Let's Make a Deal

The market has been set guys.

Mark Teixiera, arbitration year 4/5 buyouts. 2 years $15.4 million ($6.4, $9). This is the closest parallel to Cabrera. Cabrera will make give or take a million from this if the Marlins offer him a 2 year deal and not go to arbitration. Looking longterm, the only other realistic longterm contract is Pujols, signed in first year of arbitration. 7/$100 or 8/$110 with the option, broken down into $7, $11, $14, $15, $16, $16, $16, $5 mil buyout or $16 mil.

So it's safe to say Cabrera will make between $6.4 and $7 in 2007. In 2008, he will make between $9 and $11. I'm under the impression Cabrera is better then Teixiera, not as good as Pujols (and I really don't want to argue that with anyone). A 2 year deal will only cost the franchise 2/$16-17.

However screw that. Lock him up. We are looking at Cabrera at around 7/$95 or 8/$108 for a longterm deal, broken down into something like $6.75, $10, $13, $14.5, $15.75, $16, $16, with a year 8 option $3 mil buyout or $16 mil contract . I think that is incredibly fair market value, and his agent would ask for no less for that amount of years. He'd be a free agent at 30/31 years old and have the opportunity to sign a second mega contract maximizing his potential earnings. If Loria wants to spend, this is what it costs.

As for Willis, a lot of comparables around his time of career signing a contract.

Halladay 4/$42

Santana 4/$39.75

Escobar 3/$28.5

Beckett 4/$42 (with option, 3/$30 otherwise)

Sabathia 2/$17.75

Webb 4/$19.5

Haren 4/$12.65

We waited 2 years to long for the Haren discount, 1 year to long to get the Brandon Webb discount, Willis is above Escobar and Sabathia in pedigree, but a little behind Roy and Johan. Boston just paid Beckett to much (and BJays with AJ) which hurts the market a little, so no sense in arguing or trying to shave off a million bucks over 4 years. Just give it to Dontrelle straight.

Willis 4/$40. ($7, $9, $11, $13). Done.

I'll take it further, I think the Marlins need to offer a third player a long term deal - Hanley. The pitchers, let's all give them another year to prove it. We can give Brandon Webb deals to JJ, Olsen, whoever, after they show it a second year. We have so much depth, no sense in giving out those deals yet. Uggla, Hammer, and Jacobs need to prove it again for long term buy out deals, as all are older prospects and have longterm red flags despite their various levels of success. Hermida, injured or I'd throw him in the category. But Hanley. Superstar production as a 22 year old, always held as a top prospect. There is no reason not to buy him out right now. Let's look at comparables after 1 season.

Bobby Crosby 5/$12.75

Jhonny Peralta 5/$13 (6/$20 with option)

Michael Young 4/$10.5 after 3rd year < - should fire agent

Hanley obviously destroyed these 3 on first year production so he will start off higher. He would easily accept a 5/$14-15 deal. I know it's a pipe dream because Loria won't spend until the stadium is done and it's beinfest's idiotic policy to go year to year with arbitration, but this is my contractual dream for the offseason among current players.

Cabrera 7/$95 or 8/$108

Willis 4/$40

Hanley 5/$14

Lou, I love the painstaking time you put into getting the numbers, but really, for the Marlins, it makes little sense to go long term with any player unless we're buying out some of the free agent years. That would take a fiscally irresponsible leap with Willis (5 year deals for a pitcher are just bad ideas), and be of a length that Hanley would not, with informed advice, agree to.

To me, by allowing Willis to reach arbitration, it's probably in our best interests to go year to year with him until after next season at the earliest, and Hanley won't go long-term with us until he hits that first arby year, which would allow us to buy out a free-agent year or two.

Cabrera, on the other hand, needs that 8 year deal. Period, end of story.

Still, if you wouldn't mind sharing, I'd love the link to where you get your payroll figures.

I disagree of course. I think they should buy out the three of them and it fiscally makes sense. But to each his own.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com