Debate the NL East with Jayson Stark

 

"With the Mets and Phillies tied atop the National League East standings heading into their three-game series starting on Tuesday and the Marlins just a half-game out, there hasn't been a better time to debate: Who is going to win the NL East?"

The tightest division in baseball got even tighter over the weekend. So let's haul out our Ouija boards and try to sort out who's going to win the NL East.

 

THE CASE FOR THE PHILLIES: They've led the division, or at least have been tied for the lead, for the last 51 days in a row. They just traded for Joe Blanton, who should be a massive upgrade on Adam Eaton. And they're getting Brett Myers back after four sessions in the minor-league midseason renovation shop, during which he punched out 28 in 27 innings. So if those two moves stabilize their rotation, the numbers would indicate the Phillies ought to win this division--considering they lead the Mets and Marlins in runs scored, bullpen ERA and fielding percentage.

 

THE CASE FOR THE METS: It's September in reverse for the Mets. It took them less than four weeks to slice a 7.5-game Phillies lead to a half-game, just before the All-Star break. And they went from 5.5; out on the 4th of July to a tie for first quicker than you could say, ''10-game winning streak.'' So while there's still a debate about which of these teams is better, there's no doubt who's hotter. Since Jerry Manuel became their manager, the Mets are 19-12. They've averaged more than six runs a game. And they have a much more positive vibe, on and off the field.

 

THE CASE FOR THE MARLINS: OK, it's time to stop obsessing on the Marlins' run differential (minus-25). And their rotation ERA (5.15). And those messy defensive numbers (12 more errors than the next-worst defensive team in the National League). They're 98 games into the season. So who cares what their record ought to be. The Marlins are deep enough into the season that they are what their record says they are--namely, one very dangerous team. They lead the major leagues in homers (140). They have nine walkoff wins and 27 comeback wins. And their starting pitching is looking better all the time, with Josh Johnson off the DL, Anibal Sanchez not far behind and their best pitching prospect, Chris Volstad, finally in the big leagues. So why are people so quick to assume this team is going away?

 

THE VERDICT: » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

The fashionable choice would be to pick the Mets, but I'm not going to let the last couple of weeks talk me into that. If I line up the Mets and Phillies, I'm hard-pressed to find an area in which I think the Mets are substantially better. The Phillies have outscored them, outpitched them and outfielded them. And you can look that up. I'd take the Phillies' lineup and bullpen over the Mets' lineup and 'pen. And while the Mets may have better starting pitching, the Blanton trade and those never-ending Pedro Martinez questions have narrowed that margin considerably. The Phillies haven't played well for a month now. But the Mets have enough age, health and chemistry issues that I'm still picking the Phillies to win the East. Disagree? Go right ahead. That's what we're here for.

 

 

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Troy (Florida): It is unbelievable to me how the Marlins are not even considered here. Let us go position-by-position, and I will show you that the Marlins are better than both the Mets and the Phillies. First of all, Hanley is the best SS in the majors. Uggla is good (minus the defense) "WTF!?", and Cantu is the best 3B of the three. Willingham is a good corner outfielder, and the bullpen is a lot better than people give it credit for. with Pinto, Lindstrom, Nelson, and Gregg, this no-name bullpen has shut a lot of teams down. Our SP is the best of the three too. We have Nolasco (ERA 3.30), Johnson (ERA 3.50), Olsen (ERA 3.70), Volstad (ERA 0.80). These four SP are the best of any four, and all of them are young. What is more, the guy who threw the no-hitter, Anibal Sanchez, is coming back next week to be the fifth starter. Going into August, this is the best rotation in the NL. The Mets have a decent rotation, but their position players and bullpen doesn't compare with us, and the Phillies have an equal lineup and a slightly better bullpen and defense, but their SP cannot even compare with ours. I think the Marlins are gonna surprise a lot of people by competing for and possibly winning the NL East.

