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Yankee Rotation Better Sabremetric Style?


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Lieber 3.2 (in 2001, I contend he's a better pitcher now)

1.9 in 2002.

I don't see why you didn't use that. Lieber didn't pitch a single inning after his injury, and over his entire career he pitched worse during the months he missed due to injury.


SNWAR doesn't factor in team defense, just averages out offense and bullpen support. Even with A-Rod and Lofton the Yankees will have a comparable defense (think Giambi-Johnson, Sheffield-Mondesi/Garcia, full year with Jeter at short), that is nothing close to what Lieber, Vazquez or Brown were afforded with their old clubs.

This is pointless though. Pitchers rarely are consistent year-to-year down to the decimal point. I'd call the whole thing a wash. If you need to stroke your Yankee pride just remember that Vazquez is younger than any of their starters. Or that Schilling or Pedro will only pitch 7 innings tops of any game.

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Position player's VORP:



Giambi 54.9

Travis Lee 20.2

Lofton 18.9

Miguel Cairo ?2.6

A Rod 86.3

Jeter 48.0

Posada 56.5

Williams 23.4

Matsui 22.5

Sheffield 78.9

Lee/Lofton average= 19.6

Team average=43.1


Red Sox

Kevin Millar 19.8

Poke Reese -5.0

Mueller 60.1

Garciaparra 58.3

Varitek 33.5

Damon 19.4

Manny 69.2

Ortiz 44.1

Nixon 43.4

Team average= 38.1

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Mussina 4.8

Brown 4.8

Vazquez 5.6

Lieber 3.2 (in 2001, I contend he's a better pitcher now)

Contreras 2.2


Team average SNWAR: 4.32


Kim .6

Wakefield 1.9

Martinez 7.5

Schilling 5.3

Lowe 2.0


Team average SNWAR: 3.46


So according to the stats, the red sox starting rotation is 20% worse.


I'm not sure if I believe in the concept of "support neutral" wins and losses. I've heard all the arguments, and I still don't believe that the score is a non-factor in pitchers winning and losing. SNWL is just as shaky a concept as DIPS.

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VORP? At the very least average it out per game. Although even then it's not the best of measurements.


And do I have to point out yet again that it's wrong to take the stat's one player had from one year in another role for another team? Not to mention neglecting to factor in playing half his games in this one ballpark and more games than others in other ballparks due to interleague play and the unbalanced schedule.


Don't try to make objective preseason predictions. No such thing exists. Over the course the season anything can happen. And usually does.

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Just so you guys know, I don't think these projections are the best...they're almost a corruption of baseball because they have too many flaws. I am merely presenting some sabremetrics numbers even I don't fully believe in.


In my honest opinion, through judging ERA+ and OPS+ in previous threads, I believe I have already proven my point. This is just for the fun of it and the counter arguments presented are good.

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