BP has an article today on some of the bigger name players on the trade block. Here is what they have to say about two Marlins rumored to be available:

 

A.J. Burnett, Marlins

 

PECOTA has nailed A.J. Burnett's performance almost exactly:

 

 

 

A.J. Burnett IP H BB K HR ERA

PECOTA 134.3 117 50 122 13 3.76

Actual 132.0 118 48 124 9 3.48

 

 

The strikeout and walk numbers are dead matches. Burnett has allowed somewhat fewer home runs than we had anticipated, but he's also inducing a much higher percentage of groundballs this year, meaning that performance is reasonably likely to be sustainable, even outside of Dolphins Stadium. There's no doubt that Burnett is a good little pitcher (actually, a good big pitcher--he checks in at 230 pounds). But is he also the sort of player that teams are likely to overpay for?

 

That depends on a couple of things, the most important of which is Burnett's health. The PECOTA projection you see isn't prorated, but properly mellow on playing time given the time that he had missed to Tommy John surgery in 2003 and 2004. Since we're likely talking about a two-month rental, the risk of a serious injury (or re-injury) might not be material enough for Burnett's suitors to worry about.

 

The risk of fatigue-related underperformance, however, is another question. Burnett is on pace for 216 innings this season, but had betted 120 innings just twice in his career before this year, and had never pitched more than 204. He's decidedly non-economical with his pitches. July has been his roughest month, and he ranks ninth in baseball in Pitcher Abuse Points. Compounding the problem, the teams making a play for Burnett are not only hoping for help through the stretch drive, but also in October. I'm not sure if you want A.J. Burnett, 3500-plus pitches into his season, starting a game for you in the LCS.

 

The other question is the Carl Pavano problem. Florida is a gentle environment for a pitcher; take the PECOTA projection listed above and put Burnett in U.S. Cellular Field, and his ERA rises to 4.35 (before accounting for the White Sox' vastly improved defense). I don't know that Burnett is an awful trade target--his strikeout ability will be valuable in any environment, and all cliches aside, good pitching is hard to come by. But I will say this: if I were running the Marlins, I'd think this was a pretty good time to deal him.

 

 

 

Mike Lowell, Marlins

 

It took Lowell until he was 26 to really get established in the big leagues, and a good rule of thumb in forecasting is "Debut Late, Decline Early." For whatever reason--perhaps an underlying lack of athleticism--guys who take their time to reach the big leagues tend not to age gracefully. Lowell has always been an extreme flyball hitter, so any fundamental decline in his strength or bat speed is likely to be particularly devastating, leading to lots of warning track shots. PECOTA anticipated a non-trival risk of decline (23.8 percent collapse rate), citing some unfavorable comparisons like Chris Sabo and Doug Rader. A more neutral assessment would be that this is a good time to acquire Lowell on the cheap, but my PECOTA-encrusted hunch is that the end is nigh.

 

 

 

Also something on a rumored Marlins target, Danys Baez:

 

Danys Baez, Devil Rays

 

Some of the worst deadline deals usually revolve around overpaying for closers, and Baez looks like he'll be no exception.

 

 

 

Danys Baez H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 ERA

PECOTA 8.8 3.9 6.9 1.1 4.40

Actual 8.4 5.0 8.6 1.2 3.18

 

 

Baez' peripheral numbers have not really been any better than PECOTA had anticipated this year; in fact, depending on how you want to evaluate that walk rate spike, they've arguably been somewhat worse. But his ERA is more than a full point better than our preseason projection. The reason? Baez has allowed just a .210/.288/.274 batting line with runners in scoring position, versus a .238/.315/.425 line with the bases empty. A starry-eyed GM might refer to that as clutch pitching ability, and tell some story about how Baez' makeup has improved. We refer to it as good luck. Caveat emptor on a closer with a walk rate this high.

we won't get Baez, Devil Rays are too crazy with their demands, I don't see us destroying our farm unless we are in the hunt (which we are, but I am talking about a lead here), and a Urbina type deal is needed for the playoffs.