PositiveHype

Thank you for the edit. All I can say is that this shows that the art dealer and the lucky sperm cell do not have winning baseball games as a priority. Somehow they seem to have figured out a way to make more money with an unstable team that is the farming system for the big market teams rather than building a high-priced, stable team, with an identity, that has a stadium and competes for a championship most years. Why can't we get a guy that is about building quality products like Mark Cuban? He's begging to be a MLB owner.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=311337 David Pinto Money can buy hope for all baseball fans Posted: November 28, 2007 In November of 2000, Bud Selig told Congress, "an increasing number of our clubs have become unable to successfully compete for their respective Division Championships, thereby making postseason appearances -- let alone postseason success -- an impossibility. ... At the start of spring training, there no longer exists hope and faith for the fans of more than half of our 30 clubs." But that hope is back, and it starts with increased revenue. The economics of the sport have changed. Every team can win, and the Rockies proved it by reaching the World Series. This month Major League Baseball announced a record year for revenue. The teams pulled in almost $6.1 billion on everything from tickets to Internet sales. That's a take of $200 million for the average team. With money comes hope that was missing for many teams in 2000. Amid rapid revenue growth, teams got smarter about how to spend what money they had. Even small market teams found new ways to become competitive. Some teams used long-term contracts to lock up their stars and maximize the top end of their payrolls; others used terms of the 2002 collective bargaining agreement to sign younger players and develop talent at lower costs. Best of all, teams that could never hope of holding onto that home-grown talent once prospects turned into stars now find themselves with enough revenue to at least try to hang onto fan favorites. Let's take a look back at 2002 to find out how baseball reached a place where the Rockies and Diamondbacks became contenders and the Twins might actually have a hope of holding onto Johan Santana. The story starts with cost control. Revenues soared since the signing of the 2002 collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The players aren't getting the lion's share of the windfall, however: MLB revenue and salaries in billions of dollars Year Revenue Salaries % of revenue 2002 $3.4 $2.02 59.4% 2003 3.9 2.13 54.6 2004 4.3 2.07 48.1 2005 4.7 2.19 46.6 2006 5.2 2.33 44.8 2007 6.1 2.48 40.7 Revenue rose at an annual rate of $500 million a year from 2002 to 2006, while salaries averaged an $86 million increase. The teams controlled costs extremely well, finally learning how to use the CBA to their advantage. Long-term contracts play a major role in this cost control. Take a look at the lengths of contracts for the top 10 hitters in terms of on-base plus slugging (OPS) from 2002-2007: Contracts for top 10 hitters, OPS, 2002-2007 Player OPS Contract Barry Bonds 1.233 2002-2006 Albert Pujols 1.045 2004-2010 (under reserve previously) Manny Ramirez 1.005 2001-2008 Todd Helton 0.996 2003-2011 David Ortiz 0.991 2005-2006, 2007-2010 Jim Thome 0.986 2003-2008 Alex Rodriguez 0.986 2001-2007 Vladimir Guerrero 0.975 2004-2008 Lance Berkman 0.967 2002-2004, 2005-2010 Chipper Jones 0.956 2001-2008 (reworked extension in 2005) (min. 2,000 plate appearances) The best hitters in the game had little chance to take advantage of the rise in revenue through free agency. On the pitching side, five of the top 10 leaders in ERA from 2002-2007 -- Santana, Oswalt, Webb, Peavy and Zambrano -- signed extensions before they tested the market. Teams are doing two things right to control costs: Identifying good players. Signing them to long-term contracts. These long-term contracts also served to set a ceiling on salaries. While superstars' salaries remained constant, other players up for re-signing couldn't leapfrog over them. How many players can argue they are better than Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez or Johan Santana? Another trend dampening the rise in salaries comes from teams building rosters with less-experienced players. The structure of the CBA causes salaries to rise as years of service accumulate. For three years, teams can pay players close to the minimum. Then three years of arbitration boost salaries, and finally free agency takes them over the top. The more seasons played, the higher the salary. Actual service time isn't available in public databases, but we can approximate it by looking at the number of seasons played previously. By this measure, average service time decreased over the last two seasons: Average previous seasons played Season Avg. experience 2002 4.52 2003 4.68 2004 4.72 2005 4.77 2006 4.56 2007 4.43 The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Rays are all out of the business of trying to win with veteran free agents. They've each taken the tack of putting teams on the field that can grow together. With few years of major-league service, these players cost little. As they mature, however, they can turn into champions. Take a look at the average experience among the eight playoff teams from 2007: Average Previous Seasons Played, 2007 Playoff Teams Team Avg. Seasons Angels 4.0 Rockies 4.0 Diamondbacks 4.0 Indians 4.7 Cubs 4.7 Phillies 4.7 Yankees 5.3 Red Sox 6.0 Three teams fell to less-experienced opponents in the first round of the playoffs. And the 2007 playoffs won't be the end of success for these teams. The Rockies and Diamondbacks sit in an especially sweet spot. Winning teams attract fans and increase revenue. By keeping their costs low, these teams gain flexibility to add players that might put them over the top. Both teams now have the resources to take salary in a trade or opt for a free agent to fill a hole. With continued growth in MLB revenue, they can even keep their best players rather than let them go to free agency. That might be the best result of the increased money flow. Teams like Oakland and Minnesota are losing their reasons for sticking with the constant rebuilding strategy. The Twins, at the bottom of the revenue pyramid, saw their receipts go up $16 million from 2005 to '06 and likely will see a similar increase when the '07 numbers are calculated. One more jump like that, and the Twins can afford to keep Johan Santana, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. The potential exists for the Athletics to keep their next combination of Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada or Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. While constant rebuilding helps keep costs down, keeping a good core together provides advantages as well, as the Yankees and Braves can attest. The potential also exists for quick team turnarounds. A lack of cash no longer is a reason not to sign a free agent or trade for an expensive player. In the balanced National League, some team might increase spending to win. In 2007, the Cubs brought in a number of free agents that helped them to a division title. The Reds, which gave a huge contract (four years, $46 million) to closer Francisco Cordero, might be going the same route. American League teams might open their wallets to catch up to the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels. The Royals' signing of Gil Meche last year and their attempt to sign Torii Hunter recently show that small-market teams are now willing to go after big names. The sharp increase in MLB revenue coupled with a slower increase in salaries brings teams closer to the point where all can afford premium talent, not just the richest clubs. Baseball as a whole did an excellent job of containing costs related to player salaries since the signing of the 2002 CBA. That efficiency now provides the potential for more teams to compete for the best players. That will drive up salaries once again, but MLB positioned itself to absorb that increase. We should see more teams in contention, putting more fans in seats and fueling even more growth for the game. Writer's note: Thanks to Maury Brown at The Biz of Baseball for help with revenue numbers. The USA Today Salaries Databases provided the salary data. David Pinto writes and edits BaseballMusings.com and is a frequent contributor to Sporting News.