 

Jayson Stark: (1:46 PM ET ) Troy, I like your team. Let's get that straight. But the Marlins are NOT better on paper than the Mets and Phillies. Their bullpen has been terrific, but it hasn't been better than the Phillies. The rotation has some upside. I said that in the lede-in to this chat. But it's not the best of the three. And we have no idea what Sanchez is going to be when he comes back. That first year back after Tommy John is usually an adventure. So I'm not dismissing the Marlins in any way. But I do think you're letting your fandom blind you to what they're competing against.

 

Mike (Miami,FL): If I'm not mistaken, Anibal Sanchez did not have Tommy John surgery. Josh Johnson did.

 

Jayson Stark: (1:50 PM ET ) Sorry. My bad. You're exactly right. He had shoulder surgery. But the track record of pitchers coming back from major shoulder surgery is even worse than the track record of pitchers coming back from Tommy John. Nevertheless, thanks for checking up on me, Mike. Somebody has to do it!

 

:lol :owned

Troy (Florida): It is unbelievable to me how the Marlins are not even considered here. Let us go position-by-position, and I will show you that the Marlins are better than both the Mets and the Phillies. First of all, Hanley is the best SS in the majors. Uggla is good (minus the defense) "WTF?!", and Cantu is the best 3B of the three. Willingham is a good corner outfielder, and the bullpen is a lot better than people give it credit for. with Pinto, Lindstrom, Nelson, and Gregg, this no-name bullpen has shut a lot of teams down. Our SP is the best of the three too. We have Nolasco (ERA 3.30), Johnson (ERA 3.50), Olsen (ERA 3.70), Volstad (ERA 0.80). These four SP are the best of any four, and all of them are young. What is more, the guy who threw the no-hitter, Anibal Sanchez, is coming back next week to be the fifth starter. Going into August, this is the best rotation in the NL. The Mets have a decent rotation, but their position players and bullpen doesn't compare with us, and the Phillies have an equal lineup and a slightly better bullpen and defense, but their SP cannot even compare with ours. I think the Marlins are gonna surprise a lot of people by competing for and possibly winning the NL East.

 

Jayson Stark: (1:46 PM ET ) Troy, I like your team. Let's get that straight. But the Marlins are NOT better on paper than the Mets and Phillies. Their bullpen has been terrific, but it hasn't been better than the Phillies. The rotation has some upside. I said that in the lede-in to this chat. But it's not the best of the three. And we have no idea what Sanchez is going to be when he comes back. That first year back after Tommy John is usually an adventure. So I'm not dismissing the Marlins in any way. But I do think you're letting your fandom blind you to what they're competing against.

 

Mike (Miami,FL): If I'm not mistaken, Anibal Sanchez did not have Tommy John surgery. Josh Johnson did.

 

Jayson Stark: (1:50 PM ET ) Sorry. My bad. You're exactly right. He had shoulder surgery. But the track record of pitchers coming back from major shoulder surgery is even worse than the track record of pitchers coming back from Tommy John. Nevertheless, thanks for checking up on me, Mike. Somebody has to do it!

 

:lol :owned

 

Stark was corrected, but he makes more sense than the homer, who posted at the top.

First of all, Jorge Cantu is not the best 3B in the division. David Wright is the most complete 3B, in the division.

 

Second, he got some of the ERA's wrong.

 

Third, the Phillies don't have a slightly better bullpen and defense. They are just better in those 2 categories, considering the Marlins have the WORST defense in the NL...and as far as the bullpen goes, the Phillies have had the BEST bullpen in MLB, for much of the year.

 

And last but not least, Stark is right about Sanchez' shoulder surgery (I've been saying this for awhile now)...shoulder surgeries are difficult to comeback from, and to expect Anibal to be our saviour isn't fair to Anibal Sanchez. The only positive is that Anibal (at 75%) might still be an upgrade over Hendrickson, in the rotation.

