I highly doubt it with everything going on with both sides.

I'm calling it now that there will be the same kind of controversy over Florida that there was in 2000...This time instead of hanging chads, malfunctioning voting machines.

 

So to answer the question...No, I have a feeling we wont know for awhile who the clear winner is.

I'm sorry but Floridians give themselves way too much importance, Florida can be undecided till January but Ohio and Pennsylvania are Kerry leaners as of now(Florida is a Bush leaner) and that's the way I think it'll stay.

 

So no, at around 2, I think it will be called Kerry when Ohio and PA can be called by the networks as Kerry country.

So no, at around 2, I think it will be called Kerry when Ohio and PA can be called by the networks as Kerry country.

 

Without those 2 states, Bush would have 276 with Florida, so the race won't be decided until Florida is. If those 2 go Bush, the whole thing is over.

Without those 2 states, Bush would have 276 with Florida, so the race won't be decided until Florida is. If those 2 go Bush, the whole thing is over.

599441[/snapback]

 

I assume your then saying Bush is going to win Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. I'd be willing to bet you control of each other's signatures for two weeks that Bush doesn't take more than 1 of those.

Without those 2 states, Bush would have 276 with Florida, so the race won't be decided until Florida is.? If those 2 go Bush, the whole thing is over.

599441[/snapback]

 

I assume your then saying Bush is going to win Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. I'd be willing to bet you control of each other's signatures for two weeks that Bush doesn't take more than 1 of those.

599443[/snapback]

Well, I'm saying with the states he leads in right now, Bush will get 276. Any predictions like "Bush will only win one of those" is baseless. It's impossible to tell how a lot of swing states will go.

Unless you're a Jedi.

Well, I'm saying with the states he leads in right now, Bush will get 276. Any predictions like "Bush will only win one of those" is baseless. It's impossible to tell how a lot of swing states will go.

Unless you're a Jedi.

599448[/snapback]

I think it's tough to say Bush is leading in those states when two of them are Republican Commisioned polls.

Whoever takes two of the big three wins. Im assuming, chewbacca, that you are basing this on electoral vote.com right? They put the latest poll as the indicator. For example, a dem poll could show Kerry winning Virgnia on that site. Thats unlikley. But it would show it until another corrects it.

 

 

If Kerry wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, then Bush would have to sweep a lot of small states. With those state mostly at 50/50, he would have to hope the coinflip goes his way a lot. That likely wont happen. But you should make the bet with rune anyway.

 

Bush has not garnered anythin higher than 47% in Minnesota in non GOP polls. Bad news for an incumbent. He isnt going to win that state.

One big thing hurting Kerry, like Gore was hurt, is Edwards not being able to carry his home state of North Carolina.

 

Gore could have won in 2000 had he won his home state of Tennessee and Clinton's home state of Arkansas.

Not to mention all the three polls in the midwest are extremly close with a large chunk of undecidedes.

 

Anytime it's close with a chunk of undecidedes, they'll historically go for the challenger on a 2 - 1 ratio.

I think you can throw historical trends out the window this year. The post 9-11 situation is unprecedented in modern history.

 

Has the electorate ever switched horses in midstream when there were significant numbers of US troops engaged somewhere in the world?

599567[/snapback]

Throw historical trends out the window and then use one as an example?

Looks like Kerry's going to declare victory no matter what happens. :o

I doubt it.