October 6, 200421 yr Thunderstorms continue to flare up in the western Gulf of Mexico. Although very widely disorganized, models continue to hint toward further development, especially along the northwest Gulf Coast. This area will be of concern as steering winds are favorable for pushing any newly formed systems east towards Florida.
October 7, 200421 yr Isn't that the wave that scooted by us to the south over this last weekend? So much for the idea that it would only bother Texas if there were any development.
October 7, 200421 yr Author A very broad and weak area of low pressure is located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It has been the culprit that has developed off and on bursts of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the past few days across the western Gulf. With a southerly flow around a large area of high pressure guarding the eastern third of the country, this tropical moisture is captured and directed onshore toward the Texas and the Louisiana coastline. Weather model guidance suggest that this area of low pressure may try to organize further and will begin to trek northward towards Louisiana and southeast Texas spreading showers and thunderstorms inland. The area of low pressure may then take a turn to the east by early next week towards northern Florida and southern Georgia. The western Gulf of Mexico is a favorable area for tropical development during the month of October so if further organization of this disturbance takes place it may be deemed a depression.
October 8, 200421 yr Author Shouldnt form into a hurricane or tropical storm though...right? 585624[/snapback] Depends on how long it stays over the Gulf. The longer it stays on warmer waters the bigger the chances this may form into a tropical depression...
October 8, 200421 yr Author A broad area of low pressure just east of Mexico is producing an extensive area of cloudiness and showers over the western and central Gulf. Despite shearing southwest-to-west winds continue to affect the system, some development is possible over the next few days. In any case, as the system drifts into the northern Gulf, heavy rain and thunderstorms will be on the increase from coastal Texas to the Florida panhandle.
October 8, 200421 yr Author A broad but relatively weak area of low pressure just east of Mexico is producing an extensive area of cloudiness plus heavy showers and thunderstorms over the western and central Gulf. Despite shearing southwest-to-west winds aloft that continue to affect the system and keep thunderstorm development off to the east side of the circulation, a tropical depression or even a weak tropical storm could ultimately develop. In any case, as the system drifts into the northern Gulf, heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to increase along the northern Gulf Coast. Also between the low and strong high pressure over the East, winds are nearing tropical storm strength at times in the north-central and northeast Gulf. The persistent onshore winds are producing coastal flooding along portions of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi. Reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the tropical low.
October 8, 200421 yr Author 10/08/2004 17:44:16 EST Tropical Storm's Effects Felt in Louisiana NEW ORLEANS - Tropical Storm Matthew, the 13th named storm of the 2004 hurricane season, formed in the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and its effects were already being felt in Louisiana. Rain that extended hundreds of miles ahead of Matthew flooded homes in coastal Terrebonne Parish, and authorities there opened two emergency shelters. In neighboring Lafourche Parish, water covered part of Louisiana Highway 1 but the road was still passable, state police said. At 5 p.m. EDT, Matthew was located about 260 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and had top sustained winds of 40 mph. A three-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center in Miami showed the storm making landfall along the Alabama coastline Monday morning. Forecasters said they did not believe it would strengthen dramatically. "We don't forecast it to be a hurricane," said meteorologist Chris Hennon. Credit: AP
October 8, 200421 yr Author 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 ...THIRTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. STRONG WINDS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO MATTHEW...BUT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MATTHEW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW. A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDS FROM MATTHEW NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.2 N... 93.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$
October 8, 200421 yr Author THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG WINDS...48 KT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 600 FT...NEAR THE CENTER. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS POOR AND HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC...THE CORE CIRCULATION DICTATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES BE INITIATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WOULD SUPPORT AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT...THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVER A VERY SMALL AREA AND MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/9...WITH THE CENTER FOLLOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH OF MATTHEW. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SEPARATE BAROCLINICALLY FORCED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS LOW ARE ALREADY APPARENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IF THIS OCCURS...AND MATTHEW SURVIVES AS A SEPARATE ENTITY...IT COULD TAKE A GENTLY CURVING PATH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW LOW. THIS IS THE SCENARIO INDICATED BY THE SIMPLER STEERING MODELS SUCH AS THE BAM FAMILY OF MODELS. THE GFDL SHOWS A MUCH SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW ONLY THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW...WHICH SPENDS MOST OF THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS OVER LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE BAM GUIDANCE...IN PART BECAUSE THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS...BUT I AM NOT REAL COMFORTABLE BEING SO FAR AWAY FROM THE NORMALLY GOOD-PERFORMING GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THERE IS MODERATE SHEAR OVER MATTHEW NOW...AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL INCREASE...AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IF THE TRACK FORECAST IS WRONG AND MATTHEW ENDS UP MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH...IT WOULD LIKELY FIND ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. A MORE LEISURELY TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF WOULD AFFORD MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN
October 8, 200421 yr Author Tropical Storm Matthew has formed and will continue to bring heavy flooding rain to the northern Gulf of Mexico into Monday. Also between the low and strong high pressure over the East, winds will gust 35 to 50 mph at times in the north-central and northeast Gulf. The persistent onshore winds are producing coastal flooding along portions of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi.
October 9, 200421 yr Author 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090235 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 ...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES MAINLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STRONG WINDS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO MATTHEW...BUT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MATTHEW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW. A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDS FROM MATTHEW NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.7 N... 93.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$
October 9, 200421 yr Author AN AIR FORCE PLANE CONTINUED TO CHECK MATTHEW AND FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ASYMMETRIC AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING BUT BECAUSE MATTHEW DOES NOT HAVE COMPLETE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS DETRIMENTAL. AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 060 DEGREES OR EAST-NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE BETWEEN THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON TURNING THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT THEY MAY BE REFLECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW OVER TEXAS. I AM NOT VERY CONFORTABLE TO BE AWAY FROM GLOBAL MODELS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BUT I WOULD RATHER FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY. FORECASTER AVILA
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