DOOD YOU NEED TO GIVE CREDIT

51. Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, Blue Jays, Age: 22

 

The Jays drafted Vermilyea in the ninth round of last year's draft. He played his college ball at New Mexico, which happens to be one of the most hostile environments for pitchers in all of baseball. But the Jays are wise enough to account for park effects, and they saw that Vermilyea had strong underlying skills. Last season, he obliterated the NY-Penn League. That's not unusual for a college-trained arm facing hitters using wood for the first time, but he was highly impressive even in that context. He was still dominant after a late-season promotion to the Florida State League. In 52 innings on the season, he struck out 78 and walked only seven. Wow. He's obviously got a long way to go, but he could be a special pitcher when all's said and done. ETA: Late 2005.

YOU HAVE 1 MORE CHANCE OR I AM LOCKING THIS THREAD

50. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Angels, Age: 20

 

 

The Angels signed Callaspo in 2001 as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela, and so far he's done nothing but hit. In three minor-league seasons, Callaspo has mustered a career .337 average. He shows gap power, doesn't strike out much and has speed on the bases. His defense, by most accounts, is strong and will allow him to stay in the middle infield at the highest level. On the downside, his walk rates need improvement, but that's really his only weakness at this point. He hasn't played above Low-A, so he'll need to perform at the higher levels. But so far there's a lot to like. ETA: 2006

49. Sean Burnett, LHP, Pirates, Age: 21

 

 

The Pirates selected Burnett out of a Florida high school in the first round of the 2000 draft. His strikeout numbers have dropped as he's moved up through the system, but his control has been absolutely tremendous. He keeps the ball in the park and lets his defense work for him. Burnett doesn't make many mistakes, and he shows good command. He wasn't as impressive in the Eastern League, so he'll be facing a critical season in 2004. Even so, the Pirates may give him a shot at the rotation coming out of spring training. However, I'm betting they'll allow him further seasoning. Kirk Reuter is a reasonable proxy for Burnett. ETA: Late 2004.

48. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins, Age: 20

 

 

The Marlins drafted Hermida with their top pick (11th overall) of the 2002 draft. He's an outfielder plucked from a Georgia high school, and scouts at the time tabbed him as the best hitter among high school outfielders in the entire draft. He struggled in rookie ball in '02, but hit well after being promoted to the NY-Penn League. This past season, he held his own in the Sally League. Most encouraging is that he hit for average (.284) and drew walks (80 BBs in 468 ABs). The power isn't there yet, but that's to be expected in hitters drafted out of high school. He's a long way from the majors, but he's putting together a nice skill set. If he makes strides with his power, and he probably will, he'll emerge as a top prospect. Keep your eye on this one. ETA: 2006.

47. Russ Adams, SS, Blue Jays, Age: 23

 

 

Adams, the Jays' top pick of 2002 out of UNC, is the Jays' shortstop of the future. He's drawn walks at every level, but hasn't hit for power or average since leaving the NY-Penn League. It may be that his future will be as a quality utility infielder at the highest level, but the Jays believe he'll leverage his on-base skills to such a degree that he'll make a quality regular at the highest level. ETA: 2005.

46. Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies, Age: 18

 

 

Here's a projection ranking, but one that's justified. The Rockies nabbed Stewart out of a Garden Grove, Calif. high school with the tenth overall pick of the 2003 draft and signed him for $1.95 million. Scouts regarded him as being among the best pure hitters in the draft. After signing, he destroyed the Pioneer League and was voted by opposing managers as the circuit's best prospect. He might not have the glove to remain at third base, but he'll hit no matter where he plays. He's a long way from the majors, but his power potential is incredible. ETA: Late 2006.

