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Baseball Prospectus on Marlins transactions

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Signed RHP Ryan Cameron to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [12/7]

 

Signed LHP Al Leiter to a one-year contract. [12/8]

 

Signed RHP Todd Jones, to a one-year, $1.1 million contract; almost signed RHPAntonio Alfonseca, to a two-year, $4.75 million contract. [12/10]

 

Signed C-R Mike DiFelice, LHP Chad Bentz, and INF-B Wilson Delgado to minor league contracts with spring NRIs; signed RHPAntonio Alfonseca to a one-year, $300,000 contract with an option for 2006. [12/17]

 

Outrighted RHP Mike Neu to Albuquerque. [12/20]

 

Signed RHP John Riedling to a one-year, $750,000 contract; re-signed RHP Ismael Valdez to a one-year contract. [1/5]

 

Re-signed LHP Matt Perisho to a one-year, $475,000 contract. [1/10]

 

Re-signed C-R Paul Lo Duca to a three-year, $18 million contract. [1/12]

 

Re-signed RHP Tim Spooneybarger to a one-year, $350,000 contract; resigned RHP Guillermo Mota to a one-year, $2.6 million contract; re-signed RHP A.J. Burnett to a one-year, $3.65 million contract. [1/17]

 

Signed RHP Josh Beckett to a one-year, $2.4 million contract. [1/18]

 

Signed 1B-L Carlos Delgado to a four-year, $52 million contract with an option for 2009. [1/25]

 

Designated RHP Kevin Cave for assignment; signed RHP Jim Mecir to a one-year contract. [2/2]

 

For all of the noise, at the end of the day we've got two real moves to talk about: signing Leiter and signing Delgado. The bullpen moves haven't really yielded a better unit, Ismael Valdez seems likely to remain a cipher, and while Wilson Delgado can be a useful utility infielder, he won't be a great one.

 

So Leiter first?in a sense, he's sort of the poor man's lefty version of Pedro Martinez, which is admittedly a pretty tortured comparison, but hear me out. Like Martinez, he used to be better than he is now, and he's managed to take all of his turns in the rotation only once in the last four years. In a rotation that's built around the young trio of Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett and Dontrelle Willis, if you want to contend, it makes sense to add a marquee veteran, especially with Carl Pavano having priced himself out of Marlindom. Considering that Leiter, Burnett and Beckett all come into the season with durability issues, the question is whether the Marlins can cover 162 games without having to hand something like 20 starts to sixth or seventh options. Probable fifth starter Valdez isn't a workhorse either, and when the sixth or seventh options are guys like Frank Castillo, Travis Smith or Scuffy Moehler, it's easy to see how the Marlins pitching might undermine their shot at contention.

 

As for Delgado, it's a pretty good move, and as has been discussed, a creative one. At first glance, a lineup core of Delgado, Mike Lowell, Paul Lo Duca and Miguel Cabrera looks pretty good. It gets a little less sunny when you consider that Lo Duca is 33 and Lowell 31, and that with the financial packages that Delgado, Lowell, LoDuca and even someone like Luis Castillo have, the Fish aren't exactly flexible if anybody doesn't have a really good season. It isn't like Juan Encarnacion or Jeff Conine can ride to the rescue.

 

The Fish have the talent to contend, but their bid on contention is as fragile as that talent is. Things could work out, but it's dependent on awful lot of ifs.

The Fish have the talent to contend, but their bid on contention is as fragile as that talent is. Things could work out, but it's dependent on awful lot of ifs.

685262[/snapback]

Those two sentences basically describe our entire season this year

Geez... these guys make it sound like we're the only team with health questions or depth issues. When you're 1-2 will both bat .300 or better, steal 60-80 bases combined, and score over 100 runs and you're 3-4-5 can all hit 30hr+ and 100rbi+... having a Paul Lo Duca or Conine batting 6-7 ain't bad at all. Bottom line... how far we go depends on the health of AJ and Josh. Our 6-7 starters options are not too great... but then again whose is? Having Leiter or Willis as our 4th starter is a whole helluva lot better than most team's 3rd option... so imagine how those teams' 6th or 7th options are.

..the question is whether the Marlins can cover 162 games without having to hand something like 20 starts to sixth or seventh options. Probable fifth starter Valdez isn't a workhorse either, and when the sixth or seventh options are guys like Frank Castillo, Travis Smith or Scuffy Moehler, it's easy to see how the Marlins pitching might undermine their shot at contention.

 

685262[/snapback]

Been saying that all off season

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