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BP: How the Florida Marlins Can Win the World Series


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Excellent article from one of my favorite baseball sites on the net. Christina Kahrl breaks down how the Marlins can win the World Series...




Now, I know what you're thinking, Marlins-brand hope and faith might seem an unusual topic to bring up, especially when so many people were talking about whether they would lose 100 games just one year ago, and especially when this club instead became everyone's favorite underdog, as well as Exhibit A for both Admin Beinfest's status as the game's most underrated General Manager and a straightforward exposition on the easy virtue of free and freely-available talent. But last season's flirtation with the wild-card pennant race and geographical regrets over not being lucky enough to somehow wind up in the National League Central Division only underscore that there's a difference between being a human interest story and runner-up, and actually becoming the big kid on the block. What is it going to take to make the Marlins a team that gets into the playoffs, and then hopes to take its '85 Royals or '06 Cardinals star turn in October's spotlight?


1. Miami remains pumpkin-free in the lineup: This basically means nobody takes the steps backwards that would kill this club's chances deader than Elvis, and PECOTA's more than a little skeptical. In the lineup, PECOTA's anticipating a few steps backwards, not because any of last year's regulars don't belong?setting Reggie Abercrombie aside?or are about to go Joe Charboneau on us, but because it sees most of these guys taking small steps backwards. If you want to be polite, you'll call them consolidation seasons, but comparing last year's performances in the lineup by WARP to PECOTA's median-projection expectations for them this year:





Player Age 2006 2007 Net

Miguel Cabrera 24 10.2 7.9 -2.3

Dan Uggla 27 8.2 4.8 -3.4

Hanley Ramirez 23 8.1 6.1 -2.0

Josh Willingham 28 4.6 4.2 -0.4

Miguel Olivo 28 4.0 2.6 -1.4

Mike Jacobs 26 2.8 2.7 -0.1

Jeremy Hermida 23 1.7 4.0 +2.3

TOTAL 39.6 32.3 -7.3

Age is the player's age in the 2007 season to come, as of July 1. For a team hoping to move up from 78 wins, this isn't good news. Basically, for the Fish to have a shot, most or all of that can't be allowed to happen, and it's going to take more than a Loria diktat to keep it from being so. What's really apparent is that this is a collection of hitters in their primes right now. The notable exceptions are Cabrera and Ramirez, the club's true building blocks, and we'll get to Jeremy Hermida in a second, but the absence of a thirtysomething is not the same thing as being a genuinely young ballclub. Generally, this is a lineup of ready-now guys without a ton of up-side left to show?but with two superstars in the making in their midst.


So what has to happen here? Hanley Ramirez can't do something like follow last season's breakout with a Jhonny Peralta-style low tide after high?he needs to keep being the new Barry Larkin. Uggla has to remain more than just the Rule 5 steal he was last season, and he needs to slug better than .450 again. PECOTA sees that as his expected level of production, but the good news is that it doesn't look like he's the sort of guy who's going to suddenly see his ability to make contact or contact with power go away?last year's clip of striking out in 18% of his plate appearances wasn't different than his capacity to be fooled some of the time by some pitchers in Double-A in 2005. Miguel Olivo can't afford to go into one of the extended funks that have cost him opportunities to stick with the White Sox and Mariners. Basically, every monster under the bed has to sleep through the season.



The article continues over on BP.com

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good stuff.




A center fielder! My art collection for a center fielder!




Trade for Jeremy Reed before he gets stranded in a reserve role in Seattle. See if you can get Cory Sullivan from the Rockies for a bucket of pre-soaked balls. Anonymously spread nasty rumors about Gabe Gross or Franklin Gutierrez, and then trade for them. Ask the White Sox to pay freight on Scott Podsednik. Basically, do something, anything, that does not involve drinking the Alex Sanchez-brand Kool-Aid or taking another spin with Reggie Abercrombie. And no, no trading for Joey Gathright either. We're looking for solutions, not variations on a theme.

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posted yesterday, and Im surprised you liked the article JD...


I (along with a few others) didnt



I actually enjoyed her writing style the most. I didn't necessarily agree with everything she said. Sorry for the double post.


BP is just a great site for great info. The mainstream media has nothing on the BP guys.

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