B4P likes playing Chicken Little

 

...but this one is concerning.

 

i'm concerned still, because it's heading in my general direction as well

Once again, it's just gonna be a little wind and a little rain.

 

I'm not losing any sleep over this thing.

Here comes trouble, South Florida :mischief

TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

 

THE LAST RECON FIX AT 2130Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB...

AND THE ONBOARD RADAR REVEALED A DEVELOPING SMALL RAGGED EYE

FEATURE. A SERIES OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY SSMI AND SSMIS

DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS ALSO INDICATES AT LEAST A MID-LEVEL

EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING THIS EVENING

OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH

CONSISTENCY TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. A

DISJOINTED AND BROAD BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINS WELL REMOVED

FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS NO DATA

TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THAT FAR FROM

THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z HAVE COME UP A BIT

TO 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THESE

ESTIMATES AND THE STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...

THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THIS REMAINS AT THE

LOWER END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY

DISCUSSED LAG BETWEEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SURFACE WINDS

INDICATED BY THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO WILMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO HELP GET A

BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.

 

WILMA STOPPED LOSING LATITUDE EARLIER THIS EVENING WHEN IT PULLED UP

NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT

HAS BEGUN A WESTWARD DRIFT... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION

IS 270/2. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO

THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY

PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT WILMA WILL RECURVE AFTER

ABOUT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE

CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOWEVER... THE

MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW SHARPLY WILMA WILL TURN AND HOW FAST

IT WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW MUCH

FASTER AFTER RECURVATURE... BUT THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY

BE ADJUSTED PART OF THE WAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE

LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR

STEADY STRENGTHENING WHILE WILMA REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THEREAFTER... INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD

HALT INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING... BUT

NOT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN WILMA BENEATH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE

FIVE-DAY TIME FRAME.

 

 

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.8N 80.2W 55 KT

12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W 65 KT

24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W 75 KT

36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 85 KT

48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W 95 KT

72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W 100 KT

96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 95 KT

120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W 85 KT

 

 

It may not be a major when it hits So. Fla, but it looks like it is coming this way. Not sure yet if I'm going to put up the hurricane panels.

B4P likes playing Chicken Little

 

...but this one is concerning.

 

 

Looks like it's coming your way Cape. Let's hope the shear in the southern Gulf knocks it down.

Here's a nice map.

that's a very nice map PB. Does the map update itself?

Latest pressure 984mb. The storm is starting to deepen. Surface winds are still around 55 kts, but they should respond to the pressure drop soon. We should have a cane sometime tomorrow morning.

 

 

 

Plenty of warm water ahead.

 

 

 

Plus little to no shear.

 

 

 

Plenty of ingredients for Wilma to spin up over the next few days. :confused