Posted March 5, 200718 yr http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...res/263445.html 2007 Top 100 Prospects By Baseball America Staff February 28, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See also: Top 100 Prospects Breakdown By The Numbers See also: Jim Callis Top 100 Prospects Chat -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We proudly present our annual list of the best young players in the game, the culmination of our offseason prospect rankings. But this year we bring you the list with a twist. While we'd like to think that every player here will go on to big league success, even these players--the best of the best--could flop. Even the players at the very top of the list could fall victim to injuries, off-field trouble or poor performance. The key is to spot these problems as early as possible. Years of prospect watching have led us to look for common flaws in players that can be red flags. These flaws can show in performance and be borne out by statistics--such as a high number of walks for a pitcher--or in a tools profile, such as position players who will "develop power." As you read through the top 100 list you'll see some of these risk factors, highlighted in a current player on the list, just click on the button to see that player's risk factor. We'll also flash back to top 100 alumni who had similar risk factors, giving a best and worst case for the current player. (For those players, we also list their peak position in the top 100). The top 100 list was hammered out by Editors in Chief Will Lingo and John Manuel, Executive Editor Jim Callis and National Writer Chris Kline. Callis wrote the capsules on each player. 1 DAISUKE MATSUZAKA, rhp, Red Sox Who needs a gyroball? He has six pitches that grade out as plus or plus-plus at their best, and he'll be the best Japanese import ever. And no, we're not forgetting about Ichiro Opening Day Age: 26. ETA: 2007 2 ALEX GORDON, 3b, Royals College Player of the Year in 2005, Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 . . . Rookie of the Year in 2007 Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 3 DELMON YOUNG, of, Devil Rays Took the Albert Belle comparisons too far when he tossed a bat at an umpire last year, but he can rake Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2007 4 PHILIP HUGHES, rhp, Yankees As good as Chien-Ming Wang has been, this homegrown ace will be even better Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2007 5 HOMER BAILEY, rhp, Reds The next great Texas fireballer in the tradition of Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2007 6 CAMERON MAYBIN, of, Tigers Tremendous athlete had even more polish at the plate than Detroit expected Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2009 7 EVAN LONGORIA, 3b, Devil Rays Backed up his reputation as the 2006 draft's best pure hitter by batting .315 with 18 homers in his pro debut Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2007 8 BRANDON WOOD, ss, Angels More than capable at shortstop, he may shift to third base to get his power bat into the Los Angeles lineup Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 9 JUSTIN UPTON, of, Diamondbacks No. 1 overall pick in 2006 didn't have a banner debut, but he still has Ken Griffey Jr. tools Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2009 10 ANDREW MILLER, lhp, Tigers The consensus top prospect in the 2006 draft was a steal at sixth overall and nearly made Detroit's World Series roster Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 11 TIM LINCECUM, rhp, Giants Size doesn't matter. His fastball-curveball combo prompts comparisons to Bob Feller and Sandy Koufax Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 12 CHRIS YOUNG, of, Diamondbacks White Sox fans still can't believe their club traded his 30-30 potential to get Javier Vazquez Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 13 ANDREW McCUTCHEN, of, Pirates Reached Double-A quicker than any other outfielder in a bumper 2005 high school crop Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2008 14 JAY BRUCE, of, Reds Beat out Maybin and Upton for top-prospect honors in the Midwest League last summer Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2009 15 TROY TULOWITZKI, ss, Rockies Reached the majors 14 months after signing, a franchise record for a position player Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 16 YOVANI GALLARDO, rhp, Brewers Led the minors in strikeouts (188 in 155 innings) and ranked third in ERA (1.86) during breakout 2006 season Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2007 17 REID BRIGNAC, ss, Devil Rays Tampa Bay doesn't have to fool around with B.J. Upton at shortstop any longer with Brignac on the way Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 18 CARLOS GONZALEZ, of, Diamondbacks As if Arizona didn't have enough multitooled outfielders already Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 