Some BP projections on young Marlins prospects

I've picked out the Marlins-related portion of the article and bolded all the Marlins players (I think) in the projection tables.

First Basemen: Real Prospects

Player WARP Upside Comb

1. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL (22) 18.5 224.1 409.6

2. Mike Jacobs, 1B, FLO (25) 16.0 129.3 288.9

3. Jason Stokes, 1B, FLO (24) 14.8 123.0 270.6

4. Justin Huber, 1B, KCA (23) 15.2 117.1 269.3

5. Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE (25) 14.9 108.2 257.2

6. Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI (24) 15.2 94.2 246.2

7. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK (20) 13.6 103.4 239.1

8. Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA (23) 12.1 113.0 233.6

9. Ryan Shealy, 1B, COL (26) 12.8 91.5 219.7

10. Wesley Bankston, 1B, TBA (22) 11.4 67.8 181.3

11. Garrett Jones, 1B, MIN (25) 9.8 58.4 156.1

12. Mike Aubrey, 1B, CLE (24) 8.7 49.6 137.1

13. Casey Rogowski, 1B, CHA (25) 9.6 38.7 134.2

14. James Loney, 1B, LAN (22) 9.4 39.8 133.8

15. Brandon Sing, 1B, CHN (25) 8.5 44.9 130.3

16. Admin Broadway, 1B, WAS (25) 8.7 41.7 128.8

17. Chip Cannon, 1B, TOR (24) 8.0 36.8 117.2

18. Chris Duncan, 1B, SLN (25) 7.2 36.0 107.8

19. Scott Thorman, 1B, ATL (24) 7.3 32.9 106.1

I suspect that some people won't be as bothered by the placement of Jackson or Barton on this list as they will be by the names of some of the hitters who rank above them. Ryan Garko and Mike Jacobs are Shane Victorino All-Stars; Garko in particular is underrated because of the tough offensive environments in the Cleveland system. I'm less confident in Jason Stokes' placement on this list, and recall my earlier concerns about PECOTA's funky treatment of injured players.

