Two point lead for Bush with Nadar in the race but the undecided vote is still very much out there and once again it comes down to the debate.

 

The republicans ripped Kerry for only having a three point lead or so after his conventions saying he was uneffective. So are you going to say that your canidate was uneffective?

 

c/o Zogby

This shows what seems obvious, that the race is tied. I just couldnt understand all the "Kerry is getting crushed stuff." Yeah there was a swing to Bush but that was to be expected. Its not as though Bush is up by high amounts. The media misrepresented this one IMO.

 

rune I wanted to ask you what you think of all the polls and which one you trust the most? I read a nasty article about Zogby recently but he seems to be well respected.

This shows what seems obvious, that the race is tied. I just couldnt understand all the "Kerry is getting crushed stuff." Yeah there was a swing to Bush but that was to be expected. Its not as though Bush is up by high amounts. The media misrepresented this one IMO.

 

rune I wanted to ask you what you think of all the polls and which one you trust the most? I read a nasty article about Zogby recently but he seems to be well respected.

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I usually trust The NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll the foremost with Zogby in second.

its just a lot more misrepresentation of the facts.

 

 

 

 

the kerry/bush showdown is going down to the wire, unless something unexpected happens.

 

 

 

anyone who thinks otherwise is simply stupid.

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/ar...,692562,00.html

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After this poll their has been three Convention Polls

 

American Research Group has Bush by 1, Zogby by two and...

 

Time with that :plain , The time poll was taken before Bush's speech and the start of the democratic ad onslaught that has begun.

 

Come on Time's just seems the least bit questionable Judy Woodruff was heard off camera talking about how unaccurate this poll seems to be.

but it does show bush up by 11 points so it proves his point. :plain

 

 

 

nevermind that every respectable poll out there has the race within 5 points.

So Bush got a bounce according to Time. That doesnt prove he will truely sustain it. Kerry was up 7 in numerous polls after the dem convention.

hmmm,...VOTE BADNARIK

 

if i say it enough, it might work

What more can be thrown at Bush to damage him though? All the current attacks are well ploughed ground that already had whatever effect they're going to have.

 

.

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Here's the problem, Bush himself now wants to transform the election about Domestic Policy which as both JC Watts and Scarborough fessed up, makes any republican in office shake.

 

James Carville made himself a millionare telling people to look at the obvious that the economy does matter and the job rates yesterday and where they hit specifically does not bode well if you're running a domestic campaign for The President.

Kerry will intensify the ad campaign that he has suspended for the last month to negate the Bush advantage.

 

Here is one thing that if happens, will uterlly crush Bush. The death toll in Iraq reaching the symbolic 1000. (please note before the dem bashing ensues that we dont want that to happen for political advantages.)

Interesting to also note that Carter got a 10 point bounce in 1980. Like you said Rune, I think Kerry now focuses the next two months of making this a referendum on Bush again. He has established John Kerry to America. Now he has to do what Regean did to Carter.

I just don't see how Kerry could win. He seems weak and is not a great communicator to come back from behind. Regan vs Carter was a complete different ballgame

Rasmussen for Today has Bush up by 1 showing The Bounce beginning to wear off and returning to the normal virtual dead heat.

Kerry is no ronald Reagan, thats not debatable. The race will be very close, but if you think Kerry is going to run away with it your sadly mistaken. In fact Bush's campaign going into domestic policy is brilliant, because thats how you get the independant voters on your side. You guys arent understanding that at this point in an election the two most important things are voter turnout and swaying the independant. Bush after his rNC speech now needs to stick to war on terror, america first issues. Kerry needs to keep hammering the domestic policy and shut up about Iraq, 'i'm not bush', the war on terror is being lost, and so forth.

Im not saying Kerry is Reagen. Simply that post convention bounces should be looked at with a grain of salt.

i've worked with zogby and i respect them a lot.

Zogby is a strange one. He is either heavily respected both people on both sides of the partisan debate or he is despised. Here is an interesting blurb about him:

 

I have gotten e-mail from some people who don't trust Zogby, either because he uses a new technology (normalized Internet polling) or because they don't like his results or because he is personally a Democrat. The technology is indeed new, but telephone polling wasn't trusted when it first came out (sometimes with justification as in the 1936 Literary Digest poll), but it eventually became the norm. Like all pollsters, Zogby normalizes his results to make sure he has correctly weighted for first-time male voters, single white women 25-35, African-American grandmothers, etc. It was for precisely this failure to correct the raw data that Rasmussen chastised Time and Newsweek Monday.

 

In 2000, Zogby was the most accurate pollster and the only one to predict Gore would win the popular vote. But the thing that makes me most confident of Zogby is that he is the Wall St Journal's house pollster. The WSJ is not some wacko leftist organization whose goal is to make Kerry look good. They are paying good money for Zogby's services (traditional polls cost around $15,000 per state but obviously the WSJ buys so many polls that they get a very large discount) and are staking their reputation as a newspaper on his results. To me, having a conservative Republican newspaper like the WSJ choose Zogby over all his competitors speaks volumes about his accuracy and professionalism.

Im not saying Kerry is Reagen. Simply that post convention bounces should be looked at with a grain of salt.

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The post convention bounces are very important . Obivously it does not mean that the election has already been decided. But watching the polls late in the election cycle is a good indicator of who will most likely win. If one of the teo candidates has a 10 point lead in october it will be unlikely that this candidate will lose the election