September 21, 200620 yr If I were beinfest/loria I'd give the following: Cabrera 7 yr/75 million Willis 5 yr/45 million
September 21, 200620 yr I see this offseason as a critical time for the Marlins as far as keeping Willis and Cabrera beyond their arbitration years goes. If they don't sign them to multi-year deals this offseason, it will indicate to me the Marlins likely have no intention of holding onto them beyond their arbitration years. Isn't that quite a leap to take?
September 21, 200620 yr Author I see this offseason as a critical time for the Marlins as far as keeping Willis and Cabrera beyond their arbitration years goes. If they don't sign them to multi-year deals this offseason, it will indicate to me the Marlins likely have no intention of holding onto them beyond their arbitration years. Isn't that quite a leap to take? I don't think so, though it could be. Like I have written before, the longer we wait to sign Miguel to a long term deal the more expensive the proposition becomes. I think that if the Marlins wait until after next season, his asking price will be too high. The Marlins need to jump on this now. With Dontrelle, we may be able to afford to wait another season, but I would rather seal the deal this offseason. With Dontrelle more comfortable with the team (read: not pressing like he was earlier this season) and improvement defensively, offensively and in the bullpen (hopefully), I predict he is in for a monster season in 2007. So the Marlins should get this wrapped up now before they simply cannot afford to do it.
September 21, 200620 yr Loria has a good reason not to sign Willis to a long-term deal until he is no longer arby eligible, and that's health. You don't want to lock him up to 3-years $21 Million this off-season and have him need Tommy John or something. On Dontrelle, you wait as long as you can to sign long-term. With Miguel, you could have similar concerns, but the are not nearly as likely. It would make a lot of sense to sign Cabrera long-term now, and make his salary increase more so toward the end of the contract because A) We will be able to take on a lot more salary when a stadium is done, and it should be by the time the middle of his contract comes around and B) Even if the stadium never ever happens, you could trade him and let the other team take on the tail end of that contract. It would be win-win.
September 21, 200620 yr Author Loria has a good reason not to sign Willis to a long-term deal until he is no longer arby eligible, and that's health. You don't want to lock him up to 3-years $21 Million this off-season and have him need Tommy John or something. On Dontrelle, you wait as long as you can to sign long-term. With Miguel, you could have similar concerns, but the are not nearly as likely. It would make a lot of sense to sign Cabrera long-term now, and make his salary increase more so toward the end of the contract because A) We will be able to take on a lot more salary when a stadium is done, and it should be by the time the middle of his contract comes around and B) Even if the stadium never ever happens, you could trade him and let the other team take on the tail end of that contract. It would be win-win. Health concerns are not legitimate concerns in my mind when it comes to Dontrelle and Miguel. Both players have proven themselves to be extremely durable. If anything, this should argue MORE for the Marlins signing them to long term contracts. And it is not win-win if you have to trade Miguel because you cannot afford his contract, no matter what you get back for him.
September 21, 200620 yr Loria has a good reason not to sign Willis to a long-term deal until he is no longer arby eligible, and that's health. You don't want to lock him up to 3-years $21 Million this off-season and have him need Tommy John or something. On Dontrelle, you wait as long as you can to sign long-term. With Miguel, you could have similar concerns, but the are not nearly as likely. It would make a lot of sense to sign Cabrera long-term now, and make his salary increase more so toward the end of the contract because A) We will be able to take on a lot more salary when a stadium is done, and it should be by the time the middle of his contract comes around and B) Even if the stadium never ever happens, you could trade him and let the other team take on the tail end of that contract. It would be win-win. Health concerns are not legitimate concerns in my mind when it comes to Dontrelle and Miguel. Both players have proven themselves to be extremely durable. If anything, this should argue MORE for the Marlins signing them to long term contracts. And it is not win-win if you have to trade Miguel because you cannot afford his contract, no matter what you get back for him. For any pitcher, no matter how "durable" they are, health is always something you should be concerned about (unless their name is Livan Hernandez). You never know if/when Willis' funky motion will catch up to him. And I do think it's win-win even if you have to trade Miguel, because even though that would hurt this organization, you would literally be able to get any player(s) in this league you'd like.
