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Another lineup thread


rferry
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Not that it matters because the old man has stuck with the old tired lineup whether it was producing or not. And when he had the guts to shake things up, it was back to the same sh*t within 24 hours win or loss.

 

 

Pierre

Cabrera

LoDuca

Lowell

Castillo

Conine

Gonzalez

Encarnacion

Pitcher

 

Similar to the Choi 2nd theory (1-0 when used) this gives us a high OBP guy high in the order followed by our next best hitters. Cabrera has hit into a ton of double plays this year and more groundballs than most sluggers, maybe with Pierre (or Castillo) ahead of him it would it would reduce the amount of outs he hits into. Granted this leaves the middle of the order weak, which is why we'll need some production from the bottom of the lineup. Counting on that from Enc and Alex is asking a lot, but with one our speedy leadoff guys ahead of them they'll have a good chance of adding in some runs. Rarely does the bottom of the order drive in runs without a long homer. With Castillo on the basepaths it would just take Enc and Alex getting the ball into play. OK, that's still asking A LOT. But it must be better than two slap hitters getting on base 36% of the time to start off your offense.

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Gotta keep Pierre and Castillo at the top...enough of the gimmick crap. Only move(s) that can be made is flip-flopping Lowell and Cabrera or Encarnacion and Gonzalez.

 

Personally, I'd give Cabrera a chance to bat fourth with Lowell fifth, because Lowell and Cabrera flourished in that role during the post-season when Pudge was the 3-hole guy.

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PHILADELPHIA - A researcher in Pennsylvania says professional baseball teams might improve their chances of making the playoffs by hiring a team mathematician to work alongside the batting coach.

 

"Mighty Casey should have hit 2nd instead of 4th in a baseball lineup"

 

Bruce Bukiet, a mathematician with the New Jersey Institute of Technology, says re-jigging baseball's lineup could result in 10 more wins a season for a mathematically enlighted team. Bukiet told CBC Radio's As It Happens Tuesday he studied the 360,000 possible ways a nine-player lineup can be arranged and concluded the best batter should bat second instead of fourth, the customary spot for the "cleanup hitter."

 

Bukiet says the two best hitters in the lineup should bat second and third, essentially because they would get to the plate more often in a game, and much more often during the 162-game schedule – probably more than 100 extra at-bats a season. He also says the weakest hitter – almost always the pitcher – should not hit last in the order. Instead, the weakest hitter should hit seventh or eighth, so as to be distanced from the best hitters(hitting second and third in Bukiet's re-jigged lineup).

 

Bukiet reported his findings last week to the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics in Philadelphia. He studied statistics for the National League for the 1989 season, choosing the NL because it does not use a designated hitter to hit for the pitcher. He defines "best hitter" as the best power hitter, not necessarily the best high-average hitter. Bukiet places more value on power hitters than high-average hitters.

 

"...if the (Seattle) Mariners were to trade Ichiro Suzuki to the (Chicago) Cubs for Sammy Sosa," Bukiet told As It Happens, "the Cubs would win six and a half fewer games, whereas the Mariners would win six or seven more games."

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Bill James has studied other lineups and discovered that no matter what order you put them in the average difference will be 50 runs over the course of a season.

To me though with 81 games in Pro Player Stadium ~50 runs could mean the difference in a lot of ball games.

With young batters who need support and a weak bench the Marlins' lineup would be interesting to study.

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