19 ANDY LaROCHE, 3b, Dodgers Takes after brother (slugging Pirates first baseman Adam) more than father (former all-star reliever Dave) Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 20 MIKE PELFREY, rhp, Mets Made the majors three months into his pro career, and should be even better now with his new slider Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 21 MATT GARZA, rhp, Twins Unheralded 2005 first-rounder already has become a mainstay in Minnesota's rotation Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 22 FERNANDO MARTINEZ, of, Mets Followed up an impressive debut as a 17-year-old by holding his own in the Arizona Fall League Opening Day Age: 18. ETA: 2009 23 ADAM MILLER, rhp, Indians Regained knockout slider and plus fastball and refined his changeup after 2005 elbow injury Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 24 CLAYTON KERSHAW, lhp, Dodgers Joins fellow 2006 first-rounder Andrew Miller as the top two lefthander prospects in baseball Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2009 25 BILLY BUTLER, of, Royals His bat will have to carry him, but it can--he's a career .344/.417/.564 hitter in pro ball Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2007 26 RYAN BRAUN, 3b, Brewers With Corey Koskie ailing, Braun could be Milwaukee's Opening Day third baseman Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 27 JOSE TABATA, of, Yankees Friendly rivalry with Martinez began last season in low Class A and will pick up soon in New York. Opening Day Age: 18. ETA: 2009 28 ADAM JONES, of, Mariners Good call by Seattle to shelve his mid-90s fastball and make him an everyday player Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2007 29 COLBY RASMUS, of, Cardinals Broke Bo Jackson's Alabama state prep home run record and has continued to drive the ball as a pro Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 30 FRANKLIN MORALES, lhp, Rockies Few lefthanders can match his mid-90s fastball or power curveball . . . Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 31 SCOTT ELBERT, lhp, Dodgers . . . though this Missouri product, who has similar swing-and-miss stuff, is one who can Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 32 LUKE HOCHEVAR, rhp, Royals After a celebrated holdout, he improved his stock in indy ball and went first in the '06 draft Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008 33 JACOBY ELLSBURY, of, Red Sox Boston downplays Johnny Damon comparisons, but the parallels are hard to ignore Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008 34 NICK ADENHART, rhp, Angels He's making Los Angeles look very smart for signing him for $710,000 out of the 2004 draft even though he needed Tommy John surgery Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2008 35 JEFF NIEMANN, rhp, Devil Rays Put two years of health problems behind him and started pitching to his potential in the second half of 2006 Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2007 36 JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA, c, Braves Wrist injury led to an off year in 2006, but he's still the game's best catching prospect Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 37 JACOB McGEE, lhp, Devil Rays Has a chance for three plus pitches, posts dominant numbers and still flies under the prospect radar as part of a loaded Devil Rays farm system Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 38 HUNTER PENCE, of, Astros Won't win any style points, but he hits for power and average and has improved his running and defense, and he should move into the Houston outfield this season Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 39 ADAM LIND, of, Blue Jays He just hits: .392 in his final season at South Alabama, .319 in the minors and .367 in a September callup Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 40 CHRIS VOLSTAD, rhp, Marlins Polished prep product pounds the bottom of strike zone, and he led all pitchers in the Top 100 Prospects list in groundball outs last season Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 41 CARLOS CARRASCO, rhp, Phillies Made huge strides last year, cutting his ERA in low Class A from 7.04 in 2005 to 2.26 Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 42 JASON HIRSH, rhp, Rockies Acquired from the Astros in the Jason Jennings deal, he should be nearly as effective at a fraction of the cost Opening Day Age: 25. ETA: 2007 43 JOEY VOTTO, 1b, Reds Led the Southern League in AVG (.319), OBP (.408) and SLG (.547) after Cincinnati turned him loose at the plate Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 44 JAMES LONEY, 1b, Dodgers Bat finally came back to life in 2006; led minors in hitting (.380) and had a nine-RBI game in majors Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 45 JOSH FIELDS, 3b, White Sox This former college quarterback is working out much better for Chicago than Joe Borchard did Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2007 46 IAN STEWART, 3b, Rockies Worst year of his pro career still included .803 OPS as 21-year-old in Double-A Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 47 BILL ROWELL, 3b, Orioles Barry Bonds aficionado has premium power potential but may outgrow third base sooner than later Opening Day Age: 18. ETA: 2009 48 DEXTER FOWLER, of, Rockies Five-tool center fielder has added switch-hitting, strength and polish since signing Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2009 49 FELIX PIE, of, Cubs Chicago loves his tools and his history of winning--four championships in five pro seasons Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 50 TRAVIS BUCK, of, Athletics Has hit at least .302 at each of his four pro stops and .328 overall Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 51 CLAY BUCHHOLZ, rhp, Red Sox His fastball hit 97 mph at the end of last season, and at times it's his fourth-best pitch Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2008 52 DONALD VEAL, lhp, Cubs His delivery isn't quite as unconventional as former Chicago farmhand Dontrelle Willis', but his stuff is better Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2008 53 TRAVIS SNIDER, of, Blue Jays Some scouts called him the best hitter in the 2006 draft; won Appy League MVP award in his pro debut Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2009 54 CHUCK LOFGREN, lhp, Indians Several clubs liked minor league wins leader (17) better as a hitter out of high school Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 55 RYAN SWEENEY, of, White Sox Has been on the fast track since hitting .367 in big league camp as a 19-year-old Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 56 JOHN DANKS, lhp, White Sox Quality young pitching is hard to acquire, yet White Sox traded for Danks and Gio Gonzalez this offseason Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2007 57 HUMBERTO SANCHEZ, rhp, Yankees Key piece to Gary Sheffield trade could help New York as a starter or a reliever this year Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2007 58 TROY PATTON, lhp, Astros Combination of stuff and polish got him to Double-A at age 20 Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 59 JONATHAN SANCHEZ, lhp, Giants The definition of missing bats: 74 whiffs, 27 hits allowed in 55 innings last year Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2007 60 CARLOS GOMEZ, of, Mets Career-high .773 OPS last year shows he's only scratching the surface of his potential Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 61 ERICK AYBAR, ss, Angels Could be a valuable piece of trade bait with Orlando Cabrera ahead of him and Brandon Wood behind him Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 62 JEFF CLEMENT, c, Mariners With Kenji Johjima in Seattle, Clement could move to first base when his power bat is ready for the majors Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008 63 MIGUEL MONTERO, c, Diamondbacks Proved his 2005 breakout was no fluke, allowing Arizona to deal Johnny Estrada to get Doug Davis Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 64 TREVOR CROWE, of, Indians Prototype center fielder will have to find a new home with Grady Sizemore in Cleveland Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008 65 ELVIS ANDRUS, ss, Braves Kept his head above water in low Class A at age 17, and he has offensive potential to go with plus defense and speed Opening Day Age: 18. ETA: 2010 66 GLEN PERKINS, lhp, Twins Pitched well enough in September to beat out Matt Garza for a spot on Minnesota's playoff roster Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2007 67 DARIC BARTON1b, Athletics Think the Cardinals might regret giving up Dan Haren and Barton in the Mark Mulder trade Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2007 68 ERIC HURLEY, rhp, Rangers More fun to watch than any member of the Rangers' more-heralded (and since-disbanded) D-V-D trio Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 69 BRAD LINCOLN, rhp, Pirates Has overpowering stuff, but spring forearm strain was the latest of a litany of injuries since signing Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 70 JAIME GARCIA, lhp, Cardinals Not a bad pro debut for a 22nd-round pick: reached high Class A at age 19 and pitched in the Futures Game Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2008 71 KEVIN SLOWEY, rhp, Twins Has the best command of any prospect in baseball, evidenced by 235-30 K-BB ratio in 221 innings Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 72 GIO GONZALEZ, lhp, White Sox The White Sox liked him so much they reacquired him this winter after including him in the Jim Thome deal a year earlier Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 73 PHILIP HUMBER, rhp, Mets Blew out his elbow 15 starts into his pro career in 2005, but bounced all the way back last year Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2008 74 NEIL WALKER, 3b, Pirates Bat may take off now that he has a healthy wrist and has moved out from behind the plate Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 75 JOBA CHAMBERLAIN, rhp, Yankees Highest-drafted Native American ever could be a steal with the 41st overall pick last June Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 76 GREG REYNOLDS, rhp, Rockies Quibble with his strikeout rate if you must, but he has stuff, size, command, makeup . . . and he wins Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 77 BRETT SINKBEIL, rhp, Marlins Added 35 pounds of muscle and turned himself into a first-rounder in three years at Missouri State Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2008 78 BRANDON ERBE, rhp, Orioles Baltimore stole hometown high schooler in 2005's third round; now he's throwing 92-97 mph Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2009 79 ELIJAH DUKES, of, Devil Rays His volatile temper still overshadows his wondrous tools Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2007 80 JEFF SAMARDZIJA, rhp, Cubs Most accomplished wide receiver in Notre Dame history has huge upside on the mound Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2009 81 DANIEL BARD, rhp, Red Sox His fastball eats up bats like few others, thanks to its velocity (up to 100 mph) and heavy life Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2009 82 ALBERTO CALLASPO, 2b, Diamondbacks The minors' best contact hitter will threaten Orlando Hudson's job if he continues to add power Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 83 MICHAEL BOWDEN, rhp, Red Sox His delivery may be unorthodox, but it works for him and his stuff is unquestionable Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 84 UBALDO JIMENEZ, rhp, Rockies Kept pace with Felix Hernandez until he came down with a stress fracture in his shoulder in 2004 Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 85 MATT ALBERS, rhp, Astros Has matured significantly, physically and mentally, since signing as a 23rd-round draft-and-follow Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2007 86 BRIAN BARTON, of, Indians Has an aerospace engineering degree from Miami--and more pure baseball ability than Crowe Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2008 87 BRANDON MORROW, rhp, Mariners Can blow hitters away with his fastball, slider or splitter Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2008 88 DREW STUBBS, of, Reds Great tools across the board made him a potential No. 1 pick in the 2006 draft, but questions about his bat pushed him to No. 8 Opening Day Age: 22. ETA: 2009 89 KURT SUZUKI, c, Athletics Has provided clutch hits at Cal State Fullerton, throughout the minors and with Team USA Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008 90 MATT HARRISON, lhp, Braves The closest thing Atlanta has had to Tom Glavine since Glavine left as a free agent Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008 91 WILL INMAN, rhp, Brewers Solid stuff, tremendous command have led to 16-2, 1.77 record and 193-36 K-BB ratio in pro ball Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 92 CHRIS IANNETTA, c, Rockies Offensive-minded catcher gives Colorado eight players on this list, more than any other club Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2007 93 BRENT LILLIBRIDGE, ss, Braves An underrated part of the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal, he could fill Atlanta's second-base void Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008 94 CHRIS PARMELEE, of/1b, Twins Advanced hitting skills, developing power made him the 20th overall pick last June Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2010 95 COLLIN BALESTER, rhp, Nationals Pitching-needy Washington might think about promoting him, but he needs a solid year in the minors Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 96 SEAN WEST, lhp, Marlins Has more stuff than most southpaws and plenty of mound savvy, too; looked great last season after early-season shoulder soreness Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 97 WADE DAVIS, rhp, Devil Rays Formed potent one-two punch in Midwest League with McGee last year, and capped strong finish with a no-hitter in his final start Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2009 98 MICAH OWINGS, rhp, Diamondbacks Now a full-time pitcher, he made a run at the national prep home run record and was a two-way star in college Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2007 99 PEDRO BEATO, rhp, Orioles Went from Tommy John surgery in 2004 to $1 million supplemental first-rounder in 2006 Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2009 100 DELLIN BETANCES, rhp, Yankees He's raw, but he also has good stuff and plenty of projection remaining. Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2010
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