45. Terrmel Sledge, OF, Expos, Age: 26

 

 

That the best position prospect in the Expos' system will turn 27 before opening day is a stinging indictment of the organization's eye for talent, but even so Sledge is a nice prospect. He's a Long Beach State product who can hit for average, steal bases and draw walks. Prior to this season, he'd failed to hit for power at the higher levels. But this year at Triple-A Edmonton, he's slugging .545. Edmonton is a hitter-friendly environment, but it's progress nonetheless. Given his age, it's doubtful Sledge will ever approach stardom, but he does project as an excellent fourth outfielder-type, and might even be a productive regular for a few years. ETA: 2004.

43. Guillermo Quiroz, C, Blue Jays, Age: 22

 

 

The Jays signed Quiroz in 1998 as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela. Other than some occasional flashes of power, he was nothing special for the first four years of his career. This past season, however, things were different. Playing in the Eastern League as a 21-year-old, Quiroz put up a batting line of .282 AVG/.372 OBP/.518 SLG. Additionally, he showed a much better walk rate than he had in previous seasons. He has a strong arm behind the plate, and the organization is pleased with how his game-calling skills have progressed. But it's his power potential that's his calling card. He's the catcher of the future in Toronto, and that wasn't the case a year ago. In 2004, he'll need to improve this past season's performance wasn't a fluke. ETA: Late 2004.

42. J.J. Davis, OF, Pirates, Age: 25

 

 

Davis is already 25, and his minor league record of performance is a mixed bag. However, it's his burgeoning power potential that merits your attention. In 2002 at AA-Altoona, Davis slugged a hefty .526. The trend continued in 2003 when he slugged .554 at AAA-Nashville. He doesn't hit for high averages and his plate discipline needs work, but he does have a power stroke. With Reggie Sanders now in St. Louis, Davis will compete for the starting right field job next spring. He wasn't impressive in a late-season look-see in Pittsburgh, but it was a very small sample of plate appearances. ETA: 2004.

41. Dioner Navarro, C, Yankees, Age: 20

 

 

Navarro, a 2000 signee out of Venezuela, showed good power in the low minors and decent on-base skills. However, last season after a mid-year promotion to Double-A, he caught fire. For Trenton, Navarro hit an impressive .341 in 208 ABs. When a 19-year-old hits .341 in the Eastern League, he's worth following. To be fair, batting average is the offensive statistic most prone to fluke performances, but even accounting for that his performance is highly impressive. Navarro needs to improve his plate patience and show more raw power. But keep an eye on him; he could be one of the best prospects in the game this time next year. And teams are starting to notice; Navarro's name has come up frequently in recent trade discussions, but thus far the Yanks have resisted. ETA: 2005.

40. Aaron Hill, SS, Blue Jays, Age: 21

 

 

The Jays took Hill out of LSU with the 14th overall pick of the 2003 draft. Hill's a natural shortstop, but Russ Adams' presence may eventually force him to second base. He's a highly skilled hitter who did it all in college against premium competition. Hill, after signing, was highly impressive in the NY-Penn League, showing an ability to hit for average, plate discipline and gap power. After a late-season promotion to the Florida State League his numbers declined, but that's to be expected for a recent draftee toiling in a pitcher's circuit. It's hard to tell how he'll grade out, but his potential as a middle-infield bat is quite impressive. 2004 will be critical for him. ETA: Late 2005

39. Angel Guzman, RHP, Cubs, Age: 22

 

 

The bad: Guzman suffered a fairly serious arm injury this past season, and that's enough to raise concerns about him going forward. The good: Guzman's reportedly faring well in rehab. Oh, and he's posted solid strikeout rates throughout the minors. In particular, this past season he logged a strong 3.3 K/BB ratio while pitching for Double-A West Tennesee, which is mostly a hitter's environment. He's also stingy with the homers (only 15 allowed in 355 career innings as a pro), which is an important, if overlooked, indicator in a young pitcher. He needs to prove he can stay healthy, but he's already pitched well against advanced competition. 2004 will be a big year for him. ETA: 2005.