Center Fielders: Real Prospects

Player Age WARP Upside Comb

1. Chris Young, CF, ARI (22) 22 22.5 212.9 437.8

2. Brian Anderson, CF, CHA (24) 24 16.1 104.4 265.7

3. Franklin Gutierrez, CF, CLE (23) 23 14.6 100.8 246.8

4. Felix Pie, CF, CHN (21) 21 14.0 94.4 234.5

5. Lastings Milledge, CF, NYN (21) 21 12.8 100.8 228.4

6. Hunter Pence, CF, HOU (23) 23 14.3 70.8 214.2

7. Melky Cabrera, CF, NYA (21) 21 12.5 78.9 203.4

8. Brad Snyder, CF, CLE (24) 24 13.2 69.1 200.9

9. Elijah Dukes, CF, TBA (22) 22 12.9 70.6 200.0

10. Andrew McCutchen, CF, PIT (19)** 19 12.9 69.4 198.8

11. Brian Barton, CF, CLE (24) 24 13.1 51.4 182.2

12. Val Majewski, CF, BAL (25) 25 9.9 81.7 180.4

13. Chris Denorfia, CF, CIN (25) 25 13.2 46.3 178.2

14. David Krynzel, CF, MIL (24) 24 11.3 52.0 165.0

15. Angel Pagan, CF, NYN (24) 24 13.0 34.3 164.1

16. Frank Diaz, CF, WAS (22) 22 10.7 48.0 155.3

17. Jeff Fiorentino, CF, BAL (23) 23 10.3 50.8 154.2

18. Javier Herrera, CF, OAK (21) 21 10.9 44.4 153.6

19. Jeffrey Salazar, CF, COL (25) 25 11.6 36.0 152.3

20. Michael Bourn, CF, PHI (23) 23 12.4 24.0 148.3

21. Rajai Davis, CF, PIT (25) 25 10.7 33.6 140.1

22. Anthony Miller, CF, COL (25) 25 10.1 34.3 135.7

23. Timothy Battle, CF, NYA (20) 20 9.2 37.4 129.6

24. Jason Pridie, CF, TBA (22) 22 8.1 47.5 128.4

25. Mitch Maier, CF, KCA (24) 24 9.7 27.7 124.5

26. Gregor Blanco, CF, ATL (22) 22 8.1 41.7 122.8

27. Chris Lubanski, CF, KCA (21) 21 8.3 34.0 117.4

28. Joseph Gaetti, CF, COL (24) 24 7.9 37.4 116.1

29. Sebastien Boucher, CF, SEA (24) 24 8.7 21.8 108.9

30. Chris Aguila, CF, FLO (27) 27 7.4 32.5 107.0

31. Steve Moss, CF, MIL (22) 22 7.5 26.2 101.5

** Small sample size warning

Corner Outfielders: Real Prospects

Player Age WARP Upside Comb

1. Delmon Young, RF, TBA (20) 20 23.6 247.3 483.1

2. Jeremy Hermida, RF, FLO (22) 22 22.1 157.8 378.7

3. Corey Hart, RF, MIL (24) 24 19.0 124.8 315.2

4. Alexander Romero, LF, MIN (22) 22 17.8 110.6 288.1

5. Nathan McLouth, LF, PIT (24) 24 15.4 87.7 241.8

6. Carlos Quentin, RF, ARI (23) 23 16.5 72.9 238.2

7. Billy Butler, LF, KCA (20) 20 11.4 108.1 221.8

8. Jason Botts, LF, TEX (25) 25 12.5 96.6 221.2

9. Brandon Moss, RF, BOS (22) 22 13.3 73.9 206.5

10. Matthew Kemp, RF, LAN (21) 21 12.7 79.6 206.4

11. Kevin Thompson, LF, NYA (26) 26 13.8 57.7 195.9

12. Chris Snelling, RF, SEA (24)++ 24 9.9 92.4 191.4

13. Ben Johnson, RF, SDN (25) 25 12.7 57.0 184.3

14. Jason Kubel, RF, MIN (24) 24 10.4 73.0 177.4

15. Nelson Cruz, RF, MIL (25) 25 12.1 50.5 171.9

16. Carlos Gonzalez, RF, ARI (20) 20 12.4 46.8 171.3

17. Cody Haerther, LF, SLN (22) 22 10.9 61.4 170.3

18. Nick Markakis, RF, BAL (22) 22 10.8 51.8 159.5

19. Douglas Deeds, RF, MIN (25) 25 11.1 42.8 153.8

20. Daniel Ortmeier, RF, SFN (25) 25 12.2 29.8 151.8

21. Josh Kroeger, RF, PHI (23) 23 9.9 50.9 149.7

22. Eddy Martinez-Esteve, LF, SFN (22) 22 11.1 36.0 147.4

23. Nate Schierholtz, RF, SFN (22) 22 11.0 37.3 147.2

24. John Raglani, LF, LAN (23) 23 11.5 30.5 145.3

25. David Espinosa, RF, DET (24) 24 10.3 42.2 144.9

26. Tony Blanco, LF, WAS (24) 24 8.1 63.7 144.2

27. Andre Ethier, LF, LAN (24) 24 11.2 28.5 140.8

28. Matt Diaz, LF, ATL (28) 28 9.7 43.0 139.8

29. Jason Cooper, LF, CLE (25) 25 9.5 37.1 131.6

30. Prentice Redman, LF, SLN (26) 26 9.5 35.1 130.5

31. Matt Watson, RF, OAK (27) 27 9.4 35.9 129.8

32. Nicholas Stavinoha, RF, SLN (24) 24 9.2 35.2 126.8

33. Jay Bruce, RF, CIN (19)** 19 8.2 41.8 124.1

34. Brian Stavisky, LF, OAK (25) 25 8.6 32.3 118.4

35. Justin Ruggiano, RF, LAN (24) 24 8.3 28.7 112.1

36. Paul McAnulty, LF, SDN (25) 25 8.1 31.4 111.9

37. Nolan Reimold, RF, BAL (22) 22 8.6 25.5 111.3

38. Brad Nelson, LF, MIL (23) 23 7.6 31.0 106.7

** Small sample size warning

++ Injury adjustment

PECOTA thinks that Delmon Young is one of the three best prospects in baseball; I'll leave you hanging

