The Marlins have 14 players under contract for 2005 at total of $34 million. That's including Lenny Harris and players not yet eligible for arbitration such as Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Add in payments for Pudge and Hampton and we're at $45 million before even re-signing arbitration-eligible players and adding free agents. And just to save everyone's time let's assume we re-sign LoDuca, Beckett, Burnett and Mota. That's an additional ~$15 million, putting us close to the 2004 budget of $60M. It's a safe bet that payroll will increase this year, but with the stadium deal still not secure and the lost revenue from the hurricanes, it's most likely just going to be another $5 million.

 

Can we improve this team and make another playoff push with ~$6 million to spend on a big bat, solid starter, relief pitching and bench? It could be done, but only if we skimp on the bench and bullpen again.

 

C-LoDuca

1B-Conine

2B-Castillo

3B-Lowell

SS-Gonzalez

LF-Cabrera

CF-Pierre

RF-Encarnacion

UT-Easley, OF-Aguila, PH-Harris, C-???, BN-???, BN-???

 

SP-Burnett

SP-Beckett

SP-???

SP-Willis

SP-???

CL-Mota

RP-Spooneybarger, RP-Bump, RP-???, RP-???, RP-???

 

 

Edit: You're right, Gator. The 2004 budget was set at $60M, not 65. Don't know why that slipped my mind. $11M seemed much higher than my projections two weeks ago. That makes it much harder for the Marlins. Without moving some salary the Marlins will be a worse team with a substandard offense, bullpen and bench.

no wonder poor loria had to raise the ticket prices

BTW, at $70MM the Marlins will have one of the 15th largest payrolls (Although it will be reported as $59MM and rank close to 20th).

Encarnacion has to be moved out to have the money to bring in a LH power bat. That would make the lineup fine, no gaping hole like we had at C for months last year.

 

The team can likely retain Valdez on the cheap and will probably trade for another starting pitcher.

 

The team will not keep Benitez unless nobody will give him $7 mil anywhere. The team may get Urbina back now that Detroit signed Percival, otherwise expect Mota to close and for us to get a set-up man.

 

If the legislature approves the stadium tax credit with the early session, we may spend a bit more.

I don't know if there's one affordable (under $7M) lefty bat out there that could improve the offense much. It might be best to invest in pitching again, and find cheap platoon mates for Conine and Encarnacion/Aguila/???. But will McKeon do that? He gave reserves a lot of playing time this year, but generally likes to keep with his guys.

I really dont think that McKeon gave enough playing time for the reserves

...putting us close to the 2003's total salary of $60M (2004's was $65M). It's a safe bet that payroll will increase this year, but with the stadium deal still not secure and the lost revenue from the hurricanes, it's most likely just going to be another $5 million.622090[/snapback]

 

Where are you getting these numbers? I had the 2004 payroll at around $53 million at the start of the season, including Hampton and Rodriguez. The Dodgers trade was payroll neutral and the Koch move only cost us a few hundred thousand.

 

I'd be surprised to see the 2005 budget over $60 million.

I really dont think that McKeon gave enough playing time for the reserves

622391[/snapback]

The first half it seemed like McKeon was starting a reserve 4 nights of the week. Real change from the second half of 2003 or 2004 when he rarely gave the guys a day off.

 

P.S. Edited. Thanks 83Gator.

P.S. Edited. Thanks 83Gator.

622451[/snapback]

 

You're still off by $7 million. Go to this link, the USA Today salary database ... Link

 

That comes to about $42 million in salaries and it's probably high because of the way they prorate Luis' bonus. Add in the $11 million for Hampton and Pudge and it's $53 million. They spent a little more during the season as guys got hurt and players were called up, but it wasn't more than $1 or $2 million.

 

$60 million is a $7 million bump in payroll from 2004; we'll be lucky if it goes that high. Unless the stadium deal comes in, or Loria decides to do something special like he did with Pudge, I don't see the payroll going up to $65 million.

 

Who are the 14 guys signed for 2005 and how do they make up $34 million? I haven't done the math on that but it sounds about right, maybe about $5 million or so high. Your $15 million for LoDuca, et. al. sounds about right too. That's $49 million. Add in Hampton and Pudge (I think it's less than $11 million in 2005) and we're pushing $60 million and we still need to add 7 players. Something doesn't add up.

Exactly. That's why I said the 2004 budget, or meant to say. We can debate all day what the actual 2004 payrolls was, if Loria is cheap, why he and other Marlins owners might be and so on, but it gives little insight to what the 2005 payroll might be. Last year it was reported that the operating budget for player salaries was $48M (+12=60), an approximiate $5 increase from 2003. That's why I suggest the 2005 budget will likely be $65M. It could just as easily be less than that considering the lost gate revenue from 5 home games or other reasons.