38. Chad Gaudin, RHP, Devil Rays, Age: 20

 

 

The Rays aren't long on pitching prospects, but one they do have is Gaudin. Tampa selected Gaudin with a 34th-round pick in the 2001 draft. He's worked as a starter in the minors, but his future at the highest level may be as a reliever. Even so, his starter credentials are fairly strong: 218.2 minor league innings, 199 strikeouts, 63 walks, seven homers allowed. As you can see, Gaudin has command, good control and an ability to keep the ball in the park. As much trouble as the Rays have had with developing starters, you'd think they'd give him a shot at the rotation once he's ready. Then again, the Rays rarely make sense in their personnel decisions. ETA: Late 2004.

37. Mike Fontenot, 2B, Orioles, Age: 23

 

 

Fontenot, a first-round selection in 2001 out of LSU, came out of the gate unimpressively. This past season, however, he was a different player at Double-A Bowie. He drastically improved his batting average and on-base percentage, showed much more power and modestly improved his plate discipline. Fontenot began using contact lenses prior to the 2003 season and worked at using the whole field. It's impossible to know whether that's the root of his improvement, but improve he did. Some skepticism is warranted since he only has a single strong season under his belt, but he's trending upward for sure. If he cobbles together another strong season, he's the real deal. ETA: 2005.

36. Adam Wainwright, RHP, Cardinals, Age: 22

 

 

The Cardinals nabbed Wainwright from the Braves as part of the J.D. Drew winter-meetings blockbuster this past December. He immediately became the best prospect in the Cardinal system. Many scouts are disappointed that Wainwright, a classic, big-bodies right-hander, hasn't increased his velocity beyond average levels. However, Wainwright has made strides with his performance. His strikeout rate declined this past season at Double-A Greenville, but so did his walk rate. The result was his best K/BB ratio since he was in the Sally League in 2001. He's always had impressive numbers, but now it appears he's becoming a pitcher. He could be in the rotation in St. Louis before the end of 2004. ETA: Late 2004.

35. Greg Miller, LHP, Dodgers, Age: 19

 

 

With the 31st overall pick of the 2002 draft, the Dodgers took Greg Miller. Miller logged strong numbers this past season in the Florida State League (despite having skipped low-A altogether) and was absolutely dominant in a 26.2-inning trial in Double-A. That's a small sample, to be sure, but when an 18-year-old strikes out 40 in 26.2 innings in the high minors, you'd best pay attention. He has better control at this point than Scott Kazmir and Cole Hamels ? two more ballyhooed young lefties ? but his strikeout rates haven't been as impressive. But he does do a fine job of keeping the ball in the park. He has some shoulder concerns going into 2004, but if he's healthy and once again thrives in Double-A on an extended basis, he'll be much higher next year. Unless, of course, he's already be in the Los Angeles rotation. But now that Paul DePodesta's in charge, Miller may be on a more conservative promotion track. ETA: 2005.

34. Matt Riley, LHP, Orioles, Age: 24

 

 

Once upon a time (1999, to be exact), Riley was one of the best pitching prospects in the game. But behavioral problems and torn elbow ligaments derailed his career. After missing an entire year and then pitching poorly upon his return, he rebounded from arm surgery and is back as one of the best. He's not a youngster anymore, but he's poised to be an immediate contributor at the highest level. He split time between the Eastern and International Leagues last season and was impressive at both stops. His control slipped a bit at AAA-Ottawa, but the strikeout rates are there, and he did a solid job of preventing homers. He'll likely open the season in the Baltimore rotation, and will be given every opportunity to stick at the highest level. ETA: 2004.

33. Ervin Santana, RHP, Angels, Age: 21

 

 

Santana, who was signed out of the Dominican in 2000 as a non-drafted free agent, began drawing attention after his impressive strikeout performance in the rookie-level Arizona League. This past season, he looked strong in the hitter-friendly Cal League, fanning more than a batter per inning and showing good command. Late in the season, he earned a promotion to Double-A and looked solid despite being younger than his peers and toiling in the hitter-friendly Texas League. Santana must refine his breaking pitches, and if he does he'll emerge as one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game. Santana will spend all of 2004 in the high minors, which will be a critical test for him. ETA: 2005.

