Why is it that apparently runners try to steal on counts when they expect a strike?? Announcers often mention how 2-1 is a good count to run on since the pitcher will probably throw a strike, but that makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

For one, if it's a strike it's a lot easier for the catcher to quickly catch the ball and get in position to make a good throw.

 

Also, there is more of a chance that the pitcher will throw a fastball.

 

If you run when the pitcher is ahead, you seemingly have a much bigger advantage. The pitcher is more likely to use an offspeed pitch, and also more likely to go outside of the strike zone. Wouldn't it be much harder to throw a runner out if the pitcher throws a low curveball than if he threw a fastball down the middle??

 

The only advantage to running on counts where you expect a strike would be that the hitter can bail you out if you don't get a good jump. If you are actually trying to steal the base though, as opposed to a hit and run, it seems like a ball count would be a much better situation.

Why is it that apparently runners try to steal on counts when they expect a strike?? Announcers often mention how 2-1 is a good count to run on since the pitcher will probably throw a strike, but that makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

For one, if it's a strike it's a lot easier for the catcher to quickly catch the ball and get in position to make a good throw.

 

Also, there is more of a chance that the pitcher will throw a fastball.

 

If you run when the pitcher is ahead, you seemingly have a much bigger advantage. The pitcher is more likely to use an offspeed pitch, and also more likely to go outside of the strike zone. Wouldn't it be much harder to throw a runner out if the pitcher throws a low curveball than if he threw a fastball down the middle??

 

The only advantage to running on counts where you expect a strike would be that the hitter can bail you out if you don't get a good jump. If you are actually trying to steal the base though, as opposed to a hit and run, it seems like a ball count would be a much better situation.

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i think you answered your own question. 1-1, 2-1, 3-1 you are more likely to see hit and runs because u expect the pitcher to give you a good pitch to hit, runners also go on these counts because if the pitcher is behind the count i.e. 2-1, he's going to be more focused on the batter, thus allowing the runner to get a bigger jump

I understand the logic for a hit and run on those counts, but if I was gonna attempt a straight steal it would be on 1-2, 0-2, or 2-2.

 

I didn't even think about the pitcher being more focused on the batter angle, but even with that considered I still like my chances better on counts where you expect a ball. If your motive is to steal the base, and not to hit and run, I think your chances are much better on the counts where you expect a ball.

You don't too many straight steals in the majors. Most managers like to hold back later in the count.

Like rferry already mentioned, the straight steal is a lost art among all but a handful of players anymore.

 

Also, while I agree that counts where one does not expect a strike are probably better, you have to already throw away any count with two strikes with less than two outs because you steal less with the chance of a DP putting a significant damper on your inning. You also throw out 0-1 counts, because anything can come on those pitches. That leaves 0-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, and 3-2 (I don't count as 'two strikes' because there is equal chance of a ball) to run on. 0-0 doesn't happen because you don't know what the pitcher is coming with, 3-1 often doesn't happen because the batter doesn't have the green light if the count was 3-0 before the automatic. That leaves 2-1 and 3-2, the two counts you see runners run on most often. Not saying that's what I'd do, but that's how it's done often.

 

Also another reason you see it when a strike is expected is because some runners (example, our very own Miguel Cabrera) get overzealous when they see a runner on the move and will either swing at it no matter what or let it pass no matter what (depends on the hitter). Since more of the former exist, it minimizes the risk of the 2-6 double play and could even turn into something nice if the batter happens to drop it on the floor somewhere in the outfield.

running on 3-2 cant be considered a straight steal, thats more of a run and hit. Which leaves only 2-1. This count increases the chance of a strike coming in which means no pitch-out.