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Marlins/Dodgers trade analysis


geemoney
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http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sport...lllllllu|greg|Y

 

 

Marlins couldn't stand by and watch

 

GREG COTE

 

gcote@herald.com

 

 

Let's deal in simple declaratives here rather than remind ourselves how numbers can be bent to suit any need, and how way too many arguments resort to statistics as a sorry substitute for logic.

 

Fact I. The Marlins had two weaknesses that pulsed like midnight neon as baseball's trade deadline approached:

 

One was at catcher, where the departure of Pudge Rodriguez left an unfilled crater. The other was in the bullpen, where the bridge between the starters and the stopper was made of rickety balsa wood through which victories kept falling.

 

Fact II. The Marlins accomplished two main objectives in a predeadline flurry:

 

One was to acquire an All-Star catcher with a lively bat. The other was to acquire a short reliever who might be the best set-up man around.

 

WELL DONE

 

This puts me comfortably and whole-heartedly in the vast majority in believing the Marlins did very well in their recent dealings.

 

You are stuck with Le Basour -- much too intent to complain -- if you feel otherwise.

 

Obviously, it's too soon to know whether the trades will have proven to be successful; Florida has plenty of catching up to do to see October again.

 

MARLINS HAD TO ACT

 

For now, all we can say is that the Marlins had deficiencies and clearly needed to do something . . . and did. Give the defending champions credit for being aggressive, for not giving up on the playoffs without a fight.

 

Let's analyze what Florida principally lost and gained in broad strokes, with the fundamental reminder that you need to give up something to get something.

 

Lost: a very solid starting pitcher in Brad Penny, a pretty good bat in Hee Sop Choi and a decent outfield prospect in Abraham Nu?ez.

 

Gained: an All-Star catcher in Paul Lo Duca, a very strong set-up man (and temporary closer) in Guillermo Mota, an under-regarded bat in Juan Encarnaci?n, plus starting pitcher Ismael Valdez and reliever Rudy Seanez.

 

LATE-INNING POWER

 

You hate to lose Penny, but he was arbitration-eligible and likely would have been gone after this season anyway. Valdez is an innings-eater. The starting staff wasn't (and isn't) the problem.

 

Nu?ez and Seanez are bit parts who neutralize each other.

 

Likewise, Choi and Encarnaci?n are similar offensive producers who offset each other.

 

Bottom line, to me, the Marlins essentially gave up Penny and got Lo Duca and Mota. Mota setting up Armando Benitez gives Florida arguably the strongest late-innings combo in the majors.

 

And Lo Duca? All he did was introduce himself by going 8 for 14 with two home runs in his first few games.

 

Good trades.

 

Necessary, and smart.

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Fact I. The Marlins had two weaknesses that pulsed like midnight neon as baseball's trade deadline approached:

 

One was at catcher, where the departure of Pudge Rodriguez left an unfilled crater. The other was in the bullpen, where the bridge between the starters and the stopper was made of rickety balsa wood through which victories kept falling.

 

Fact II. The Marlins accomplished two main objectives in a predeadline flurry:

 

One was to acquire an All-Star catcher with a lively bat. The other was to acquire a short reliever who might be the best set-up man around.

 

WELL DONE

501735[/snapback]

 

hoo boy, this again.

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The financial picture isnt as bad as some of you may think. Lo Duca and Mota can both be re-signed at about what it woudl cost us to keep Penny. Enc's $5M on the books is a lot, but we can always deal him if necessary and that contract has him staying put through 06. He is better offensively than he has shown - and he has still shown some power.

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The financial picture isnt as bad as some of you may think. Lo Duca and Mota can both be re-signed at about what it woudl cost us to keep Penny. Enc's $5M on the books is a lot, but we can always deal him if necessary and that contract has him staying put through 06. He is better offensively than he has shown - and he has still shown some power.

501843[/snapback]

LoDuca and Penny are expected to be in the same ballpark come arbitration time. If we do not win the WS again please tell me why LoDuca and his agent wouldn't do everything possible to reach the free agent market with Sandy Alomar and Mike Matheny as the best catchers available.

 

It seems like so many are ignoring that Beckett and Burnett will be commanding hefty raises in abitration this winter as well.

 

Choi ranked above-average for starting 1B at the age 25 and was due to make squat. You can't replace that. You can try to backload deals and whatever else you want, but it's not going to replace a young talented bat for cheap.

 

I would have had no problem had Beinfest traded prospects for smaller additions that might have hid the lack of talent on the bench and bullpen, but it was incredible stupid to trade key pieces of your team without significantly improving the team (if disagree you must vastly overrate the role of the bullpen and what one reliever can do in 30 IP) or freeing up payroll.

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