32. Chris Snelling, OF, Mariners, Age: 22

 

 

Snelling, an Aussie, was signed by the M's as a non-drafted free agent in 1999. He's already earned plaudits for his hard-nosed, all-out playing style, but some have also blamed that for his penchant for injury. Prior to last season, he'd put up very impressive numbers in parts of four minor league seasons. After a late-season call-up to Seattle in 2002, Snelling tore his ACL and missed several months. His numbers weren't impressive last season in the PCL, but it was in some ways a lost year because of his mending knee. When healthy, Snelling hits for average, shows good power to the gaps, runs the bases well and plays strong defense at the corners. The only question at this point is whether he can stay healthy. If he does, he's a good one. ETA: Mid 2004.

31. Josh Barfield, 2B, Padres, Age: 21

 

 

Barfield, son of Jesse, has put up eye-popping numbers since being drafted as a fourth-rounder in 2001, and he's coming off his best season yet. In the Cal League, he hit .337, improved his walk rate and smacked 68 extra-base hits. His walk rate still needs improvement, but he's working on that. He'll open 2004 at Double-A Mobile, which will be his first taste of the high minors and a more pitcher-friendly environment. If he succeeds at Double A as a 21-year-old, he'll be one of the best prospects in the game. By the time Mark Loretta's contract is up, he'll likely be manning the keystone in San Diego. ETA: Late 2005.

30. Joe Blanton, RHP, A's, Age: 23

 

Blanton, a first-rounder in 2002 out of the University of Kentucky, signed too late to see much action that same year. However, in 2003 he put together an excellent season, spending most of the year in the Midwest League. He was older than most of his peer group, but, even so, his numbers there were plainly impressive (133 innings, 2.57 ERA, 144 strikeouts, 7.6 K/BB ratio). He skipped High-A altogether and again looked strong in 35 late-season innings at the Double-A level. Scouts regard his stuff as roughly average, but his repertoire is deep and the performance has certainly been there. His command has been superb thus far, and he does a solid job of keeping the ball in the park. He'll spend almost all of 2004 in the high minors, and it'll be a critical year for him. Right now, he looks like another fine college arm for Oakland. The A's, of course, have an embarrassment of riches in the rotation and can afford to be patient with Blanton. ETA: 2005.

29. Ryan Wagner, RHP, Reds, Age: 21

 

The Reds selected Wagner out of the University of Houston with the 14th overall pick of the 2003 draft. After pitching only ten innings in the minors, he landed a late-season setup role in Cincinnati. Wagner has great velocity and nasty breaking stuff, which allowed him to set the NCAA strikeout record during his junior season. He pitched quite well in 21.2 innings at the major league level (25 strikeouts, 1.66 ERA), and he'll spend the entire 2004 season as the top right-handed middle reliever out of the Reds' pen. With Danny Graves returning to the closer role, Wagner will have to wait for his save opportunities, but one day, he'll be closing games for the Reds. Despite some concerns surrounding his mechanics, he has a very bright future. There's also been loose talk of trying him as a starter. ETA: Now.

28. J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers, Age: 21

 

Hardy was a second-rounder in 2001. In previous seasons, he hadn't put up strong numbers at any level, and he was particularly bad after a late-season promotion to Double-A Huntsville in ‘02. In 2003, he was back in the Southern League, but this time he performed much better. What's most encouraging is that he posted a strong walk rate for the first time in his career. Some skepticism is warranted since it's the first strong showing of his career and he was getting a second look at the circuit. However, he was only 20 years of age for most of the season, and 20-year-olds who handle Double-A are worth watching. That goes double if he happens to man the most important defensive position on the diamond. ETA: Late 2004.