27. Khalil Greene, SS, Padres, Age: 24

 

Greene, the Pads' top pick of the 2002 draft out of Clemson, will probably open the 2004 season as the starting shortstop in San Diego. The organization loves his defense and feels his bat will eventually come along. He has a strong record of performance in the low minors, but his numbers in Double- and Triple-A haven't been as impressive. He improved after a mid-season promotion to AAA-Portland, but he hasn't shown a good batting eye since he was in the Cal League. There will be a lengthy adjustment period for him, but once he adapts he'll be a good one. With an otherwise veteran lineup, the Padres will be patient with him. His plate patience may never be a strong suit, but he should have good power for a shortstop. ETA: 2004.

26. James Loney, 1B, Dodgers, Age: 19

 

Loney, the Dodgers' top pick of the 2002 draft, played both ways in high school, but the Dodgers quickly settled on him as a hitter. So far, that's been a wise decision. He destroyed the Pioneer League in 2002 and held his own at high-A Vero Beach for the last two months of the season before fracturing his wrist. He returned to Vero Beach this past season, but didn't fare very well. That said, he was young for High-A and still wasn't fully recovered from his broken wrist. 2004 will be critical for him. Scouts love his swing, and considering the circumstances his performance last season wasn't bad at all. ETA: 2006.

25. David Bush, RHP, Blue Jays, Age: 24

 

The Jays are quietly building a highly impressive corps of minor league arms, and Bush is a big part of that. You don't hear his name as often as some other pitching prospects, but he's certainly put up the numbers thus far. In 193.2 minor league innings, he's struck out 196, walked only 37 and posted a 2.74 ERA. This past season at AA-New Haven, he was impressive once again. Bush also does a solid job of preventing homers. He's a bit old for a prospect, but his record of performance is unassailable. He'll probably be in the Jays' rotation in 2005. ETA: 2005.

24. Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians, Age: 21

 

Sizemore is one of the many prospects the Indians landed in the Bartolo Colon trade with Montreal in 2002. He's fast and athletic and has shown good plate discipline at most stops along the way. He has the defensive skills to play center, which increases his value going forward, but he'll likely wind up at a corner position at the highest level. This past season at AA-Akron, he hit .304, but his walk rate dropped. He did, however, show good power. He's yet to post a tremendous SLG at any stop, but scouts insist the power will come. At 6-2, 200 pounds, he's certainly built for it. On balance, his performance in Double-A as a 20-year-old is highly promising. I like his chances to turn into something very special. I'm not as high on him as some are, but once the performance catches up with the hype--and I think that will happen--I'll be on his bandwagon. ETA: 2005.

23. Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Dodgers, Age: 21

 

The Dodgers signed Gutierrez in 2000 as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela. He had an unremarkable debut in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, but since then he's shown developed an impressive power stroke. In 2003, he slugged .513 in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, despite being generally younger than his peer group. After a late-season promotion to AA-Jacksonville, he slugged .597 in limited action. He'll begin 2004 back in the Southern League as a 21-year-old. He needs to improve his walk rate, but otherwise he has everything you want in a hitter. You'll find few young hitters with better raw power. Now that Paul DePodesta is in charge, the Dodgers will likely begin preaching walk rates at the minor league level. That may be just what Gutierrez needs. ETA: 2005.

22. Jason Bay, OF, Pirates, Age: 25

 

 

 

Bay has 87 (impressive) at bats at the highest level, but he's already on his fourth organization. Drafted by the Expos as a 22nd-rounder in 2000, he was then dealt to the Mets and then to the Padres. The Pirates nabbed him last season as part of the Brian Giles blockbuster with San Diego. He's been a consistent hitter in the minors. He's batted .300, drawn walks at an impressive clip and shown emerging power. His performance in the upper minors the past couple of seasons has been especially impressive. He's already 25, so that lowers his ceiling somewhat, but you'll be hard-pressed to find many hitters who are better at the critical skills--hitting for power and commanding the strike zone. He has some shoulder worries heading into the 2004 season, but if he's healthy he's a strong bet to win NL Rookie of the Year honors. ETA: 2004.

