July 4, 200323 yr Who's staying, who's going? With four weeks left before this year's trading deadline, I thought I might stick my neck out and play GM for a day. So here goes: The Marlins will keep Luis Castillo and trade Derrick Lee. Penny will be traded after refusing an assignment to the bullpen. Andy Fox will be traded for prospect or relief help and Kevin Hooper takes his place, batting a respectable .285 in the second half. Hooper's numbers this year in Albuquerque have been blunted by not having protection around him in the lineup and an early season swoon after being summarily dismissed by the Marlins during spring training after batting over .300. Torborg, who was more interested in protecting Alex Gonzalez' fragile ego than have a real competition for the shortstop position. Hooper is widely regarding by ML scouts, the Marlins have made him untouchable in trade talks. Luis Castillo - Luis has lost a couple of steps since his hip surgery, making him no longer the base-stealing leadoff threat he once was. Fortunately for Luis and the team, his off-season surgery hasn't hurt his bat, this perrenial .300+ hitter is ideally suited for the number 2 spot in the lineup. His stolen bases are down dramatically this year, with 14 overall and only one in the last three weeks. Castillo makes $4.85 million this year and is a free agent at the end of the year. Luis' value has plateaued, look for the Marlins to sign him to a two year, $11 million contract. His whole family lives here with him in South Florida, he has roots and we have a couple of things working in our favor, the flavor of South Florida and the absence of a state income tax. Luis is the prototypical number 2 batter, some speed, good bat, smart baseball guy who knows how to move Juan Pierre along. Derrick Lee - Probably the finest defensive firstbaseman in baseball, Lee is a perrenial disappointment at the plate, especially with men in scoring position. For every game Lee has won for the Marlins with his glove, he's lost one with his bat. It's not a matter whether Lee can hit that big homerun or not, it's whether Lee is an able enough ballplayer to move runners along when the situation calls for it. Making $4.25 million this year and with his last year of arbitration next year, look for the Marlins to unload him this month for pitching and pitching prospects. With the Marlins wanting to sign Lowell to a multi-year contract in the off-season, Lee and his estimated arbitration-driven $7 million salary in 2004 is the obvious man out. The Marlins will play Brian Banks (and Cabs at first if they can find a suitable replacement in leftfield - Gonzalez from Texas??? OMG!) until either Stokes or Adrian Gonzales are ready. Banks a contact hitter with respectable stats and a better glove than most realize, will play a quality first base and bat .290 replacing Lee. Brad Penny - Called "The Duke", a nickname he earned his first year with the Marlins. His strutting around (Brad is always happy to talk the talk, but for the last year just hasn't been able, or is unwilling to, walk the walk), his absolute refusal to condition himself, keep his weight down and his mouth shut, have made him one of least liked Marlins in and out of the clubhouse. Mckeon would trade him for a pair of clown shoes if he could, the manager's comments about perhaps sending Pavano or Penny to the bullpen were directed more to Penny. Brad of course couldn't keep his mouth shut and was quoted as saying he couldn't/wouldn't do it. But that's always Brad's problem, his mouth. After last year's trades of Dempster and Floyd (two trades that have worked out well for the Fish) Penny had alot to say about the current ownership, things that are no doubt still remembered in the FO. Penny has an excellent fastball that is most effective when mixed in with his above-average curveball, a pitch he seems loathe to use. Penny's stubborness on the mound is giving McKeon and Rosenthal fits, if they can find a suitable replacement. Color this guy gone Penny makes $1.875 million this year and is arbitration eligible, (probably in the $3 million range in 2004 if he posts a winning season). If an equivalent pitcher can be found, look for Penny to be traded as much for salary relief as for team chemistry. After the usual lip service his teammates won't miss him one bit. Andy Fox - Another player who's time with the Marlins is about to come to an end makes $800k this year and is a free agent at the end of the season. Fox, an average defensive replacement at best played as well as could be expected last year replacing AGon at SS. His .250 batting average showed his potential is very limited. With so many utility-type players waiting in the wings at Albuquerque and Zebulon, the Marlins will move him for salary relief. If the Yankees or another contender are interested, he's gone in July. Mike Redmond - A perpetual fan favorite, Mike is another free agent whose time has come with the Marlins. There is no way the Marlins keep three catchers next season and even if Pudge leaves after the season, there's enough depth in the minors for a backup to Castro in 2004. Redmond makes $1,050,000 this year and probably would sign for about the same next year but he is a luxury the Marlins can ill afford if they are being honest about signing Lowell. Look for Redmond to be traded for pitching prospects. Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez - Only time will tell whether Pudge will re-sign with the Fish in 2004. Interestingly, after all the talk about not overplaying Pudge he's appeared in more games than any catcher in MLB save three. {Pudge appears healthy and is currently contributing as much as any catcher in the game. Is Pudge trade bait? It depends on a couple of factors - 1) can the Marlins take advantage of the Rangers salary dump and bring one of Pudge's buddies here for the rest of the season? 