September 21, 200620 yr Lock Cabrera up now. Won't happen though, I see a 3 year deal as the max for either side. I don't see Willis doing a long term deal this year, because of the relative slip in his performance. The long term deal he'd be offered this year wouldn't be a fair deal for him IMO. He understands that, his agent understands that and the lowballing ownership understands that. 1 year deal for $3.5 mil According to the CBA, the max pay cut a player can take is 20%. Willis is making $4.5 mil this year. With a 20% pay cut, that brings it to $3.48 mil. I extremely doubt he would take such a cut as you mention his $3.5 mil salary. I agree to go with another 1 year deal to Willis to see if we finally get that stadium deal done. Then we can probably offer a 4 year deal. I do agree to lock up Cabrera ASAP before his value keeps rising. But I don't think it will happen until the Marlins FO knows what's gonna happen with the stadium.
September 21, 200620 yr I see this offseason as a critical time for the Marlins as far as keeping Willis and Cabrera beyond their arbitration years goes. If they don't sign them to multi-year deals this offseason, it will indicate to me the Marlins likely have no intention of holding onto them beyond their arbitration years. Isn't that quite a leap to take? I don't think so, though it could be. Like I have written before, the longer we wait to sign Miguel to a long term deal the more expensive the proposition becomes. I think that if the Marlins wait until after next season, his asking price will be too high. The Marlins need to jump on this now. With Dontrelle, we may be able to afford to wait another season, but I would rather seal the deal this offseason. With Dontrelle more comfortable with the team (read: not pressing like he was earlier this season) and improvement defensively, offensively and in the bullpen (hopefully), I predict he is in for a monster season in 2007. So the Marlins should get this wrapped up now before they simply cannot afford to do it. I meant your position. Not the leap to re-signing, which is full of rewards and risks that must being weighed.
September 21, 200620 yr Lock Cabrera up now. Won't happen though, I see a 3 year deal as the max for either side. I don't see Willis doing a long term deal this year, because of the relative slip in his performance. The long term deal he'd be offered this year wouldn't be a fair deal for him IMO. He understands that, his agent understands that and the lowballing ownership understands that. 1 year deal for $3.5 mil According to the CBA, the max pay cut a player can take is 20%. Willis is making $4.5 mil this year. With a 20% pay cut, that brings it to $3.48 mil. I extremely doubt he would take such a cut as you mention his $3.5 mil salary. I agree to go with another 1 year deal to Willis to see if we finally get that stadium deal done. Then we can probably offer a 4 year deal. I do agree to lock up Cabrera ASAP before his value keeps rising. But I don't think it will happen until the Marlins FO knows what's gonna happen with the stadium. willis will make 6-7 in arby miggy will most likely get a settlement of the highest ever for 1st year arby player (think the old one was jeter at like 6 million)
September 21, 200620 yr Here's a thought: Consider what we'd be able to pay without a new stadium [while keeping a 25-man roster that Loria and Beinfest would like their names attached to] and what we'd be able to pay with a new stadium [while keeping blahblahblah]. If the cost to re-sign Cabrera and Willis long-term exceeds the amount in either of the scenarios, there's no incentive to re-sign them. I'm an optimist at heart so I like to think that the amount to re-sign them now, or whenever a stadium is built, will not exceed the amount we can afford with a new stadium.
September 21, 200620 yr Lock Cabrera up now. Won't happen though, I see a 3 year deal as the max for either side. I don't see Willis doing a long term deal this year, because of the relative slip in his performance. The long term deal he'd be offered this year wouldn't be a fair deal for him IMO. He understands that, his agent understands that and the lowballing ownership understands that. 1 year deal for $3.5 mil According to the CBA, the max pay cut a player can take is 20%. Willis is making $4.5 mil this year. With a 20% pay cut, that brings it to $3.48 mil. I extremely doubt he would take such a cut as you mention his $3.5 mil salary. I agree to go with another 1 year deal to Willis to see if we finally get that stadium deal done. Then we can probably offer a 4 year deal. I do agree to lock up Cabrera ASAP before his value keeps rising. But I don't think it will happen until the Marlins FO knows what's gonna happen with the stadium. The existing CBA expires before the end of the year and this issue (the max 20% cut) has been problematic for several older players in the twilight of their productive careers. No one (in the public) knows what will be in the new CBA although it has been leaked that there will be no free agent/draft pick compensation. All that said, I would suspect there is zero chance that Willis is offered, or would accept (or an arbitrator would find) a cut in pay. Look for a big jump.
