Jump to content

MurphDogg

Members
  • Posts

    6
  • Joined

  • Last visited

MurphDogg's Achievements

Hammerhead

Hammerhead (1/8)

  • First Post
  • Week One Done
  • One Month Later
  • One Year In
  • Five Years In

Recent Badges

0

Reputation

  1. Willingham has averaged 2.4 WAR the last 4 years. Olsen averaged 1.2 WAR from 2006-2008, and his 2006 was probably a fluke. Uggla has averaged 3.65 WAR. So the cumulative impacts, according to WAR, have been roughly equal. But it's always more valuable coming from just one player, and they made $5.75 million this past year, so not too much different than what Uggla will probably get for 2010. Also, Willingham is a much more significant injury risk than Uggla, and Uggla's BB% looked really good, and his other peripherals showed improved plate discipline. And he did all this with a BABIP 20 points below average. I him garnering a good chunk more than Hammer/Olsen; I hope the Marlins focus on one or two better (SP) prospects, rather than 3 lesser prospects (although Smolinski had a nice year). A few problems with this analysis. First, Uggla will only be under team control for another two seasons, unlike Olsen and Willingham who each had three seasons at the time of the trade. Second, there was a belief at the time that Olsen could get better, the Nationals weren't trying to acquire a 1.2 WAR pitcher, they thought they were getting someone more valuable. Third, WAR is skewed in favor of hitters over pitchers, which has the effect of undervaluing pitchers in straight comparisons, simply add up the numbers if you don't believe this. Fourth, none of Uggla's suggested destinations want him as a second baseman which is where some of his WAR value comes from, thus he is not as valuable to the teams looking to acquire him as WAR might suggests. I think an average team's #3 and #8 prospects are approximate fair value for Uggla in the current situation.
  2. If Uggla were traded to the Orioles, i'd want Brad Bergesen and Nolan Reimold.Coghlan moves to 2B and Reimold will start in LF.It works out perfectly. Nolan Reimold had better offensive numbers last season than Uggla and he is under team control for another six years. Obviously Uggla plays a more premium position, but Reimold is probably not and his peak yet and he will make the minimum for the next 3 seasons. Bergesen had a fluky injury that ended his season early when he was getting consideration for Rookie of the Year. He doesn't strike out enough hitters but with his control he looks like no worse than a number four starter and is likewise under team control for another six years. Also, the word is that Uggla has no interest in moving to third so unless he changes his mind, the Orioles won't be in the trade picture. The Orioles don't make much sense because they won't be competitive next season, and likely will not be competitive in the following season after which Uggla will hit free agency. It doesn't make much sense for a team like that to trade for two seasons of someone like Uggla, better off retaining the prospects that they would give up for Uggla, probably Erbe + a C prospect, and signing Atkins (assuming he is released) or Beltre, who would provide less pop but are better defensively at third.
  3. Rumor has it the Marlins have added two runs in the bottom of the 4th.
  4. We finally got a hit. No idea who got it but we did. According to Roch Kubatko, Abercrombie hit a bloop double off Brian Finch.
  5. Complete coverage > Maine, the other arm in the deal, shot through Baltimore's Minor League system before encountering some stiff resistance in the Major Leagues. The former sixth-round draft pick has a 24-13 record with a 2.75 ERA in the Minors, but in the big leagues, he's just 2-4 with a 6.60 mark. He was expected to battle for Baltimore's fifth starting slot in Spring Training. Those numbers which look pretty impressive don't take into account Maine's 6-11 4.56 ERA season last year. In actuality he has an ERA of 3.24 ERA in the minors with a record of 30-24. Also, last year was his second season at AAA and he did nothing to show that he is more than a long-reliever/#5 starter in the majors.
  6. I read in one of the many articles today that she is from Columbia, MD which is 20-25 miles from Baltimore and where I was raised... I wonder whether she went to my high school...
×
×
  • Create New...