2) Will Pudge do a second deferred compensation deal with the Fish for 2004? Trading Pudge this year woiuld be a PR nightmare for the FO so any deal involving him would have to be a blockbuster one, heavily in the Marlins favor. Look for him to finish the season here unless all hell breaks loose and the team is 10 games out of the wildcard by the trading deadline. Who else goes - The entire bullpen, not including Phelps and Looper are available. Levrault's numbers are skewed by his abyssmal performance in Boston, otherwise he's been adequate. Almanza probably has the greatest trade value but rest assured if we're still in contention for a wildcard berth expect alot of new faces there come August 1st. AJ Burnett may not be re-signed, opting to put the $3.5 million he'd earn in 2004 from arbitration to work more immediately into a healthy arm. Unless AJ is willing to either defer a significant portion of his 2004 salary or take a performance-laden contract, we've seen all we're going to see of AJ. Todd Hollandsworth. As much as his bat has made him a personna non grata in South Florida, his tentative defensive play makes him a liability the Marlins can afford to do without. If a roster squeeze occurs, look for the FO to cut him if they can't trade him. Tomorrow - "How the Math Works for the 2004 Marlins"
July 4, 200323 yr Firstly, what an awesome post. I have been trying to get something like this together, but thank you for doing it first because mine wouldn't have come close to this. *Interesting comments on Hooper...Many fans (including myself) don't factor in the psychological effects on a player. Hooper did have a great spring, but was sent back to AAA and has performed under expectations. He could be another Counsel/Eckstein type player like all the scouts say and would fill in nicely at 2B or at worst be a super-sub. *I'm reserved on Castillo at this point because the hip has obviously slowed him on the bases and in the field. Game 3 of the ATL series 2 groundballs hit up the middle jsut escaped his glove where before I thought he had the range for those hits. Just an opinion though. His increased power numbers have made up for the lack in SB's and if he can develop that further he is more then worth keeping. If not I say package him with Penny to the Reds. *Lee has so much potential that it kills me to see him playing with so little emotion and spark for the game. He will be a good hitter and gold glove 1B for the rest of his career. And hes becoming a mini-ironman by keeping off the disabled list for the last 5yrs? Only trade him if its for another big bat or if we are out of the race. *The catching situation is crowded now, but we should get what we can for Redmond because we have 3 very good prospects in the farm and star-to-be Castro riding the pine. Good post...can't wait for tomorrows! :thumbup
July 4, 200323 yr Author nice piece but arent we still in the 2003 season? Ramp, the 2003 Marlins, and their chances of securing a wildcard berth are directly related to what their payroll will look like in 2004. I didn't mean to ignore 2003 in my titling tomorrow's missive, perhaps I should have titled it "How to Win in 2003 and still have a competitive team in 2004". Does that work a little better for you buddy? :cool
July 4, 200323 yr Well done. Excellent analysis! wow thats 1 da best posts i have read since i been here man..... damn that was very f***ing insightfull and he got down to the Point...... man i got to agree with everything u said there Marlins... now the ? who do you get 4 penny or lee???? any thoughts... and plz dnt say Kelesko "just another Lee" or Viagra Man "not seeing him in the Future of the Marlins orgnization"....
July 4, 200323 yr thast why i told people not say him..... i have seen ya posts ramp you made a clear point how is sallary just jumps up and if you look at the stats 4 this year he isnt doing that good...... just about as = to D.lee... now maybe you can make an Arugement cuz he batted 300 last year that cuz neven isnt there he has no protection and stuff like that..... but im not buyin it..... we have only so little money to spend..... yo man....... we really need a Ball park thats the only way i feel as if we could make money and Stuff up the pay roll,.....
July 4, 200323 yr I know Klesko isn't the perfect fit - but he looked damn good last night hitting a home run against LA. Also, he brings a lefty bat, he knows what it's like to win & be in a pennant race and I know he would love to kick some Brave a**!
July 4, 200323 yr Klesko is far more valuable then Lee because of the lefty power bat. If you look at the numbers we are absolutely POUNDING lefties overall. Righties are owning us in comparison. FO has to be willing to take on salary though. The Pads have a killer farm system as well. They are ideal trade partners with the Reds taking 2nd. I'd also take Seattle over the Reds.
July 4, 200323 yr Author Is this the last year on Klesko's contract? I can't remember. Would I prefer JuanGon or Klesko? Wow, I'd love to see Beinfest with those options available to the Marlins. My guess is all things being equal he'd take Klesko and that left-handed killer bat although his average has tailed off this year and san Diego probably isn't as willing to subsidize his salary the way Texas might be willing to do with Juan. Either way it could be a fun summer Klesko makes $5.5 mil this year. It's a tough one. Klesko only wants to play first. He told San Diego that if they want to move him off first, he wanted to be traded. That would allow us to keep Cabs in left.
July 4, 200323 yr Ryan Klesko 1B/OF SDG Signed May 2000 - 3 years/$18.75M 2002: $6.0M 2003: $6.25M 2004: $6.5M 2005-6: Two-year extension for around $16.5M signed May 2002
July 4, 200323 yr Klesko's contract isn't that bad. Granted we are talking about the Marlins - but if they could move Lee for DeRosa & Marquis and then trade Castillo for Klesko - we would save some money, improve our lineup, have an adequate option at second base and add some pitching depth. If they lock up Lowell we could be set at the corners for the next three years. Just a thought and probably some wishful thinking. :whistle
July 4, 200323 yr If we sign Lowell. long term for his current market value we cannot afford any other large contracts. We are the Brewers...but maybe the youngins will step up.
July 5, 200323 yr No, I'm looking for the dollar amount the FO is looking to stay around. Is it 40 million? 50 million? Any idea?
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