Lowell an unlikely cleanup hitter

[PBMarlin]

Lowell an unlikely cleanup hitter

 

By Joe Capozzi, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Saturday, April 3, 2004

 

JUPITER -- Former Marlin Kevin Millar was looking at the National League home-run leaders last July when he felt the urge to leave one of his famous sarcasm-laced messages on Mike Lowell's cellphone.

 

" 'What's wrong with this picture?' " Millar said. " 'Home-run leaders: Barry Bonds. Mike Lowell. Jim Edmonds... Mike Lowell?' "

 

Never mind what his pals think, Lowell is the first to admit that he doesn't consider himself in the class of baseball's elite home-run hitters. A cleanup hitter?

 

"I never would have envisioned myself being a cleanup hitter in the big leagues... because I don't have the raw power,'' said Lowell, who led the Marlins with a career-high 32 homers last year.

 

"I view a cleanup hitter as Jim Thome, Preston (Wilson), or (Jason) Giambi. They might not be.300 hitters every year, but they're going to hit you 40 every year. I don't see myself as that type of hitter.''

 

See it or not, cleanup is where Lowell will bat in manager Jack McKeon's lineup Tuesday when the World Series champion Marlins open their season against the Montreal Expos.

 

Lowell hadn't hit a home run this spring going into Friday night's game against the Mets. "Maybe I'm saving them all,'' he joked.

 

With Derrek Lee gone, the Marlins will need as many as they can get from Lowell, the only hitter on the team with at least 30 homers last season.

 

Lowell might have hit 40 if he hadn't missed most of the final month of the season with a broken left hand. He hit eight home runs each in April and May, then hit nine in June and coasted into the All-Star break with 28 home runs, two behind Bonds and tied for second in the NL with Edmonds.

 

Most of those came from the No. 4 spot, even though he started the season batting fifth behind Lee before Lee was dropped in the order in April after cooling off. Lowell cooled off, too, after the All-Star break then suffered the hand injury and hit just four more.

 

"Last year just seemed like when you go in that little slump, when you go 3-for-18, those three were all home runs and I still had five, six RBI, so it gets you over the hump mentally a lot easier,'' he said. "I hope it stays that way, but a lot of things have to click to hit eight, nine a month like I did the first three months."

 

Lowell, 30, was fairly typical of other cleanup hitters in the NL last year. On average last season, they batted.287, scored 99 runs and drove in 113 with 32 homers, 36 doubles. Along with his 32 homers, Lowell drove in 105 RBI and hit.276 with 27 doubles and scored 76 runs.

 

"I feel like a guy that can hit 20-plus home runs, but I don't think I'm just going to go crazy and hit 40," he said. "For the the first three months last year I hit my career high or passed it. That was something a little out of the ordinary. I'll take 40 doubles and 25 home runs, and I'll take 45 doubles and 20 home runs as long as I drive in 90 or 100.''

 

Even with Lowell's breakout power campaign, the Marlins still ranked third-to-last among NL teams in slugging from the cleanup spot (.474). Only the Dodgers' first four hitters (.250) amassed a lower batting average than those of the Marlins (.258).

 

Statistically, Lowell has a marginally better track record as a five-hole hitter. In the past three seasons he's logged a.283 average (227-for-803) batting cleanup compared to a.295 mark (188-for-637) hitting fifth.

 

Jeff Conine will bat fifth and Miguel Cabrera will hit third. "I like him nestled in there, especially if Conine gets hot,'' hitting coach Bill Robinson said.

 

"Will (Lowell) hit 50 home runs? No, he's not going to do that. He'll do just enough. I don't think we're going to set any records for home runs but I'll be surprised if we don't hit more as a team.''

 

Florida hit 157 last year.

 

Lowell considers himself more of an RBI producer, which fits nicely in a lineup that will be led off with Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo.

 

"Most teams would die to have our top two guys,'' he said. "Every team is going to have their RBI guys, but it's tough to find those guys who can get on base.''

 

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Article

[SorianoFanHFW]

Cabrera is batting third? He has no OBP though.

[nc marlin]

Cabrera is batting third? He has no OBP though.

I don't think Jack gives a sh*t about OBP or Moneyball stats.

[SorianoFanHFW]

obp isn't moneyball stats, it is the single most important stat in the game.

 

Now VORP is a typical moneyball stat.

 

Depending on how Choi does (an on base close to .400), I would bat him third so Lowell's high slugging percentage would move him about. Cabrera should be batting fifth.

 

Cabrera= .793 OPS, .325 obp

Choi= .771 OPS, .350 obp

 

I believe that higher slugging should be in the 5 hole and Choi's probably improvement drastically in the obp department makes him a good three hitter- especially because pierre and castillo aren't going anywhere.

[farmer_fran]

obp isn't moneyball stats, it is the single most important stat in the game.

 

Now VORP is a typical moneyball stat.

 

Depending on how Choi does (an on base close to .400), I would bat him third so Lowell's high slugging percentage would move him about. Cabrera should be batting fifth.

 

Cabrera= .793 OPS, .325 obp

Choi= .771 OPS, .350 obp

 

I believe that higher slugging should be in the 5 hole and Choi's probably improvement drastically in the obp department makes him a good three hitter- especially because pierre and castillo aren't going anywhere.

you have to remember though that those are very limited stats, neither player was a starter for more than half the season. Cabrera had a much better approach at the plate as the season went on. Maybe I'm a little old fashioned but I've always believed that your best hitter should hit third and Cabrera is our best hitter.

[SorianoFanHFW]

Lowell is by far your best hitter and I find it self evident that cabrera is not the kind of on base machine choi will become. Choi is not a 5 hitter, who the hell is he getting on base for?

 

I'm a believer in the best hitter bats 4th, usually. However, guys with lower batting averages but high onbases should bat third and the higher average homer guy should bat 4th.

 

Pefect example: 3.Edmonds 4.Pujols I think this is better than the other way around.

[farmer_fran]

Lowell is by far your best hitter and I find it self evident that cabrera is not the kind of on base machine choi will become. Choi is not a 5 hitter, who the hell is he getting on base for?

 

I'm a believer in the best hitter bats 4th, usually. However, guys with lower batting averages but high onbases should bat third and the higher average homer guy should bat 4th.

 

Pefect example: 3.Edmonds 4.Pujols I think this is better than the other way around.

you're right Lowell was our best hitter last year but I think we'll see that Cabrera ends up hitting for better average than Lowell, his ability to spray the ball around the field leads me to believe this. I also think you'll see him take a lot more walks this year. I've always thought that the 4th slot in the order should go to the team's best power hitter and that is Lowell for us.

 

As far as the Pujols Edmonds thing I'd have Pujols batting 3rd, I'd want him with as many at-bats as possible and I believe he'd get more pitches to hit with Edmonds batting behind him.

[SorianoFanHFW]

However, Pujols higher batting average and slugging would generate more runs moving ahead a base runner with an .400 obp. Furthermore, Edmonds would get better pitches to hit, which is a scary enough idea already.

 

Lastly, I do not think Cabrera will overtake Lowell so soon. I think one must give Lowell the benefit of the doubt because he has proven himself, not cabrera. And both cabrera and choi aren't proven, but it does seem a hell of a lot more likely choi will have the better obp.

[Ramp]

obp isn't moneyball stats, it is the single most important stat in the game.

I think the most important is the W-L record

 

yeeeah

[SorianoFanHFW]

If that were true, why did the marlins win the world series?

 

OBP, end of story