21. Dustin McGowan, RHP, Blue Jays, Age: 21

 

McGowan was a supplemental first-rounder in 2000, and he's emerged as a top-shelf pitching prospect. He's always posted good strikeout numbers, but this past season he made impressive strides with his control and, ergo, his command. At mid-season, he was promoted to Double-A New Haven, and he posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his young career. It's highly impressive that he made such strides while facing high-minors competition for the first time. He'll likely open the 2005 season in Toronto, and he has legit front-of-the-rotation potential. ETA: 2005.

20. Alexis Rios, OF, Blue Jays, Age: 23

 

Prior to 2003, Rios, a first-rounder in 1999, didn't look like much of a prospect. But that's before he completely exploded in the Double-A Eastern League. This past season, playing for New Haven, Rios, in 514 ABs, put up a batting line of .352 AVG/.402 OBP/.521 SLG. That's impressive. There are some causes for skepticism. One, 2003 was the first uniformly strong season in his career, and, two, a lot of his value is tied up in his batting average, which is the statistic most subject to random fluctuation. Still, that he tore up the high minors to such a degree is hard to ignore. He needs to improve his walk rate and prove 2003 wasn't a fluke. I like his chances on both counts. He's in an organization that highly values plate discipline, and he's not going to be rushed. ETA: Late 2004.

19. David DeJesus, OF, Royals, Age: 24

 

Here's one of the most underrated prospects in the game. DeJesus, a fourth-rounder in 2000 out of Rutgers, has battled injuries for much of his career, but when he's played he's been outstanding. He shows good defense in center and outstanding on-base skills (.400 career OBP). He also has gap power abilities and is a career .296 hitter. Still, after suffering a fractured elbow and two shoulder injuries and undergoing Tommy John surgery, his ability to stay healthy is highly dubious. If he's able to curtail his penchant for injuries, his upside may be in Brady Anderson territory. Minus the fluke 50-homer season, of course. With Carlos Beltran headed for free agency, you may see DeJesus starting in center in 2005. ETA: Late 2004.

18. Delmon Young, OF, Devil Rays, Age: 18

 

 

Young, little brother of Dmitri, was the first overall pick of the June draft. He signed too late to play in the regular season, but he did impress with his performance in the Arizona Fall League. Scouts can't say enough about his power potential, and comparisons to a young Albert Belle have been uttered in many corners. He has a broad base of hitting skills, tremendous raw power and an ability to hit to all fields. He won't be a stellar defender (although he does have a strong arm in right), but it's his bat that will take him places. The Rays have a history of aggressive promotion when it comes to their top prospects, so Young will be on the fast track. That's probably not ideal from a developmental standpoint, but it's likely the path he'll take. ETA: 2006.

17. David Wright, 3B, Mets, Age: 21

 

The Mets picked Wright as a supplemental first-rounder in 2001 out of high school. In rookie ball and the low-A Sally League, he showed excellent plate discipline and good gap power. He runs the bases well and shows a good glove at the hot corner. This year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, he maintained his high walk rate and showed improved power. He'll face Double-A next season as a 21-year-old, and if he performs well he'll be one of the best prospects in the game. ETA: Late 2005.

16. Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels, Age: 21

 

Kotchman has excellent plate discipline (more walks than strikeouts), can hit for average and plays good defense. His power stroke hasn't come yet, but he did hit 30 doubles in 288 ABs in the Midwest League last season. Those doubles may turn into to homers once he matures. On the downside, Kotchman's had an unfortunate run of wrist and forearm injuries ? the kind of injuries that can hinder the developing power of a young hitter. He's a great natural hitter, though. He dominated the Cal League this past season and shouldn't have much trouble adapting to the high minors. If his power develops as it should and he stays healthy, he could be a top-tier first baseman in the majors. There are some reasons to worry, but the hitting skills are there. ETA: 2005.

15. Chin-Hui Tsao, RHP, Rockies, Age: 22

 

The Rox signed Tsao in 1999 as a non-drafted free agent out of Taiwan. His fastball on occasion can hit the mid-90's, and his slider is one of the best breaking pitches in the minors. Tsao also has made good progress with his changeup, so he's already working with a starter's repertoire. In 2000, he dominated the Sally League, posting a 4.7 K/BB ratio in 145 innings, but the next season he injured his elbow and missed a full year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 2002, which should've been a lost year for him, he again dominated. This past season, he breezed through the Texas League, showing outstanding command and striking out more than a batter per inning. That earned him a promotion to Colorado, and where he held his own. Injury aside, he's one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Expect great things from him if he can stay healthy. He's got a shot at cracking the Colorado rotation coming out of spring training. ETA: 2004.