September 21, 200620 yr willis will make 6-7 in arby No he won't. He'll make no more than $5.5 Million, IF he makes that. You guys really think Cabs is only worth 10 mil a year? The market is not what it used to be... Look at the money Beltran got from the Mets as an example. That's a decent amount more than we'd offer Miguel, because Miguel doesn't bring the speed, defense, or switch-hitting that Beltran does.
September 21, 200620 yr Here's a thought: Consider what we'd be able to pay without a new stadium [while keeping a 25-man roster that Loria and Beinfest would like their names attached to] and what we'd be able to pay with a new stadium [while keeping blahblahblah]. If the cost to re-sign Cabrera and Willis long-term exceeds the amount in either of the scenarios, there's no incentive to re-sign them. I'm an optimist at heart so I like to think that the amount to re-sign them now, or whenever a stadium is built, will not exceed the amount we can afford with a new stadium. RFerry.....I think that there's something worthwhile in your post, but I can't decipher your words, so I can't be sure. And my reading comprehension is pretty good. Seriously, your posts have always been obtuse, but they are getting to the point where they're worthless, as with the circular reasoning, you can't figure out where they begin and end and what you mean. Try to make yourself more clear. And I don't mean to "dumb it down". I think this one is your fault for not making your opinions clear. You're a smart guy. Just learn to write better.
September 21, 200620 yr Here's a thought: Consider what we'd be able to pay without a new stadium [while keeping a 25-man roster that Loria and Beinfest would like their names attached to] and what we'd be able to pay with a new stadium [while keeping blahblahblah]. If the cost to re-sign Cabrera and Willis long-term exceeds the amount in either of the scenarios, there's no incentive to re-sign them. I'm an optimist at heart so I like to think that the amount to re-sign them now, or whenever a stadium is built, will not exceed the amount we can afford with a new stadium. RFerry.....I think that there's something worthwhile in your post, but I can't decipher your words, so I can't be sure. And my reading comprehension is pretty good. Seriously, your posts have always been obtuse, but they are getting to the point where they're worthless, as with the circular reasoning, you can't figure out where they begin and end and what you mean. Try to make yourself more clear. And I don't mean to "dumb it down". I think this one is your fault for not making your opinions clear. You're a smart guy. Just learn to write better. Yeah I wasnt gonna say anything but. christ. your a smart guy RFerry but you gotta drop the doublespeak Your post makes ZERO sense
September 22, 200620 yr Funny, I thought the same thing when writing it and instead of re-writing it I toyed with the idea of summing it up into an alegbraic expression, but thought it'd play too close to the script. Basically what I meant to say is that the cost to re-sign Miggy and Willis is probably above what we can afford without a new stadium. But with a new stadium, their prices now and probably then as well will be afforable. Therefore there's reason to wait.
September 22, 200620 yr 8/100 million for miguel cabrera Cabrera has three more arbitration years coming up, in which he'd make $4, $6 and $12mm? Probably something similar to what Soriano made - I'm not sure what that would be. After that, he's probably a $15 player. If you add 3 more years at $15, you're at $67. 6 at $70 makes sense and you can tack on two more to get to 8/$100, so I agree with you there. He's been making pennies over the past three+ years and paying him $12.5 a year going forward would give him about $5 million a year more than he'd make over the next three years. I think you'll have to pay him more up front to get him to lock up beyond what would be his free agent time. Dontrelle has two more arbitration years left I believe and might be something like $6 and $9. If you want to lock him up for seven more years and assume he's worth $10 per year going forward (I don't like paying more than that for pitchers), you can backload to help sign Cabrera and hope to secure a stadium. $7-8-9-10-11-12-13 would make for a 7 year/$70 mil contract, which I think would make sense. That would mean $20 million and increasing by $1 million per year over the next six to keep the two around. Definitely affordable given that the rest of our team won't be making much at all for the next two years. That's the way I'd try to do it, but I think Loria's too cheap. Because I know Loria won't do it, I think we would be best off (don't shoot me) trading Dontrelle and locking up Cabrera. As much as I love Dontrelle, Cabrera is a once or twice in a lifetime talent. Dealing away Willis could help us fill that hole in CF and bring in some more young arms, while dealing us a downgrade where we can best afford it and saving us $10 million a year. I'd hate to do it, but that's my prediction with what happens. Willis is one of those few players that many teams would likely overpay for.