If Miguel Cabrera gets traded, with the messsage that ownership send in that move, is it even worth paying attention to the team until Loria and his mini-me stepson are gone? Trading Cabrera would be the worst personnel decision in team history. How do you trade a young franchise player who is among MLB's best offensive forces?

Why do we have to choose these guys mentioned in the article. I have a name that is free this offseason. How about Jose Molina? He's defensive minded and with our offense, we really don't have to go out of our way for a good hitting catcher. Personally, I think Molina is a good choice. Also, I would watch the situation with Brian Schneider with the Nats to see if he were somehow available.

Well this just gives the Marlins a chance to play Cody Ross and build his value while making a decision to use him as trade bait or making him one of our regulars and using someone else as bait.

Interesting thoughts. As for the ownership, I probably agree that Selig wouldn't force Loria to sell, but I think he did tell Loria that he had to fill in the financial gap for the stadium one way or the other. So, you never knows what can happen if he sees that the deal an get done, but is being held back by the Marlins ownership refusing to fill the gap for whatever reason. You also have to consider the personality of Mark Cuban. It's just a matter of time before he does snatch out a MLB franchise from someone. I really doubt that if Selid saw that someone like Mark Cuban can get the deal done, that he would rather let the franchise fade out because Cuban is the type to make it a major public relations nightmare for MLB. Look at how he takes on the likes of David Stern and he's much more of a challenge than Selig. As for the player transactions; I didn't site Hanley or some of the other guys because they are younger than Uggla and I'd like to see them at least 1 more season at their current positions before I look at moving any of them. Also, I mention Uggla because he has always been known as a defensively weak player back to his days in the D-Backs system and before. Willingham I know is kind of on the same level of having defensive struggles, but he is again one of the more effective bats in the line up and he is playing a position that, due to his limited experience in LF, I'd like to see him there for another season before I make a decision. The fact is that you can't change an entire roster in 1 offseason. You have to look at your biggest needs and go from there. I think that the type of player that Uggla is can easily be replaced by what we have. This season he has been a .250 hitter with power who doesn't field well---we can replace that. Also, I'm one of the believers of you build your defense up the middle. In my post, I did propose a change at 3 of the 4 positions up the middle. In baseball terms, that a drastic change, especially when 1 of those positions is catcher. The last time the Marlins mae a change at morethan 1 of the middle defensive positions was in the 2002 offseason when they let go of Charles Johnson and Preston Wilson (who were both offesnively like Uggla) and returned with Juan Pierre and Ivan Rodriguez who had less strikeouts, higher batting Avg., and more SBs and all we really sacrificed was a weaker arm in CF. Sometimes the combination of players on your roster doesn't get wins even though when you look at the talent individually, they are all strong players. Just my thoughts.