14. Cole Hamels, LHP, Phillies, Age: 20

 

The Phils drafted Hamels out of a San Diego high school with the 17th overall pick of the 2002 draft. The bad news: he needs to improve his control. The good news: everything else. In 101 career innings, he's posted a 1.34 ERA, struck out 147 and surrendered exactly zero homers. Yeah, you read those correctly. He hasn't pitched above the Florida State League, and he's suffered a serious (but non-pitching) arm injury. Even so, he's one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He certainly turned some heads in a recent televised spring training outing against the Yankees. ETA: Late 2005.

13. Bobby Crosby, SS, A's, Age: 24

 

Crosby was Oakland's top pick in 200l, and he'll replace the departed Miguel Tejada in Oakland this season. He hit well the low minors, showing solid plate discipline and gap power, but didn't fare as well in Double-A in 2002. This past season, he started out struggling at AAA-Sacramento but caught fire as the year wore on and wound up with very strong numbers on the whole. The PCL is generally a hitter's haven, but Crosby performed well in any context. Particularly impressive was the power surge he showed in 2003. He's a strong bet to walk away with AL Rookie-of-the-Year honors this season. ETA: 2004.

12. Scott Kazmir, LHP, Mets, Age: 20

 

Kazmir, a first-rounder (15th overall) in 2002 out of high school, has been highly, highly impressive thus far. In '02, he blew away the short-season NY-Penn League, and this past season kept it up during stops in the Sally and Florida State Leagues. He's small in stature, but has a full repertoire and good velocity on his fastball. He keeps the ball in the park and has struck out an eye-popping 179 in 127.1 innings as a pro. He needs to improve his control a bit, but there's plenty of time for that. The Mets, perhaps still cognizant of the Bill Pulsipher/Paul Wilson/Jason Isringhausen disasters, are being very careful with Kazmir's workload. That's in his favor. So is the opportunity to work one day with new Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson. If the Mets wind up swinging a deal for Alfonso Soriano, it's rumored that Kazmir will be on his way to Texas. ETA: Late 2005.

11. Dallas McPherson, 3B, Angels, Age: 23

 

And here you have the most underrated prospect in the game. McPherson, a second-rounder in 2001 out of the Citadel, lost some of his shine after his power took a dive in 2002 in the Midwest League. However, he came back in 2003 like a man possessed. He split time in the Cal and Texas Leagues this past season and laid waste to both circuits. At Rancho Cucamonga, he hit .308 AVG/.404 OBP/.606 SLG in 292 ABs, and after a promotion to Arkansas, he kept it up, hitting .314/.426/.569. McPherson has a complete offensive package: the ability to hit for average, strong plate discipline and excellent raw power. He's an excellent prospect. ETA: Late 2004.

10. Jeff Mathis, C, Angels, Age: 20

 

 

Mauer gets more ink among catching prospects, but Mathis is a fine one in his own right. The Angels' first-round pick in 2001, Mathis made a name for himself in 2002 after he smacked 41 doubles in the Midwest League. This past season, he followed that up with a strong showing in the Cal and Texas Leagues. Like Mauer, he's been younger than his peer group at almost every stop. While his power is more apparent now than Mauer's, most scouts think Mauer's projects as better down the line. Still, Mathis is a very accomplished prospect. He'll spend all of 2004 in the high minors, and I expect to him to adjust well. He needs to improve his walk rate, but he's a career .301 hitter with a very nice power stroke ? especially for someone manning a critical defensive position. Before much longer, he'll finally bring some offense to the catcher spot in Anaheim. ETA: 2005.

9. Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins, Age: 22

 

 

Morneau, a native Canuck and a third-rounder in 1999, has put up the numbers at every stop. He hits for average, has solid on-base skills and shows excellent power. He earned a promotion to the International League this season after destroying Double-A New Britain in 79 ABs. At AAA-Rochester, his numbers declined somewhat, but it was his first exposure to Triple-A. Morneau could stand to improve his plate discipline, but as is he's a fine pure hitter. He may not have Doug Mienkiewicz's glove, but his bat will more than make up for that. He's having a very strong spring and may break camp as the regular DH in Minnesota. ETA: 2004.