September 22, 200620 yr Funny, I thought the same thing when writing it and instead of re-writing it I toyed with the idea of summing it up into an alegbraic expression, but thought it'd play too close to the script. Basically what I meant to say is that the cost to re-sign Miggy and Willis is probably above what we can afford without a new stadium. But with a new stadium, their prices now and probably then as well will be afforable. Therefore there's reason to wait. I thought there was something worthwhile hidden in that previous post. I agree. So now, on my list of things I once had and wish I always had, the revised(and PG version) list is: 1. All those Nolan Ryan rookie cards 2. My 1975 Trans-Am 3. A new stadium 4. Dontrelle 5. Cabrera
September 22, 200620 yr Author Loria has a good reason not to sign Willis to a long-term deal until he is no longer arby eligible, and that's health. You don't want to lock him up to 3-years $21 Million this off-season and have him need Tommy John or something. On Dontrelle, you wait as long as you can to sign long-term. With Miguel, you could have similar concerns, but the are not nearly as likely. It would make a lot of sense to sign Cabrera long-term now, and make his salary increase more so toward the end of the contract because A) We will be able to take on a lot more salary when a stadium is done, and it should be by the time the middle of his contract comes around and B) Even if the stadium never ever happens, you could trade him and let the other team take on the tail end of that contract. It would be win-win. Health concerns are not legitimate concerns in my mind when it comes to Dontrelle and Miguel. Both players have proven themselves to be extremely durable. If anything, this should argue MORE for the Marlins signing them to long term contracts. And it is not win-win if you have to trade Miguel because you cannot afford his contract, no matter what you get back for him. For any pitcher, no matter how "durable" they are, health is always something you should be concerned about (unless their name is Livan Hernandez). You never know if/when Willis' funky motion will catch up to him. And I do think it's win-win even if you have to trade Miguel, because even though that would hurt this organization, you would literally be able to get any player(s) in this league you'd like. Health is always a concern, of course, but you have to look at whether they are injury prone on the field. Dontrelle has proven over the course of his 3+ seasons that this should be the least of our concerns. In fact, he is a workhorse. Miguel is the type of player you don't just trade away without making an honest attempt to sign to a long term contract. You just don't. He is one of the top 5 hitters in baseball today as a 23 year old and has the potential to be one of the greatest to ever play the game. Funny, I thought the same thing when writing it and instead of re-writing it I toyed with the idea of summing it up into an alegbraic expression, but thought it'd play too close to the script. Basically what I meant to say is that the cost to re-sign Miggy and Willis is probably above what we can afford without a new stadium. But with a new stadium, their prices now and probably then as well will be afforable. Therefore there's reason to wait. When exactly do you think the cost to re-sign Cabrera and Willis will be above what the Marlins can afford without a new stadium?
September 22, 200620 yr Author Because I know Loria won't do it, I think we would be best off (don't shoot me) trading Dontrelle and locking up Cabrera. As much as I love Dontrelle, Cabrera is a once or twice in a lifetime talent. Dealing away Willis could help us fill that hole in CF and bring in some more young arms, while dealing us a downgrade where we can best afford it and saving us $10 million a year. I'd hate to do it, but that's my prediction with what happens. Willis is one of those few players that many teams would likely overpay for. It seems that with a team filled mostly with players set to make the league minimum over the next two seasons if both Miguel and Dontrelle were signed to frontloaded multi-year deals that the Marlins could not only afford it, they would still stand to make a profit.