Can we have a serious discussion, without flame wars and personal attacks on what direction you think this franchise is going, and where they will be 1 year from now, and what shape we'll be in regards to a stadium deal ? Here's my thought and I'm probably repeating what others have said because I just jumped on after I don't remember how long because I didn't see anything previously that made me want to respond after this disaster this season and I didn't read the other posts. What I post here is what I've felt for a long time. The Marlins need to do this both short term and long term. To start, Bud Selig needs to look at the reality of what's going on here with ownership after ownership. Loria can be OK, but his mini-me stepson is a problem (understatement). Mark Cuban wants to ba a MLB owner. Since MLB seems to not be comfortable with him owning one of its historical teams, than why not let him own one of its recent teams that, at this point, has nothing to lose. The Marlins need an owner with the "Just get the job done" mentality for both the stadium situation and the roster transactions. The ownerships that we have had are more appropriate to run fast-food restaurants, not professional sports teams. Short-changing your product doesn't work in sports. Next, you need to get to the stadium situation (obviously). Get it done period...no more excuses and no more short-changing. Almost every business owner puts in the money to get started and acceots losses with the knowledge that he will make money in the long run. If all this roster/salary dumping was going on with a new stadium on the horizon I wouldn't have much of a problem with it, but we're dumping salary all the time and keep seeing the same ownership not want to fill in the financial gaps to finalize the stadium deal. Take a note from Mickey Arison...YOU HAVE TO SPEND MONEY TO MAKE MONEY YOU MORONS!!! The Heat are the most entertaining sports team in South Florida right now because THEIR OWNER HAS A CLUE HOW TO RUN A BUSINESS. Even Wayne Huizenga is starting to figure it out with his tranformation of Dolphins Stadium and hopes to build the Dolphins into a winner like he did in 1997 with the Marlins. Mr. Loria, stop listening to the 40+ year old preschooler that you call a stepson. What has he done with his life, beside being a lucky sperm cell, that makes him knowledgable about running a business? MR. LORIA, AND MINI-ME SAMSON, IF YOU CAN'T PAY THE BILL, JUST LEAVE!!! Let someone else that can and will pay the bill take over. Let me use a business term; IF YOU CAN'T MEET THE BOTTOM LINE AND GET A DEAL DONE, YOU SHOULD BE FIRED AS THE OWNER OF THE MARLINS AND BUD SELIG NEEDS TO GROW SOME BALLS AND ASK YOU TO LEAVE. Finally, we have the roster/staff stuff. The absolutely first thing that the Marlins need to do is obviously get a defensive minded catcher. We have enough hitting to live with a light-hitting catcher that demands respect on the defensive end. At this time, we need a veteran and we will need to get a younger option for the future. This is one of the few times in the team's history that the Marlins have been without a quality catcher. We need to get back to that. Also, to help out with the team defense with the rest of our young players, I would seriously look to trying another option at 2B & look at bringing in a veteran for CF until De Aza or someone else can take over. Finally, we need to get 1 veteran SP (bring back Kim?) and look at a veteran lefty RP. I truly feel that with another pitching coach and new catcher, we will be ok with our pitching. As far as transaction possibilities; we definitely have trade bait in Cody Ross and either Mike Jacobs or Dan Uggla for very good additions. You can look at a balanced trade that involves Cody Ross and maybe bringing in a veteran catcher like Benji Molina or, if the Nats and Marlins are willing to deal within the division, Brian Schneider. Also, Ramon Castro is a free agent that would be looking to be a starting catcher. There are other catching options. I would look to get a 2B that is more defensively-sound than Uggla with more batting avg and SB ability. I would consider 2 options; 1) trading Uggla for someone of equal value with those skills, which obviously means someone with less power, but more in tune to be a top of the order hitter or 2) move Uggla to 3B and Miggy 1B, then trade Jacobs for that type of 2B. I prefer option 1 because Jacobs seems more competent as protection for Cabrera and Willingham than Uggla. You can then bring in a veteran CF like maybe a Kenny Lofton type. Also, make Miggy lose that weight. After you make your needed roster moves, make sure that you keep a short leash on Fredi Gonzalez losing games. Start looking now at possible early season replacements, such as bringing Joe Girardi back (permanently). This is what you can have for next year which would look good for many years: SS-Hanley 2B-Young Brian Roberts type RF-Hermida 3B-Cabrera LF-Willingham 1B-Jacobs CF-Kenny Lofton type C-Benjie Molina, Brian Schneider, Ramon Castro type P Just my thoughts.