8. Edwin Jackson, RHP, Dodgers, Age: 20

 

 

Jackson was a sixth-rounder in 2001 out of a Georgia high school. He has a deep repertoire, and he repeats his delivery quite well. The latter bodes well for his ability to stay healthy. In 2002, he pitched well in the Sally League, and in 2003 he did even better at Double-A Jacksonville ? as a 19-year-old ? and he even fared well in a late-season audition in the bigs. His strikeout rate jumped up, and he made strides with his command. The usual young pitcher caveats apply, but don't ignore 19-year-olds who strike out more than a batter per inning in Double-A. He'll open 2004 as a member of the Dodger rotation. He could be the next in a long line of elite Dodger aces. ETA: 2004.

7. Zack Greinke, RHP, Royals, Age: 20

 

 

The Royals nabbed Geinke out of a Florida high school with the sixth overall pick of the 2002 draft, and they haven't been disappointed. Because he signed late, Greinke pitching only 11 innings in 2002, but this past season he showed his skills in a big way. His strikeout rates aren't quite what you'd like to see from an elite pitching prospect, but his command is beyond reproach. In 87 innings at the Carolina League, he posted a 1.14 ERA and an outstanding 6.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His command got even better after a late-season promotion to Double-A. He's still very young, and history is often cruel to young arms. Even so, his command is such that it's hard not to envision a great future for him. Don't be surprised if he's in the KC rotation before season's end. ETA: Late 2004.

6. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers, Age: 19

 

 

Yes, that's the maligned Brewers with two of the top six prospects in the game. Fielder, scion of Cecil, hits the ball and straps on the feedbag ? just like Dad. The Brewers chose him with the seventh overall pick of the 2002 draft, and he's been impressive thus far. In 2002, he crushed rookie ball, and in 2003 he was quite impressive in the Midwest League (although Fielder did struggle in limited exposure to the Midwest League in '02). He hits for average, takes his walks and has excellent power. He's best suited to the DH role, and down the road that'll be a quandary for the Brewers. But for now he's one of the best pure hitters in the low minors. ETA: Late 2005.

5. B.J. Upton, SS, Devil Rays, Age: 19

 

 

Upton was the second overall pick of the 2002 draft. He's a high school-trained talent, and his athleticism and instincts have earned high praise from scouts. He has outstanding speed (105 steals in 130 games as a pro), and he's got developing offensive skills. He performed very well in the Sally League this past season and even held his own in Double-A for 102 ABs. He hit .302 in Low-A and showed excellent plate patience at both stops. The power hasn't shown up yet, but most scouts think he'll have very good gap power for a middle infielder. Right now, he looks like an excellent leadoff man at the highest level with an upside somewhere in Edgar Renteria territory (except with better base-stealing chops). Upton needs to cut down on the errors, but he should do that in time. He's got tons of promise, and he's on the fast track (then again, aren't all D-Rays prospects on the fast track?). ETA: Late 2004

4. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers, Age: 21

 

 

Weeks, a product of Southern University in Baton Rouge, was the second overall pick of the 2003 draft. After signing, he saw late-season action in Arizona Rookie and Midwest Leagues. Predictably, he destroyed them both, albeit in a limited sample of games. He has excellent power and patience at the plate, his defense is good enough for him to stick at second and he runs the bases quite well. Given his limited professional experience this is a bit of a projection grade, but he's one that scouts and statheads both love. He's on the fast track and could be starting in Milwaukee by the All-Star break. Jeff Kent-type production at the keystone isn't out of the question in his prime seasons. That's saying a lot. ETA: Late 2004.

3. Joe Mauer, C, Twins, Age: 20

 

 

The Twins took Mauer, a Minnesota native, with the top pick of the 2001 draft, passing over a little something called Mark Prior in the process. On some levels, Mauer was a signability pick, but, whatever their motivations, the Twins wound up with a gem. Mauer has a cannon arm behind the plate and, best of all, his potential with the bat is tremendous. He hits for average (a .330 hitter in three minor-league seasons), drew walks in the low minors and has developing power. Although his walk rate took a dive after a midseason promotion to Double A, 20-year-olds who hit .341 in the Eastern League are, well, very special. He needs to rediscover his plate patience and cultivate that power stroke. He'll probably do that. Some are concerned his body type (read: he's tall) will eventually force him from behind the plate. If he does stick at catcher, he's a future All-Star. He'll be Minnesota's starting catcher this season. ETA: 2004.