September 22, 200620 yr Loria has a good reason not to sign Willis to a long-term deal until he is no longer arby eligible, and that's health. You don't want to lock him up to 3-years $21 Million this off-season and have him need Tommy John or something. On Dontrelle, you wait as long as you can to sign long-term. With Miguel, you could have similar concerns, but the are not nearly as likely. It would make a lot of sense to sign Cabrera long-term now, and make his salary increase more so toward the end of the contract because A) We will be able to take on a lot more salary when a stadium is done, and it should be by the time the middle of his contract comes around and B) Even if the stadium never ever happens, you could trade him and let the other team take on the tail end of that contract. It would be win-win. Health concerns are not legitimate concerns in my mind when it comes to Dontrelle and Miguel. Both players have proven themselves to be extremely durable. If anything, this should argue MORE for the Marlins signing them to long term contracts. And it is not win-win if you have to trade Miguel because you cannot afford his contract, no matter what you get back for him. For any pitcher, no matter how "durable" they are, health is always something you should be concerned about (unless their name is Livan Hernandez). You never know if/when Willis' funky motion will catch up to him. And I do think it's win-win even if you have to trade Miguel, because even though that would hurt this organization, you would literally be able to get any player(s) in this league you'd like. Health is always a concern, of course, but you have to look at whether they are injury prone on the field. Dontrelle has proven over the course of his 3+ seasons that this should be the least of our concerns. In fact, he is a workhorse. Miguel is the type of player you don't just trade away without making an honest attempt to sign to a long term contract. You just don't. He is one of the top 5 hitters in baseball today as a 23 year old and has the potential to be one of the greatest to ever play the game. Funny, I thought the same thing when writing it and instead of re-writing it I toyed with the idea of summing it up into an alegbraic expression, but thought it'd play too close to the script. Basically what I meant to say is that the cost to re-sign Miggy and Willis is probably above what we can afford without a new stadium. But with a new stadium, their prices now and probably then as well will be afforable. Therefore there's reason to wait. When exactly do you think the cost to re-sign Cabrera and Willis will be above what the Marlins can afford without a new stadium? IMOFALI (In my opinion from admittingly little information), that would have been very soon without the restructuring. But even if their cost surpasses that amount, it may be worth making some sacrifices as long as a new stadium deal looks promising.
September 22, 200620 yr The market has been set guys. Mark Teixiera, arbitration year 4/5 buyouts. 2 years $15.4 million ($6.4, $9). This is the closest parallel to Cabrera. Cabrera will make give or take a million from this if the Marlins offer him a 2 year deal and not go to arbitration. Looking longterm, the only other realistic longterm contract is Pujols, signed in first year of arbitration. 7/$100 or 8/$110 with the option, broken down into $7, $11, $14, $15, $16, $16, $16, $5 mil buyout or $16 mil. So it's safe to say Cabrera will make between $6.4 and $7 in 2007. In 2008, he will make between $9 and $11. I'm under the impression Cabrera is better then Teixiera, not as good as Pujols (and I really don't want to argue that with anyone). A 2 year deal will only cost the franchise 2/$16-17. However screw that. Lock him up. We are looking at Cabrera at around 7/$95 or 8/$108 for a longterm deal, broken down into something like $6.75, $10, $13, $14.5, $15.75, $16, $16, with a year 8 option $3 mil buyout or $16 mil contract . I think that is incredibly fair market value, and his agent would ask for no less for that amount of years. He'd be a free agent at 30/31 years old and have the opportunity to sign a second mega contract maximizing his potential earnings. If Loria wants to spend, this is what it costs. As for Willis, a lot of comparables around his time of career signing a contract. Halladay 4/$42 Santana 4/$39.75 Escobar 3/$28.5 Beckett 4/$42 (with option, 3/$30 otherwise) Sabathia 2/$17.75 Webb 4/$19.5 Haren 4/$12.65 We waited 2 years to long for the Haren discount, 1 year to long to get the Brandon Webb discount, Willis is above Escobar and Sabathia in pedigree, but a little behind Roy and Johan. Boston just paid Beckett to much (and BJays with AJ) which hurts the market a little, so no sense in arguing or trying to shave off a million bucks over 4 years. Just give it to Dontrelle straight. Willis 4/$40. ($7, $9, $11, $13). Done. I'll take it further, I think the Marlins need to offer a third player a long term deal - Hanley. The pitchers, let's all give them another year to prove it. We can give Brandon Webb deals to JJ, Olsen, whoever, after they show it a second year. We have so much depth, no sense in giving out those deals yet. Uggla, Hammer, and Jacobs need to prove