June 1, 200422 yr LINK Intersting article about predicting Pitchers performances. In particular predicting Cy Young candidates. Seems like Roger Clemens and Brad Penny are the current front runenrs for the NL Award this season. Interstingly, they have a stat that they use as a predictor of possible winners. Currently Danny Graves is #1 on that list. But nowhere to be found is Benitez. I would be very curious to see how in the HELL that happened, aside from 3 more saves Benitez is blowing Graves away. Here is a PART of the article... It might be close, though. Here are the top five, according to the shiny new Bill James Cy Young Predictor: Danny Graves 73.3 Roger Clemens 67.1 Brad Penny 62.5 Paul Wilson 60.8 Randy Johnson 57.9 ... with Tom Glavine and Jason Schmidt right behind, followed by a couple of Cubs (neither of them Kerry Wood or Mark Prior). Is Danny Graves going to win? It's not real likely. He gets a lot of points because he's on pace for something like 80 saves and he gets a small bonus for the Reds' current lofty place in the standings. Neither of those are likely to hold up, and anyway it's quite uncommon for a reliever to win the award. Clemens isn't more likely to win than everybody else (the field), but he's more likely to win than anybody else. Why? Because he's got everything going for him. Cy Young voters like gaudy records (7-0: check). The voters like low ERA's (2.38: check). The voters like strikeouts (76 in 64 innings: check). And the voters like first-place teams (the Astros are the best team in the National League Central, and have a very good chance of winding up on top: check). So Clemens is the No. 1 candidate, followed in approximate order by Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt (if his arm doesn't fall off), Randy Johnson, the two non-Prior/Wood Cubs (Carlos Zambrano and Matt Clement), and Jake Peavy. Sorry, but I just don't think Paul Wilson can hold on, due to both his modest strikeout rate and the eventual fourth-place finish of his team (which has been outscored this season; the Central's the only division in which the standings are wildly at odds with the run differentials). And Glavine? Well, I guess you should never say never when it comes to a future Hall of Famer. But I'll be surprised if he keeps this up all season.
June 1, 200422 yr The article came with a disclaimer that said Graves most likely won't win and is only up there because hes on pace for 80 saves. Which wont happen.
June 1, 200422 yr Author So as not to start another thread here is a snipit from a diffrent article on ESPN.com. A.J. BURNETT: Burnett What do you get the world champions with a deep, young and talent-rich starting rotation? Try one more arm, albeit one that has undergone Tommy John surgery. Remember, for all of Josh Beckett's postseason brilliance and Dontrelle Willis' startling rookie contributions, the Marlins have long contended that Burnett has the best pure stuff on their staff. He was recently clocked in the mid-90s, and with Beckett, Willis, Carl Pavano and Brad Penny, the Marlins can boast the best rotation in their division and, arguably, the second-best in the league behind a healthy Cubs staff. The Marlins have been patient with Burnett, in part because with their pitching depth, they can afford to have him take his time. Now, they're about to reap the rewards. Let the rest of the National League beware.
June 1, 200422 yr Author The article came with a disclaimer that said Graves most likely won't win and is only up there because hes on pace for 80 saves. Which wont happen. Yea I understand that, but if they are predicting the amount of saves from current stats then Benitez with his 20 I am sure is projected to end up with over 70 plus with the current Strikeout and ERA numbers he has put up I think that would still put him ahead of Graves in any measurable stat that would "predict" a Cy Young. But he again is not mentioned. I am jsut curious if maybe "SAVES" alone is what they consider for that number they got there. Weird :whistle
June 1, 200422 yr Author More ESPN goodness.... They had a lot of new articles on there today... Armando Benitez: Perfection. It's not surprising that Benitez is much more effective working someplace other than in New York, where the fans' patience for the city's Un-Rivera had long since expired, and where he was sabotaged by the whispers of more media-savvy teammates. But Benitez's level of dominance cannot be overstated. He has not allowed an earned run in almost two months, since Montreal nicked him for a run on Opening Day. In the first 15 pitches of his outings, Benitez's opponents are batting .106 with 21 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting .130 with runners in scoring position, .083 at the outset of innings. He's made 10 appearances the day after pitching and hasn't allowed any runs. All of that said, Benitez will have to confront his many October ghosts if the Marlins make the playoffs.
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