June 30, 200521 yr Florida Marlins: A few young Marlins have been in the news recently: Catcher/first baseman Josh Willingham, BP's 48th-best prospect heading into 2005, was recalled on June 23rd. That ranking wasn't without some mild controversy, though, as his prospect status was called into question by a few BP authors. The short history of Willingham goes like this: can hit, can't catch. The long history is, as always, a bit more complicated. He compiled a minor league batting line of .272/.412/.493 in just over 1500 ABs, but that was tempered by his relative old age in each of his leagues; he turned 26 in February and had only logged 25 ABs above Double-A (they were in the majors). We can tell from his walk total that he's got a good batting eye, and his improvement in ISO from the low minors (.191 in 1101 ABs) to the high minors (.309 in 604 ABs) tells us that he's not just a spectator at the plate. His power is real--perhaps not .366 ISO real, which is his total in 2005 so far, but the kid can mash. Even without the Triple-A line, PECOTA was on board prior to the season, envisioning a .264/.399/.486 season from him in 214 major league ABs. Sooner or later teams will look at Craig Wilson/Matt LeCroy-types as assets rather than defensive failures at three positions. Guys like that won't win Gold Gloves, but they'll be more valuable at the plate than the Lenny Harrises of the world, and offer "limited versatility" in the field?whether it be behind the plate, playing first, or clomping around a corner outfield spot (Willingham logged 21 innings in LF last season with the Marlins). We're truthfully still in the "yeah, but" stage when assessing Willingham's major league chances. Blocked at a few positions? Yeah, but he can be a valuable utility-type player even if he doesn't start. He's been old for his leagues, and hadn't seen much time above Double-A coming into 2005? Yeah, but he's hit .337/.469/.714 in AAA this year. He deserves a big-league roster spot? Yeah, but the Marlins have this bizarre infatuation with Jeff Conine. Willingham's not going to beat out Paul Lo Duca at catcher, and he's not going to displace Carlos Delgado (or his contract) at first base. If the Marlins were serious about showcasing him, they probably would have done so during interleague play; as it is, he got a late call-up, logged only 4 PAs so far, and the team doesn't need a DH again this season. He's already a better option than Conine, and the decision to side with sentimentality over performance could have real consequences in a winnable NL East. It's been a while since major league baseball has heard a peep from Tim Spooneybarger. He had Tommy John surgery in 2003, and celebrated the Marlins' World Series victory that fall by jumping around on the field with his arm in a splint. He now claims to not know where his World Series ring is. He's currently on a rehab assignment with the Class-A Jupiter Hammerheads, and he's not happy about it: "I'm so tired of telling people the same thing, week after week, 'I'm still throwing bullpen [sessions]. I'm getting back. I'll be back soon.' I've been saying that forever," he said. (Miami Herald) To be fair, it's now taken him 21 months to recover from TJ surgery, and he hasn't thown a big-league pitch since June 11, 2003, when he threw 1.1 innings against the Brewers. His frustration is directed more at the situation itself than at Florida management for not letting him hang around the Miami bullpen. We can expect his control to return last, as it does with most Tommy John survivors. He's already had one setback (during which he was reportedly throwing 79 mph fastballs), and had complained of elbow pain. Spooneybarger had a good rookie season with Atlanta in 2002, if a bit wild, throwing 51.3 innings with a 26/33 BB/K ratio, or 4.6 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9. He logged 42 pretty good innings with the Marlins in 2003 (5.2 VORP) before getting hurt, improving his BB/K ratio to 11/32, or a more respectable 2.36 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9. Florida looked pretty smart for targeting him in that complicated three-team Mike Hampton/Charles Johnson trade. The Florida bullpen is currently running on fumes. Todd Jones leads the team in WXRL with 1.498, placing him 23rd in the league, and you have to go down to Brian Moehler's four relief appearances (.285 WXRL) at 108th in the league to find the next Florida reliever. Spooneybarger would offer some stability if he could come close to his pre-surgery form. Without him as an option, though, just look at what the Marlins are doing to poor Travis Smith: 4/22--Recalled Smith from Albuquerque 4/30--Optioned Smith to Albuquerque 5/01--Recalled Smith from Albuquerque 5/18--Optioned Smith to Albuquerque 5/29--Recalled Smith from Albuquerque 6/22--Optioned Smith to Albuquerque --John Erhardt http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4180
June 30, 200521 yr "He's already a better option than Conine, and the decision to side with sentimentality over performance could have real consequences in a winnable NL East." WOW
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