it again for long term buy out deals, as all are older prospects and have longterm red flags despite their various levels of success. Hermida, injured or I'd throw him in the category. But Hanley. Superstar production as a 22 year old, always held as a top prospect. There is no reason not to buy him out right now. Let's look at comparables after 1 season. Bobby Crosby 5/$12.75 Jhonny Peralta 5/$13 (6/$20 with option) Michael Young 4/$10.5 after 3rd year < - should fire agent Hanley obviously destroyed these 3 on first year production so he will start off higher. He would easily accept a 5/$14-15 deal. I know it's a pipe dream because Loria won't spend until the stadium is done and it's beinfest's idiotic policy to go year to year with arbitration, but this is my contractual dream for the offseason among current players. Cabrera 7/$95 or 8/$108 Willis 4/$40 Hanley 5/$14
September 22, 200620 yr Author The market has been set guys. Mark Teixiera, arbitration year 4/5 buyouts. 2 years $15.4 million ($6.4, $9). This is the closest parallel to Cabrera. Cabrera will make give or take a million from this if the Marlins offer him a 2 year deal and not go to arbitration. Looking longterm, the only other realistic longterm contract is Pujols, signed in first year of arbitration. 7/$100 or 8/$110 with the option, broken down into $7, $11, $14, $15, $16, $16, $16, $5 mil buyout or $16 mil. So it's safe to say Cabrera will make between $6.4 and $7 in 2007. In 2008, he will make between $9 and $11. I'm under the impression Cabrera is better then Teixiera, not as good as Pujols (and I really don't want to argue that with anyone). A 2 year deal will only cost the franchise 2/$16-17. However screw that. Lock him up. We are looking at Cabrera at around 7/$95 or 8/$108 for a longterm deal, broken down into something like $6.75, $10, $13, $14.5, $15.75, $16, $16, with a year 8 option $3 mil buyout or $16 mil contract . I think that is incredibly fair market value, and his agent would ask for no less for that amount of years. He'd be a free agent at 30/31 years old and have the opportunity to sign a second mega contract maximizing his potential earnings. If Loria wants to spend, this is what it costs. As for Willis, a lot of comparables around his time of career signing a contract. Halladay 4/$42 Santana 4/$39.75 Escobar 3/$28.5 Beckett 4/$42 (with option, 3/$30 otherwise) Sabathia 2/$17.75 Webb 4/$19.5 Haren 4/$12.65 We waited 2 years to long for the Haren discount, 1 year to long to get the Brandon Webb discount, Willis is above Escobar and Sabathia in pedigree, but a little behind Roy and Johan. Boston just paid Beckett to much (and BJays with AJ) which hurts the market a little, so no sense in arguing or trying to shave off a million bucks over 4 years. Just give it to Dontrelle straight. Willis 4/$40. ($7, $9, $11, $13). Done. I'll take it further, I think the Marlins need to offer a third player a long term deal - Hanley. The pitchers, let's all give them another year to prove it. We can give Brandon Webb deals to JJ, Olsen, whoever, after they show it a second year. We have so much depth, no sense in giving out those deals yet. Uggla, Hammer, and Jacobs need to prove it again for long term buy out deals, as all are older prospects and have longterm red flags despite their various levels of success. Hermida, injured or I'd throw him in the category. But Hanley. Superstar production as a 22 year old, always held as a top prospect. There is no reason not to buy him out right now. Let's look at comparables after 1 season. Bobby Crosby 5/$12.75 Jhonny Peralta 5/$13 (6/$20 with option) Michael Young 4/$10.5 after 3rd year < - should fire agent Hanley obviously destroyed these 3 on first year production so he will start off higher. He would easily accept a 5/$14-15 deal. I know it's a pipe dream because Loria won't spend until the stadium is done and it's beinfest's idiotic policy to go year to year with arbitration, but this is my contractual dream for the offseason among current players. Cabrera 7/$95 or 8/$108 Willis 4/$40 Hanley 5/$14 That was a very good assessment, MarlinsLou. My question is do you think more creative contracts frontloading some major chunks of salary for the first couple years, then reverting to lower salaries for the lean years (2009-2010) when the rest of the team will be arby eligible and the Marlins may not have a new stadium yet, and then reverting to higher pay for the remaining years when the Marlins (hopefully) have a new stadium would work better? Using your numbers, lets say something like this: Willis 4/$40. ($13, $11, $9, $7) Cabrera 7/$95 ($14.5, $13, $10, $6.75, $15.75, $16, $16) I'm just trying to think of deals that the Marlins could afford long term and it seems like these types of deals I outlined would be more likely to allow the Marlins to keep Dontrelle and Miguel for the length of their contracts instead of having to dump them when the big bucks kick in later on AND you have to pay large arby salaries to a dozen or so players. It seems like backloaded contracts would make it more necessary that the Marlins either trade Willis and/or Cabrera or most of our first year players once they become arby eligible in order to keep Willis and/or Cabrera.
