Does anyone know what kind of deal is REALLY being discussed with Vlad? I want facts, not speculation. I think it is obvious that we got something in the works that is backloaded and tied to a stadium. A deal like Lowell's was mentioned in the Baltimore Sun. Here is what I would propose (basically):

 

1) $12M with option tied to stadium deal ('04)

 

2a) if no deal, free agency with $3M dollar deferred money (=$15M playing for us for one year)

 

2b) if a deal is reached, rest of contract kicks in:

 

4 years remaining at $15M average:

 

'05 12M

'06 16M

'07 17M

'08 18M

 

= 5@ $15M per =$75M total.

 

I think that could be enough to get him, but whether or not we have an extra $4M this year (on top of Fudge's budgeted $8M this season and next) and next year.

very nice ideas Johnny, to bad it inst reality... yet.

yeah, i know. I think we may be out of the vlad race now, but hoping maybe our FO is roaming these boards and sees an idea they havent thought about - not that my idea is original or anything...

Also mentioned in the Baltimore Sun was that Vlad's agent rejected tying a deal to the stadium issue. Supposedly because he's worried that any injury this year or any slow down in his numbers could hurt his chances at a blockbuster deal. I suspect that Vlad also doesn't want to become a public face.

 

How's 'bout this?

3 years, $45 million dollars with a mutual option for another 3 years at 54 million. Tell them its to have insurance companies over the full length of the contract.

Insurance is a problem - as it seems that no company would ensure anyone less that three years, I read somewhere. So that would work. I think that actually may be part of the problem here - as is Vlad's concern with getting guaranteed money NOW and not later. He deserves that money now, and can get it. So we may have to bite the bullet to get him - but then again, that is probably the reason why we are starting to lose interest it seems.

How's 'bout this?

3 years, $45 million dollars with a mutual option for another 3 years at 54 million. Tell them its to have insurance companies over the full length of the contract.

I think that might work. Throw in a no trade clause, and maybe we could have this thing wrapped up tonight (ok, thats optomistic).

 

Pass it on to the Powers that Be Ed :thumbup

I have a feeling that Vlad is probably willing to take a pay cut to play here, but not offering a gurantee contract is asking way to many conscesions.

They say they already have a deal in place with the Orioles. So what's the hold up?

 

I'm betting that Vlad wants to see what the Marlins have to offer him. Florida is where he wants to go, and he's gonna give them every chance they can to sign him.

They say they already have a deal in place with the Orioles. So what's the hold up?

 

I'm betting that Vlad wants to see what the Marlins have to offer him. Florida is where he wants to go, and he's gonna give them every chance they can to sign him.

Yes, I agree. It is kind of obvious in making heads or tails of this situation that Vlad wants to play here, but has certain demands/expectations that need to be met. The good thing is that we see he is in charge, and not his agent - which I was afraid of. And, dont ever underestimate the power of a mom - as mine doesnt like the idea of me going to Chicago because I will be so far from her. And I am not going to be making $15M a year!!!

could the marlins stretch their payroll 15 million even with public money for the stadium? It seems not.

 

P.S. for the love of God don't get offended, it just seems like the marlins cannot expend that sort of salary and if the stadium deal falls through you're in more trouble.

could the marlins stretch their payroll 15 million even with public money for the stadium? It seems not.

link?

No link, I was under the impression their payroll had to be 65 million tops and that Guerrero being more than that compromises that goal.

 

that's why it seems not.

Loria has some "special money" he seems to pull out whenever the time is right and the player is of his choosing (SEE: Pudge).

If he's flexible and could pull out 15, then it is certainly possible.

 

Prediction: 5 years 75 million. If the marlins can do that then it could be done...unless baltimore offers 16 or up.

I think 5-75 is doable, though 6 for 85 could be worked towards I believe.

I think 5-75 is doable, though 6 for 85 could be worked towards I believe.

I think Vlad wants more per year and Baltimore can emulate such an offer.

Loria has some "special money" he seems to pull out whenever the time is right and the player is of his choosing (SEE: Pudge).

Pudge's money for 2003, better known as "Loria's special money" was only $4 million this year and two payments of $3 mil (deferred) in 2004 and 2005.

 

You can't keep piling deferred money on top of deferred money or you'll go broke.

 

BTW in regards to insurance on Vlad and his chronic back, first you have to find a companyy that will insure a pre-existing condition (not easy), and then the premium on $15 mil might be $6+million per. And that's prorated and so if Vlad were to go down in August, for example, you've already paid him $10-11 mil in salary AND $6+ million for the insurance and now the insurance kicks in and pays 80% of the remainder, so you still have another $1 mil out of pocket. So a $15 mil contract winds up costing you $17 mil that year. :banghead

 

Lastly, insurance companies want to write for a MAXimum of three years, not MINimum of three years. It's easy to see why the Fish don;t buy insurance on their players. They'd go broke paying the premiums.

If Jeffrey Loria was willing to spend $13 Million of special money on Roger Clemens, he'll spend $14 Million on his favorite player in Vladimir Guerrero.

 

That's just my theory.

If Jeffrey Loria was willing to spend $13 Million of special money on Roger Clemens, he'll spend $14 Million on his favorite player in Vladimir Guerrero.

 

That's just my theory.

Why haven't they offered him a contract yet? And why is the Herald and Palm Beach Post saying that front office people are denying going after Guerrero? Don't you think it would make goodwill with fans around Florida for them to admit that they are going after arguably the best player in baseball? I like to be optimistic, but I just don't see how this deal will get done.

Why would they tip their hand right away when it is common knowledge that the Orioles have the advantage in the pocket books? They need to use the other advantages they have, and time might be one of them. If they make the Orioles sit on their current offer for a while like they have been, and all the while keep talking to Vlad and throwing out numbers without offering an official contract, you don't give the Orioles any ammunition to fire at us with. Time, I believe, is on our side.

If Jeffrey Loria was willing to spend $13 Million of special money on Roger Clemens, he'll spend $14 Million on his favorite player in Vladimir Guerrero.

 

That's just my theory.

You have to consider that millions of that backloaded "special money" is now owed to Pudge.

 

(I don't mean this in a negative fashion - I'm on your side of the argument - but all the facts have to be thrown out on the table.)

If Jeffrey Loria was willing to spend $13 Million of special money on Roger Clemens, he'll spend $14 Million on his favorite player in Vladimir Guerrero.

 

That's just my theory.

You have to consider that millions of that backloaded "special money" is now owed to Pudge.

 

(I don't mean this in a negative fashion - I'm on your side of the argument - but all the facts have to be thrown out on the table.) Exactly. We had more money back then.

But it makes a little sense.

Why would they tip their hand right away when it is common knowledge that the Orioles have the advantage in the pocket books? They need to use the other advantages they have, and time might be one of them. If they make the Orioles sit on their current offer for a while like they have been, and all the while keep talking to Vlad and throwing out numbers without offering an official contract, you don't give the Orioles any ammunition to fire at us with. Time, I believe, is on our side.

What if Vlad accepts the O's offer before we even offer a contract?

Why would they tip their hand right away when it is common knowledge that the Orioles have the advantage in the pocket books? They need to use the other advantages they have, and time might be one of them. If they make the Orioles sit on their current offer for a while like they have been, and all the while keep talking to Vlad and throwing out numbers without offering an official contract, you don't give the Orioles any ammunition to fire at us with. Time, I believe, is on our side.

What if Vlad accepts the O's offer before we even offer a contract? than that would be very bad for us...