Books banking on Marlins to be brutal

 

By Stephen Nover

Thu, Feb 23, 2006

 

The Florida Marlins over/under regular season win total is 64 ?, lowest in the National League.

 

That?s understandable since their front office gutted the team, but is Florida?s meager over/under total correct?

 

No. It?s too high.

 

Could the Marlins be one of the worst teams in modern baseball history?

 

Professional handicapper Andy Iskoe certainly thinks so.

 

?They may not win 50 games,? he says. ?They are going to be a horrible team this year.?

 

We know three things for sure about the Marlins: Miguel Cabrera will be the starting third baseman, Dontrelle Willis will be the No. 1 starter, and home attendance will be terrible.

 

Heck, the Marlins might not even go through the expense of printing programs like 2002, when they drew just 813,111.

 

That would be a serious mistake because even fanatical Rotisserie nuts would be hard-pressed to name a batting order that could be: 1. Eric Reed (centerfield); 2. Hanley Ramirez (shortstop); 3. Jeremy Hermida (rightfield); 4. Cabrera (third base); 5. Mike Jacobs (first base); 6. Josh Willingham (leftfield or catcher); 7. Miguel Olivo (catcher) or Chris Aguila (leftfield); 8. Pokey Reese.

 

The pitching staff is just as young, with 27 of the 33 hurlers in camp having less than three years of big-league experience.

 

We could be looking at a starting rotation of Willis, Brian Moehler, Jason Vargas, Sergio Mitre and Josh Johnson. It looks like journeyman Joe Borowski will be the closer of a depleted bullpen.

 

?All they have is Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera and a bunch of Double-A players,? Iskoe said. ?Look at who they traded.?

 

The list of those departed include Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Paul LoDuca, Juan Pierre, A.J. Burnett, Mike Lowell, Juan Encarnacion, Alex Gonzalez, Todd Jones and perhaps the cruelest blow, rising star pitcher Josh Beckett.

 

?And they got nothing for them,? Iskoe said.

 

Where?s Bowie Kuhn when you need him?

 

For the good of the game, Commissioner Bud Selig should have stepped in and prevented the Marlins from conducting their giveaway program like Kuhn did to Charlie Finley and the Oakland A?s.

 

These Marlins almost make the 1998 version that lost 108 games look like the ?27 Yankees. Hey, but the Marlins saved $45 million. Never mind the ability to compete or show any loyalty to their dwindling fan base.

 

Cabrera figures to see less good pitches to hit and won?t have his two main table setters, Pierre and Castillo. They got on base 35 percent of the time ahead of Cabrera and combined for 67 stolen bases. Willis, meanwhile, is going to be hard-pressed to come anywhere close to last year?s major league-best 22 wins.

 

?The defense has to suffer because it?s so inexperienced,? Iskoe said. ?So instead of winning 20 games, Willis wins 16 because the defense behind him doesn?t make the plays.?

 

Florida?s bullpen also figures to blow a few leads ? if the Marlins ever happen to be leading in the seventh and eight innings. Willis received 4.87 run support per game last season. The Marlins don?t figure to give Willis that kind of offense this season.

 

The bookmakers at CRIS may not be exaggerating listing the Marlins at 400-1 to win the World Series.

 

One thing the Marlins do have going is young talent, including four of the top 46 prospects on Baseball America?s 2005 top 100 list. Ramirez ranked No. 10, Hermida rated No. 18, while pitchers Scott Olsen was 38th and Yusmeiro Petit ranked 46th. Some consider Hermida the favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors.

 

?They have some good young players,? Iskoe says. ?But they are two-to-three years from development. And when they?re eligible for their next contract, they?ll be shipped.?

 

The Marlins are stuck in the tough NL East, too, where they?ll meet the Braves and Mets a combined 38 times. They also face the Phillies and Nationals 37 times, and draw 15 non-league games against the American League East.

 

?The Mets have strengthened themselves considerably,? Iskoe says. ?Atlanta is Atlanta. The Phillies have gotten better and the Nationals appear improved.?

 

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.as...rt=71065&tid=47

That handicapper is a weiner. We'll win at least 60 games, and maybe more if we solve our CF problem with Joey Gathright or Alex Sanchez. Our bullpen will be horrible, yes, but our SP should be average to slightly below average. We may have gotten nothing in return that will considerably help us THIS year, but in a couple years watch out. Ok, i'm done...

That handicapper is a weiner. We'll win at least 60 games, and maybe more if we solve our CF problem with Joey Gathright or Alex Sanchez. Our bullpen will be horrible, yes, but our SP should be average to slightly below average. We may have gotten nothing in return that will considerably help us THIS year, but in a couple years watch out. Ok, i'm done...

 

lol

That handicapper is a weiner. We'll win at least 60 games, and maybe more if we solve our CF problem with Joey Gathright or Alex Sanchez. Our bullpen will be horrible, yes, but our SP should be average to slightly below average. We may have gotten nothing in return that will considerably help us THIS year, but in a couple years watch out. Ok, i'm done...

 

lol

 

Ok, not completely solve, but at least patch it up for a year. Sanchez would be super cheap, and at this point, nothing to lose. Who cares really, we aren't gonna sign him anyway...

The sports handicapping community is correct. The initial number of 67 wins was too high. I hated to do it, but I did take the under 67, with the thought that the line would move down. Now I feel better, as I don't like to bet against the Marlins. I'll buy the over when it gets to 63 1/2. This way I'll win both wagers if the Marlins win 64, 65, or 66. In any case, this is not a year to look at team wins. It's a year to look at individual player accomplishments and growth. What difference does it make if we win 55, 60, 65, 70 or 75 games. We're not making the playoffs. In many respects this year can be more fun to watch than last year....as long as Girardi can hold hold the team together and get his prospects through the long hot summer with their mental state still intact.