By Brad Edwards

Special to ESPN.com

 

As if we needed any more evidence.

 

The bizarre nature of the BCS Standings should be further exposed on Monday afternoon, when Ohio State will likely take over the No. 2 overall spot despite being ranked No. 4 in both polls of human voters.

 

Every team ranked in the BCS top 10 was victorious Saturday, so there wasn't expected to be much shakeup in this week's standings. But as we've observed time and time again, these rankings don't operate like the traditional polls. Teams can (and often do) fall after a win. This week, it was USC and TCU who fell.

 

Southern California's lead on Ohio State was almost a point and a half last week, but that evaporated because of the strength of OSU's weekend opponent (Purdue) compared with the weakness of USC's opponent (Arizona). The Buckeyes gained enough ground in the computer and schedule-strength elements of the BCS formula to more than offset the two-point advantage USC holds over them in average poll ranking.

 

The biggest surprise came from The New York Times' computer, which unexpectedly dropped the once-beaten Trojans from third to fifth. Texas (9-2) is No. 3 in those ratings, and Florida (8-3) is No. 4.

 

Fortunately for USC, it doesn't have any more games against teams as bad as Arizona. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Ohio State's final opponent (Michigan) is even stronger than Purdue. If the Buckeyes win that game, they will likely remain at No. 2 in the following week's BCS Standings.

 

The Battle For No. 2

For several weeks now, I've been saying that USC is vulnerable to getting jumped by a team ranked third in both polls. But now it's possible they will be overtaken by Ohio State even if the Buckeyes stay fourth in both polls.

 

OSU currently has an advantage of 0.96 on USC in schedule-strength points, which might not be too far from what the margin will be at the end of the season. I expect it would be about 0.6 at the very least.

 

The Buckeyes also have a lead of slightly more than a full point over the Trojans in computer average this week, which combined with schedule-strength numbers, enables them to offset the two-point deficit to USC in the polls.

 

But if the poll deficit stays at two spots, Ohio State might need to increase its advantage in the computers to hold off USC at the end of the season. The Trojans' quality-win bonus for beating Washington State could improve from one-tenth to as much as four-tenths of a point if the Cougars finish 10-2, and right now, that would be enough to push USC back to No. 2 in the BCS.

 

That, however, might be the best-case scenario for the Trojans. What if Washington beats WSU and leaves USC with no bonus points? And perhaps an even more frightening question for Southern California: What if Ohio State gains an even greater edge in the computers?

 

That was a possibility I hadn't given much thought until seeing LSU move ahead of USC into third place in this week's BCS version of Kenneth Massey's ratings. (In fairness to Massey, it should be pointed out that his original version, which uses margin of victory, has USC at No. 2 in the nation.) If teams with two and three losses can jump USC in The New York Times, why couldn't LSU do it in a few computers?

 

Frog Watching

TCU also might have received a bad omen from computer movement Sunday. After beating 5-4 Cincinnati, the Horned Frogs fell five spots (from 3 to 8) in the BCS version of Jeff Sagarin's ratings and also dropped two spots (from 6 to 8) in Massey's ratings. Don't expect those to be the only systems to drop TCU this week, which means it's not likely the team will stay in the BCS top six.

 

A win over 7-3 Southern Miss (Thursday on ESPN) would improve the Frogs' standing, but this recent fallout from a win over a 5-4 opponent can't help but make you wonder what will happen when Texas Christian plays 0-11 SMU in its season finale. The teams are bitter rivals, and the Mustangs would love nothing more than to ruin what could be the most exciting moment in the history of TCU athletics (a BCS berth). The ironic part is that they wouldn't do this by beating the Frogs on the field; SMU would instead defeat TCU in the computers by being such a weak opponent.

 

Unless several more top teams lose a game by Dec. 6, the chances of a top-six BCS finish by TCU aren't looking good.

 

BCS Standings Projections

1. Oklahoma

2. Ohio State

3. Southern California

4. LSU

5. Texas

6. Georgia

7. Tennessee

8. TCU

9. Michigan

10. Washington State

 

Obviously, things are probably going to change a lot over the next couple of weeks. One thing Edwards doesn't mention in his scenarios is that it's almost a lock that if Ohio State beats Michigan they'll pass LSU in the polls and move to 3rd in both. The margins between the 2 are so slim that OSU beating the #5 team in the land would almost definitely put them over LSU. That happens and the Buckeyes are as good as in.

 

Of course, this is all dependent on them finding a way to beat Michigan.

 

We shall see.

It would be a bloody slaughter if Ohio State plays Oklahoma, I REALLY HOPE that Ohio State loses at Michigan for their own good and the good of the big 10 conference as a whole, plus USC against Oklahoma would be one heck of a matchup. Sorry Big Hugg, but for this weekend I say GO BLUE!

I hope Michigan wipes to floor with the Buckeyes this weekend and that we can possibly have an even better Sugar Bowl matchup:

 

 

USC vs. Oklahoma

 

 

Not that the game will be any closer, but it will be alot more interesting. :thumbup

Kinda funny that a team could have gone 12-0 may not even have made the top 6 or even 12 (a win or loss against Southern Methodist would hurt them badly) of the final BCS poll thanks to some unlucky scheduling. But TCU is out of the mix. And that's a shame. I think the majority of people would concede that they could hold their own against Ohio State.

Kinda funny that a team could have gone 12-0 may not even have made the top 6 or even 12 (a win or loss against Southern Methodist would hurt them badly) of the final BCS poll thanks to some unlucky scheduling. But TCU is out of the mix. And that's a shame. I think the majority of people would concede that they could hold their own against Ohio State.

TCU would score 7 points against Ohio State. Maybe. On a good day.

And OSU would squeak by with a 13-7 win.

I think the majority of people would concede that they could hold their own against Ohio State.

Umm no, sorry. TCU doesn't have the athletes to compete with any of the BCS teams.