as to the identities of the other two. Nevertheless, I suspect people

understate the risk associated with Young. In Young's case, that risk

isn't a complete washout, but that his plate approach doesn't mature

and he winds up as a .270/.300/.500 guy, which wouldn't be especially

desirable coming from a right fielder. Now, there's nothing about Young

in particular that triggers this dose of skepticism; his plate

discipline will probably improve. It's just that, almost by definition,

every prospect has some sort of issue, and Young is no exception. While

some prospects are more likely than others to overcome that issue, it's

never a sure thing to assume that a human being is going to start doing something in the future that he isn't doing in the present.

Jeremy Hermida is supposed to be a stathead darling; this is a very good ranking, but it might disappoint a few people. There are a couple of issues here. Firstly, Hermida's walks have constituted a good chunk of his value in the minor leagues, and a walk rate that high isn't going to translate completely to the majors. This is about as close to a fact of life as it gets for a hitting prospect. Hermida walked in about 22% of his plate appearances at Carolina last year; we're projecting that number to drop to 13% in the majors.

A major reason for the decline is that Hermida's power hitting ability is good, but not great (just yet). We're projecting Hermida to post a .439 slugging average. I went into our database and ran a search for the highest walk rates in the past decade among hitters who had a slugging average of .450 or less.

Highest Walk Rates Since 1996; Maximum .450 SLG, Minimum 500 PA:

Player Year Age Height BB% SLG

Rickey Henderson 1996 37 6'0" 19.2% .344

Tony Phillips 1996 37 5'10" 19.2% .399

Gary Sheffield 1997 28 5'11" 18.6% .446

Rickey Henderson 1998 39 6'0" 18.2% .347

Jose Cruz Jr. 2003 29 6'0" 15.7% .414

John Olerud 2000 31 6'5" 15.7% .439

Tony Phillips 1997 38 5'10" 15.7% .391

Erubiel Durazo 2003 29 6'3" 15.4% .430

Rickey Henderson 1997 38 6'0" 14.9% .342

Jose Offerman 1999 30 6'0" 14.8% .435

Tim Salmon 2001 32 6'3" 14.8% .383

Mark Grace 2000 36 6'2" 14.6% .429

Barry Larkin 1999 35 6'0" 14.3% .420

Brandy Anderson 2000 36 6'1" 14.2% .421

It's very rare for a major league hitter to draw walks in more than 13 or 15 percent of his plate appearances if he doesn't represent a very significant power threat. Pitchers will simply throw him too many strikes, especially if there are some holes in his plate coverage. The guys who proved the exceptions to the rule were either very old, savvy hitters, or were short players who didn't have as much of a strike zone to defend (Hermida is 6'4"). Most of the exceptions came before the strike zone was enlarged in 2001. On top of the magically disappearing walks, it might also seem that PECOTA doesn't expect Hermida to grow very much; it has his EqA increasing by just 11 points from age 22 to age 26. I thought at first that it took Hermida as a low risk, medium reward guy--sort of a supercharged Daric Barton. But that isn't actually the case; there are quite a few high upside career paths in his forecast. The problem is that there are also a lot more complete bust-outs then you'd expect to see in a prospect of this stature.

The issue may be with the comparables selection; Hermida's similarity index of 20 is on the threshold of what we'd call "highly unique". Once again, this comes back to his walk rate. Players who walk this often this young are rare enough to begin with. Those who do are almost invariably poor athletes, ranging on the spectrum from John Olerud to Jack Cust. But Hermida is much more athletic than someone like Olerud or Cust, and virtually all of his comparables require making some sort of less-than-comfortable compromise. Still, I stand behind this forecast, especially considering that there are scouting concerns about his taking too many hittable pitches, something that could become more of a problem against major league pitchers who are better at hitting the corners.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4765

They also had something in their transactions analysis today (written by a different author), but it was mostly garbage that wasn't especially well researched (such as projecting Helms as a potential starting 3B) , as BP has recently begun to publish more frequently.