well, with all this comparison, hopefully I can end it here. Is there anyone that is a Marlins fan (not a Mets fan) that would trade Nolasco straight up for Heilman? Or, since the notion is that Heilman is worth more, would anyone trade Nolasco and another player or 2 for Heilman? I definitely wouldn't. :blink:

I'm still confused about some of this concept. Can someone explain to me about when did a setup/middle reliever who has only 1 day of glory as a starter become more valuable as far as worth than a starting pitcher who won 10 games in his rookie year. If he was a closer I could see it, but Heilman is a setup/middle reliever. Has the game disintergrated all of the sudden to this. Back to the story at hand: Alex Rios with the Marlins would be great. Picture this: Hanley Alex Rios Uggla Miggy Willy Jacobs Hermida Olivo/or whoever we pick up :thumbup

If the person that wrote the article thinks the Mets have a match Heilman, why doesn't he think that the Marlins would be able to pull it off with Nolasco? Am I wrong in thinking that Nolasco has more value than the overhyped Heilman? Or was that just another NY favoring article? What's next? Is Alex Rios going to be traded straight up for the legendary Lastings Millege?

NY papers having all the "scoops" on guys going to be traded to the Mets? That is shocking news. Maybe we are misinterpreting what they mean by scopps. Maybe they mean poop scooping. As far as the comment that the Mets don't have enough to trade for Willis. That's not entirely accurate. They have a 3B named Wright that if packaged right would be ok in exchange for Willis. Cabrera could move to 1B and Jacobs sent somewhere for a CF or relief help. Oh, I forgot, the NY media have him labeled as the "best 3B in the game" ahead of the likes of Cabrera, Rolen, Eric Chavez, A-Rod, etc. So maybe the Mets wouldn't want Willis for him. At this point, I say what we all should do is just read the NY papers as good examples of fictional fantasy writing and nothing more. If Willis were to be traded to NY, I think that it would be more like to the Yanks because Beinfest could ask for Wang and maybe Melky Cabrera in return. Otherwise, he stays here or goes to another AL team. The Marlins don't have to break up the roster to fill needs. All they need is relief help and a solid CF. I think considering Beinfest's track record, he can easily fill those needs without making a blockbuster trade.

That makes no sense. Why take a guy with some decent mobility and range, and stick him at 1st base? Besides, I want someone taller at 1st. I agree, but I did state it was fantasy. It would be just as absurd to move Ramirez to CF with really no experience. This whole thing is absurd and would never happen. It just buys into the NY media way of thinking.

I think that the NY media is just giving the NY morons something to hope for in this whole thing, but I'll bite just for the sake of having a Marlins conversation in the land of fantasy. The fantasy: First, I wouldn't move Cabrera from 3B, but I would put ARod at SS. I however wouldn't move Hanley to CF. How about moving him to 2B and consider moving Uggla to 1B. Then, you trade Jacobs for a CF, preferably in the AL so he cannot come back to burn us in the near future. Maybe a trade to a team like Tampa Bay for Crawford or Baldelli? This is how the lineup could look: CF Crawford 2B Ramirez 3B Cabrera SS ARod 1B Uggla LF Willingham RF Hermida C Olivo ***Of note, I would only make the trade if the Yanks pay for 2/3rds of the remaining contract. He wouldn't be worth it if it prevents us from doing other roster changes designed to make the fish better. The reality: This trade isn't going to happen. However, if I were in Beinfest's position, I would take a look to see how desperate the are to part themselves of ARod. I definitely won't give up Willis or any of the key pieces to this team, but would take a look at the surplus of MLB ready prospects that the Yanks would take like Vargas or Petit. With that, I would only do the trade as I mentioned above; ONLY if the Yanks pick up 2/3rds of the contract. If Steinbrenner is desperate enough to rid himself of ARod, these would be my terms. The only way that I give up Willis is if they give up Wang as part as a major trade package and we include maybe a Jacobs or other part for them that doesn't hurt us. Remember, with an owner like Steinbrenner, you never know. Also, you want to always know your advantage in the world of trading. ARod may be had for a cheap price because he isn't as valuable as he was before and it was hard to trade him then. So, imgaine the difficulty now.

Interesting. I looked at mine. Overall, what actually has happened has been distributed differently with all of the surprises, but I'm one of the people that did hit on the win total. Some individual cases I did hit the numbers as well like Borowski, Jacobs, along with Cabrera's power totals. It seemed that other guys that exceeded what I guessed were picking up for guys that didn't reach my expectations (i.e. Willingham, Uggla, & Ramirez for Hermida, Reed, Aguila or J. Johnson, S. Olsen, Sanchez, Nolasco for Willis, Mitre, & Vargas). Great year!!! No complaints here.

Is there a way that the predictions that everyone made before the start of the season be posted again or everyone given access to see them? Does anyone know of a way?