Essentially, I think that the Marlins need to choose over the next 4 days or so whether we want to win now and sacrifice the future or try to prolong our competitiveness as long as possible until we become a solid revenue generating team with a new stadium (if that is even possible). And the deadline deal(s) or the lack thereof need to reflect that decision unwaveringly.

 

Specifically, if the Marlins think that this team is good enough to go to the playoffs and be competitive now, then they need to hold on to Burnett and try to add another piece whether it be a backend bullpen reliever or bat by giving up minor leaguers. This would mortgage the future tremendously: Burnett is unsignable, our rotation would be in trouble next year, and, as is, the position team is not good enough to carry a team (a la the Yankees). Plus, we don't have a replacement for Burnett in the minors. Olsen is good, but not a number 1 or 2. This may seem drastic, but I think the Marlins are good enough with this team to compete, so I don't think it is such a bad decision.

 

The second option is to prolong our competitiveness as long as possible. That means finding a replacement for Burnett for either next year or the year after. The only way to do that is to trade Burnett for top level minor league pitching prospects that can blossom into front of rotation pitchers and remain cheap for a few more years. What the Marlins cannot do is try to trade for current non-core needs. And by this I mean adding a veteran starter now (i.e. Contreras, Arroyo) to try and patch up a rotation for the time being (and possibly next year), a fickle reliever (Marte, Julio) who may not stay or will at a premium, and a midlevel prospect is useless. We won't be competitive enough with that veteran now, and the midlevel prospect is not a replacement for the future. We cannot trade Burnett for spare parts, otherwise we lose both ways. We need to get a potential "core" player in return.

 

Of all the deals I have read about, only a variation of the Red Sox offer and the possible (but highly improbable) Angels offer. Only, Anibel Sanchez or Ervin Santana are the types of players for whom to close a deal. These two potentially are replacements for Burnett, and they would be core players. Arroyo in that offer in my mind is meaningless. He is another 4th or 5th starter. A nice throw-in, but the deal is about Sanchez. (I would prefer to get another prospect instead of Arroyo.) (Personally, I think that McCarthey has fallen somewhat as a prospect and is not a front of the rotation guy. He is closer to a 3.)

 

We need to do something similar to what the A's did. If you choose the future, then trade for close to major league ready top pitching prospects. However, we are in a much better position than the As. We have relatively cheap position talent, and we have 2 good young starters in Beckett and Willis already. We don't need to trade for outfielders or start anew in the rotation.

 

What could be disastrous is if the Marlins try to ride the middle, which is what their public comments have suggested. Trade for a cheap 4th starter for the next couple years and a reliever and a midlevel prospect. That would set us back a few years. We don't cut payroll, we can't win now, and we don't get a potential replacement for the future.

 

As much as I hated the Penny deal last, the FO's heart was in the right place (even if its head wasn't). They faced a similar decision, and they chose to win now. They could have traded our best starter in Pavano for top minor league talent. Instead, they chose to trade Penny for what they thought would put them over the top. I disagreed about what the impact of the personel change would be, but not the strategy. I just hope that the 2005 Beinfest makes a firm decision one way or the other, just like the 2004 Beinfest.

As much as I hated the Penny deal last, the FO's heart was in the right place (even if its head wasn't). They faced a similar decision, and they chose to win now. They could have traded our best starter in Pavano for top minor league talent. Instead, they chose to trade Penny for what they thought would put them over the top. I disagreed about what the impact of the personel change would be, but not the strategy. I just hope that the 2005 Beinfest makes a firm decision one way or the other, just like the 2004 Beinfest.

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nice post, and amen to that Swede

damn that was well written. i couldnt agree with you more and you simply said what ive been thinking but im just too damn lazy to write. the difference between our team and others is our front office's willingness (balls) to go out there and put a competetive team out on the field. what simply amazes me is the fact that the front office will stop at nothing to win when they know Florida doesnt have a high payroll or one of the better baseball towns. i have great faith in the choices they make at the trading deadline and look forward to whats to come for the rest of 2005.

 

awesome post man :afro

Thanks.

That's very well written. Good job. But don't let the rumors get to you. Remember that that is all that they are. Rumors. Much of what is written, and what we think we know, is nothing but a fart in the wind. The front office has thus far proven by it's (in)action that they see things as you state and they have made their stand.

Great post.

 

I don't think it's an either-or decision though.