November 26, 200718 yr Catcher: David Ross: 110 games, 330 ABs, .230/.310/.464 20 HRs Javier Valentin: 104, 290, .266/.326/.407 8 HRs 1B Joey Votto: 135, 460, .307/.388/.526 23 HRs Scott Hatteberg: 55, 180 .272/.370/.394 4 HRs 2B Brandon Phillips: 155, 630 .270/.318/.440 23 HRs Jorge Cantu: 75, 180, .272/.328/.456 6 HRs SS Alex Gonzalez: 120, 425, .254/.308/.416 13 HRs Jeff Keppinger: 80, 255, .322/.382/.420 3 HRs 3B Edwin Encarnacion: 137, 494, .296/.366/.490 20 HRs Ryan Freel: 114, 381, .265/.347/.367 5 HRs RF Ken Griffey Jr.: 125, 495, .263/.353/.487 29 HRs Jay Bruce: 143, 535 .308/.363/.602 36 HRs CF Josh Hamilton: 115, 410 .305/.382/.598 31 HRs Norris Hopper: 90, 220, .318/.362/.364 0 HRs LF Adam Dunn: 158, 566, .251/.386/.537 43 HRs Name: Games, ABs, .avg/.obp/.slg HRs Total Homers from that group: 264 (and that doesn't take into account pitchers) Maajor League Record for Homers: 264 by the 1997 Seattle Mariners Homers by the Reds' OF: 130 If Jay Bruce and Josh Hamilton slugs over .600 and more the 30 homers each, drinks are on me.
November 26, 200718 yr I don't know how he comes up with these projections but the number of ABs he assigned to some of the positions are ridiculous. For example, he assigned over 2200 ABs to the OFs and 810 to the 2B so I have to say his 264 HR team projection is useless.
November 26, 200718 yr so besides Bruce, what's so terrible about these projections? You talkin' to me?
November 26, 200718 yr I think the Griffey and Bruce projections are assuming Griffey is not playing for the Reds next season.
November 26, 200718 yr I don't know how he comes up with these projections but the number of ABs he assigned to some of the positions are ridiculous. For example, he assigned over 2200 ABs to the OFs and 810 to the 2B so I have to say his 264 HR team projection is useless. I think the Griffey and Bruce projections are assuming Griffey is not playing for the Reds next season. Bing to the O.
November 26, 200718 yr so besides Bruce, what's so terrible about these projections? You talkin' to me? I was talking to the title of this thread
November 26, 200718 yr Author I think the Griffey and Bruce projections are assuming Griffey is not playing for the Reds next season. That would make more sense. so besides Bruce, what's so terrible about these projections? Joey Votto: 135, 460, .307/.388/.526 23 HRs Jay Bruce: 143, 535 .308/.363/.602 36 HRs Josh Hamilton: 115, 410 .305/.382/.598 31 HRs You think all 3 of those guys will hit over .300 and OPS over .900? That would be too good to be true. I don't think it's realistic to expect Hopper and Keppinger to hit over .300 again as well.
November 26, 200718 yr I think the Griffey and Bruce projections are assuming Griffey is not playing for the Reds next season. That would make more sense. so besides Bruce, what's so terrible about these projections? Joey Votto: 135, 460, .307/.388/.526 23 HRs Jay Bruce: 143, 535 .308/.363/.602 36 HRs Josh Hamilton: 115, 410 .305/.382/.598 31 HRs You think all 3 of those guys will hit over .300 and OPS over .900? That would be too good to be true. I don't think it's realistic to expect Hopper and Keppinger to hit over .300 again as well. playing in the sandbox known as the GAB, nothing is out of the question and besides, they're minor league track record and few major league at bats suggest they can all hit .300 or better
November 26, 200718 yr Author How many runs would a lineup score that looks like this? 1. 1B Joey Votto: .307/.388/.526 23 HRs 2. 3B Edwin Encarnacion: 296/.366/.490 20 HRs 3. LF Adam Dunn: .251/.386/.537 43 HRs 4. CF Jay Bruce: 308/.363/.602 36 HRs 5. RF Josh Hamilton: .305/.382/.598 31 HRs 6. 2B Brandon Phillips: 270/.318/.440 23 HRs 7. SS Alex Gonzalez: .254/.308/.416 13 HRs 8. C David Ross: .230/.310/.464 20 HRs Or make what ever lineup you want out of that. That lineup would score an ungodly amount of runs. If his predictions come anywhere near true, then the Reds are going to win the Central easily. And yes, I know pitching wins championships, but I'd love to see a lineup that matches up with those numbers in the last 20 years of baseball history. I just have a hard time believe all 3 of those guys (Bruce, Hamilton, Votto) with very little expierence, would put up those kinds of numbers in their first/secnd years.
November 26, 200718 yr A 'quirk' in Bill James' projections has always been his thought/idea/base that minor league hitting stats are as good an indicator of major league stats as major league stats are. He treats them virtually as equals. However you feel about that is whatever, but his track record speaks for itself.
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