 

Conine (4.75), Castillo (5.33), Gonzalez (3.4), Lowell (8.5), Pierre (3.4,+.1 signing bonus,+incentives), Encarnacion (4.5), Cabrera (.6), Easley (.75), Aguila (.4), Harris (.4), Willis (.5), Bump (.4), Spooneybarger (.4), FCastillo (.3). Most come from this site. Take out Castillo, who was not added to the list above, and that makes it 13 people for 33M before adding Pierre's bonuses which added 600K to his 2004 contract.

Also it should be noted that my figures for LoDuca (6), Beckett (3), Mota (2) and Burnett (4) are on the low-end. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Burnett and Beckett earn a combined $9M next year.

Exactly. That's why I said the 2004 budget, or meant to say. We can debate all day what the actual 2004 payrolls was, if Loria is cheap, why he and other Marlins owners might be and so on, but it gives little insight to what the 2005 payroll might be. Last year it was reported that the operating budget for player salaries was $48M (+12=60), an approximiate $5 increase from 2003. That's why I suggest the 2005 budget will likely be $65M. It could just as easily be less than that considering the lost gate revenue from 5 home games or other reasons.

 

Conine (4.75), Castillo (5.33), Gonzalez (3.4), Lowell (8.5), Pierre (3.4,+.1 signing bonus,+incentives), Encarnacion (4.5), Cabrera (.6), Easley (.75), Aguila (.4), Harris (.4), Willis (.5), Bump (.4), Spooneybarger (.4), FCastillo (.3). Most come from this site. Take out Castillo, who was not added to the list above, and that makes it 13 people for 33M before adding Pierre's bonuses which added 600K to his 2004 contract.

622466[/snapback]

Some of those numbers are too high. Conine is more like $3 million, Luis Castillo around $4.5 million, Lowell at $7.5 million. Even Cabrera is probably too high, though if we're smart we'll lock him up on a long-term deal. I'm surprised Frank Castillo is on that list - I thought he signed a minor league deal.

 

The Conine and Castillo numbers are the two most common mistakes you'll see out there on amateur sites, or even real ones in the case of USA Today with Castillo. When Conine came here, he was due to make $4.75 million or so in 2004. He redid his deal to be $3 million in 2004 and $3 million in 2005. He gets more guaranteed money but it's spread out over two years. Castillo's bonus is deferred, just like Pudge's salary was deferred. If we're not prorating Pudge's salary why would we prorate Castillo's bonus? His entire bonus should show on the books the year it's paid, which will probably be 2006 after Hampton and Pudge come off the books. This ain't the NFL.

 

The budget was reported to be $60 million by the same guy who reported that Mike Lowell was being traded to the Red Sox. He has no more insight into the Marlins front office than you or me. I can't believe Admin Beinfest left $7 million of unspent money on the table at the start of last season, especially since the trades that were made during the season were payroll neutral. $60 million at the beginning of 2004 might have meant that we'd now be the two-time defending champs - maybe we'd have kept Lee. Or Redman (a big improvement over Oliver until AJ was back and then it would've been easier to trade Penny sooner). Maybe we'd have done something about the bullpen.

 

There really isn't much debate on how much the Marlins spent last season - it was around $53 million at the start of the season. To me, that's a lot clearer indicator on what the budget was than what Mike Berardino puts in his column.

 

Also, I never said Loria was cheap (I never said he wasn't either). I don't really feel like debating you on anything. Just pointing out that your numbers are off.

I didn't say that you did call him cheap, I'd just rather not the thread degrade into that crap.

 

Argue over the numbers if you like, overall the 2005's off maybe 1-2 million. 2004's are off $5 million, a figure that could have been made up by acquiring an Urbina and Conine, but instead traded for three players who will earn substantial raises this winter. The point that we're going to have to say goodbye to someone's bad contract if we intend to improve the club and remain within budget, whatever that budget may be, still stands.

Argue over the numbers if you like, overall the 2005's off maybe 1-2 million. 2004's are off $5 million, a figure that could have been made up by acquiring an Urbina and Conine, but instead traded for three players who will earn substantial raises this winter. The point that we're going to have to say goodbye to someone's bad contract if we intend to improve the club and remain within budget, whatever that budget may be, still stands.

622478[/snapback]

I agree with your point but you should do a better job on your numbers, especially if you want to bill yourself as a numbers guy as much as you seem to like to. You were talking about a $70 million budget at one point there. That's just fantasy.

Bump is not worth 400K.

We could have had Seanez for 550k but the Marlins, naturally low balled him with 400k. He might be up there in age compared to other guys but he was solid when he came over here. I really fear our middle relief will be another repeat of the beginning of last year.

Seanez was no better than Manzanillo, Bump, Wayne or anyone else in the bullpen last year. He seemed to let every inherited runner score.

 

And, no, Bump is not worth $400K. Nor were Lenny Harris, Mike Mordecai, Ice Williams or Michael Tejera this past season. But this front office has a shown a tendency to overpay replacement-level players.