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The MB.com Hurricane Tracking Thread, 2005 Edition


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National Hurricane Center Link

Saffir Simpson Scale

 

Here's an IR pic of the Atlantic:

 

 

 

000

NOUS42 KNHC 201500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT FRI 20 MAY 2005

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

? ? ? ?? VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z MAY 2005

? ? ? ?? TCPOD NUMBER.....05-003

 

I.? ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

? ? 1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN

? ? ?? FLIGHT ONE

? ? ?? A. 21/2000Z

? ? ?? B. AFXXX 0201E ADRIAN

? ? ?? C. 21/1630Z

? ? ?? D. 19.0N? 81.0W

? ? ?? E. 21/1900Z TO 22/0000Z

? ? ?? F. SFC TO 10,000FT

 

? ? 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

? ? 3. NOTE: THE INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 21/1200Z WAS

? ? ?? CANCELLED BY NHC AT 20/1400Z

 

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

? ? 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

? ? 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.......NEGATIVE

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? WVW

 

Names:

 

2005

Arlene

Bret

Cindy

Dennis

Emily

Franklin

Gert

Harvey

Irene

Jose

Katrina

Lee

Maria

Nate

Ophelia

Philippe

Rita

Stan

Tammy

Vince

Wilma

 

2005 Hurricane Outlook

 

SUMMARY

NOAA?s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA?s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

 

The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The likely range of ACE index is 120%-190% of the median. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.

 

The predicted 2005 activity reflects 1) an expected continuation of conditions associated with the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) an expected continuation of warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone. The outlook also reflects the expectation of ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Ni?o or La Ni?a) during August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August.

 

Whole Report Link

 

 

I hope everyone's got their tracking maps and pencils ready.

 

 

 

:mischief

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