Troy (Florida): It is unbelievable to me how the Marlins are not even considered here. Let us go position-by-position, and I will show you that the Marlins are better than both the Mets and the Phillies. First of all, Hanley is the best SS in the majors. Uggla is good (minus the defense) "WTF?!", and Cantu is the best 3B of the three. Willingham is a good corner outfielder, and the bullpen is a lot better than people give it credit for. with Pinto, Lindstrom, Nelson, and Gregg, this no-name bullpen has shut a lot of teams down. Our SP is the best of the three too. We have Nolasco (ERA 3.30), Johnson (ERA 3.50), Olsen (ERA 3.70), Volstad (ERA 0.80). These four SP are the best of any four, and all of them are young. What is more, the guy who threw the no-hitter, Anibal Sanchez, is coming back next week to be the fifth starter. Going into August, this is the best rotation in the NL. The Mets have a decent rotation, but their position players and bullpen doesn't compare with us, and the Phillies have an equal lineup and a slightly better bullpen and defense, but their SP cannot even compare with ours. I think the Marlins are gonna surprise a lot of people by competing for and possibly winning the NL East.

 

Jayson Stark: (1:46 PM ET ) Troy, I like your team. Let's get that straight. But the Marlins are NOT better on paper than the Mets and Phillies. Their bullpen has been terrific, but it hasn't been better than the Phillies. The rotation has some upside. I said that in the lede-in to this chat. But it's not the best of the three. And we have no idea what Sanchez is going to be when he comes back. That first year back after Tommy John is usually an adventure. So I'm not dismissing the Marlins in any way. But I do think you're letting your fandom blind you to what they're competing against.

 

Mike (Miami,FL): If I'm not mistaken, Anibal Sanchez did not have Tommy John surgery. Josh Johnson did.

 

Jayson Stark: (1:50 PM ET ) Sorry. My bad. You're exactly right. He had shoulder surgery. But the track record of pitchers coming back from major shoulder surgery is even worse than the track record of pitchers coming back from Tommy John. Nevertheless, thanks for checking up on me, Mike. Somebody has to do it!

 

:lol :owned

 

Stark was corrected, but he makes more sense than the homer, who posted at the top.

First of all, Jorge Cantu is not the best 3B in the division. David Wright is the most complete 3B, in the division.

 

Second, he got some of the ERA's wrong.

 

Third, the Phillies don't have a slightly better bullpen and defense. They are just better in those 2 categories, considering the Marlins have the WORST defense in the NL...and as far as the bullpen goes, the Phillies have had the BEST bullpen in MLB, for much of the year.

 

And last but not least, Stark is right about Sanchez' shoulder surgery (I've been saying this for awhile now)...shoulder surgeries are difficult to comeback from, and to expect Anibal to be our saviour isn't fair to Anibal Sanchez. The only positive is that Anibal (at 75%) might still be an upgrade over Hendrickson, in the rotation.

 

Agreed to a sense that a 5 man rotation with a healthy Anibal coming back would favor the Marlins, that being said we will just have to wait and see.

 

If the bats get hot we could go on a long winning streak, I dont much see a losing streak in the cards right now unless the bats get even colder than they already are.

On paper, we are better than the Mets, atleast offensively. As for the Phillies, we may not be better on paper, but we are a better(again atleast offensively) team. If the Phillies had... oh say... a NORMAL sized field... or the Marlins had say... A NORMAL sized field as well.. we would have(we already do have a little) so many more home runs than them. Imagine if they switched fields... our club has much more power.

On paper, we are better than the Mets, atleast offensively. As for the Phillies, we may not be better on paper, but we are a better(again atleast offensively) team. If the Phillies had... oh say... a NORMAL sized field... or the Marlins had say... A NORMAL sized field as well.. we would have(we already do have a little) so many more home runs than them. Imagine if they switched fields... our club has much more power.

 

Agreed, The Marlins have much more power, but will that power be enough to carry us back to the promise land. That is the question.

If they can fix their problem with slow pitching and being able to hit offspeed pitches... I think this division will easily be theres. If not, it will be a struggle, and I dont think we would stand a chance in the playoffs.