside from homers, you have also have for example stand up doubles. If you are trying to come up with some base-running stat, I'd argue that these things are perhaps the most important

 

SB percentage, # Stolen Bases, # of Triples (you really can't get these without great baserunning)

 

As for how much you should weight each and what not...I don't know, I think Bill James did some study in the 80s where you are only contributing to your team if you steal at a clip of 66 percent or so. Else you are actually hurting your team.

689307[/snapback]

I think it's more than that, somewhere in the seventies

of course it depends on the situation

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Well I dropped it for a little while since I have absolutely nothing to use except in season stats I take myself. But I'll get back to work as soon as the season starts.

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