September 22, 200620 yr miggy 7 years 84 million a fair deal for both side imo d-train 4 yrs 32 million i dont want to see either leave however the marlins have pitching to cushion the loss of willis you lose miggy you have NO ONE who can come close to the production he puts up, he cant be replaced
September 22, 200620 yr The market has been set guys. Mark Teixiera, arbitration year 4/5 buyouts. 2 years $15.4 million ($6.4, $9). This is the closest parallel to Cabrera. Cabrera will make give or take a million from this if the Marlins offer him a 2 year deal and not go to arbitration. Looking longterm, the only other realistic longterm contract is Pujols, signed in first year of arbitration. 7/$100 or 8/$110 with the option, broken down into $7, $11, $14, $15, $16, $16, $16, $5 mil buyout or $16 mil. So it's safe to say Cabrera will make between $6.4 and $7 in 2007. In 2008, he will make between $9 and $11. I'm under the impression Cabrera is better then Teixiera, not as good as Pujols (and I really don't want to argue that with anyone). A 2 year deal will only cost the franchise 2/$16-17. However screw that. Lock him up. We are looking at Cabrera at around 7/$95 or 8/$108 for a longterm deal, broken down into something like $6.75, $10, $13, $14.5, $15.75, $16, $16, with a year 8 option $3 mil buyout or $16 mil contract . I think that is incredibly fair market value, and his agent would ask for no less for that amount of years. He'd be a free agent at 30/31 years old and have the opportunity to sign a second mega contract maximizing his potential earnings. If Loria wants to spend, this is what it costs. As for Willis, a lot of comparables around his time of career signing a contract. Halladay 4/$42 Santana 4/$39.75 Escobar 3/$28.5 Beckett 4/$42 (with option, 3/$30 otherwise) Sabathia 2/$17.75 Webb 4/$19.5 Haren 4/$12.65 We waited 2 years to long for the Haren discount, 1 year to long to get the Brandon Webb discount, Willis is above Escobar and Sabathia in pedigree, but a little behind Roy and Johan. Boston just paid Beckett to much (and BJays with AJ) which hurts the market a little, so no sense in arguing or trying to shave off a million bucks over 4 years. Just give it to Dontrelle straight. Willis 4/$40. ($7, $9, $11, $13). Done. I'll take it further, I think the Marlins need to offer a third player a long term deal - Hanley. The pitchers, let's all give them another year to prove it. We can give Brandon Webb deals to JJ, Olsen, whoever, after they show it a second year. We have so much depth, no sense in giving out those deals yet. Uggla, Hammer, and Jacobs need to prove it again for long term buy out deals, as all are older prospects and have longterm red flags despite their various levels of success. Hermida, injured or I'd throw him in the category. But Hanley. Superstar production as a 22 year old, always held as a top prospect. There is no reason not to buy him out right now. Let's look at comparables after 1 season. Bobby Crosby 5/$12.75 Jhonny Peralta 5/$13 (6/$20 with option) Michael Young 4/$10.5 after 3rd year < - should fire agent Hanley obviously destroyed these 3 on first year production so he will start off higher. He would easily accept a 5/$14-15 deal. I know it's a pipe dream because Loria won't spend until the stadium is done and it's beinfest's idiotic policy to go year to year with arbitration, but this is my contractual dream for the offseason among current players. Cabrera 7/$95 or 8/$108 Willis 4/$40 Hanley 5/$14 Lou, I love the painstaking time you put into getting the numbers, but really, for the Marlins, it makes little sense to go long term with any player unless we're buying out some of the free agent years. That would take a fiscally irresponsible leap with Willis (5 year deals for a pitcher are just bad ideas), and be of a length that Hanley would not, with informed advice, agree to. To me, by allowing Willis to reach arbitration, it's probably in our best interests to go year to year with him until after next season at the earliest, and Hanley won't go long-term with us until he hits that first arby year, which would allow us to buy out a free-agent year or two. Cabrera, on the other hand, needs that 8 year deal. Period, end of story. Still, if you wouldn't mind sharing, I'd love the link to where you get your payroll figures.
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