Florida Marlins: Looking at the VORP for Rookie Pitchers report, we can see that Zach Duke, Gustavo Chacin, Scott Kazmir, and Joe Blanton are making their mark in 2005. Among this good crop of rookies is one who came along just recently: Jason Vargas of the Florida Marlins.

Vargas was called up on July 14. This date was convenient for two reasons; one, it was the Southern League?s All-Star break, and two, it afforded the Marlins the freedom of discarding Al Leiter. The big club is Vargas? fourth stop this season, a trek that has seen him streak from low A to the Majors, skipping only Triple-A Albuquerque on the way. Vargas, the 68th pick in the 2004 draft, became just the 5th member of his draft class to reach the majors, ascending after only Justin Verlander (pick #2), J.P. Howell (#31), Huston Street (#40), and Jeff Fiorentino (#79). This is itself a major achievement. It was mentioned in the 2005 player comments for Taylor Tankersley that the Marlins have had success pushing players quickly through the minors. When Tankersley, whom the Fish drafted ahead of Vargas in ?04, had to sit out the first two months of the season with shoulder tendonitis, the Marlins instead pushed Vargas, which was a bit surprising. Though he was rated highly by Baseball America, clocking in as Florida?s 8th best prospect, BA?s write up forecasted his ceiling for 2005 to be high Class A. And though BP ran a PECOTA forecast for him, he did not warrant a mention in the 2005 annual, joining Rob Tejeda as the only top 15 rookie pitchers who did not make the book.

 

Vargas made it to the majors on the strength of his strikeout rate, as he whiffed 118 batters in 107 1/3 minor-league IP for a K/9 of 9.90. This is a trend he has continued in Miami, fanning 33 in 37 IP. He has already surpassed his 75th percentile projection, became the first NL rookie to record a complete game in 2005, and both his manager and owner have taken a shine to him. However, there are two reasons to question whether Vargas can be an effective producer down the stretch. Vargas? BABIP stands at a very low .238, which is 42 points lower than Josh Beckett who has the next lowest BABIP among Marlins starters. Vargas is also carrying a very high walk rate around in his duffel bag. This was an issue for Vargas in the minors, but has been even worse since his promotion. Though his time in the majors has been brief and he could certainly develop better control, he has done nothing to disprove the theory that he is a bit wild. This has not cost him to date because of his aforementioned low BABIP, but as that evens out over time Vargas will have to make adjustments in order to remain a productive pitcher.

 

The Marlins are still right in the thick of the playoff race, but are looking more like a wild-card team at this point. They are in second place; at press time the Postseason Odds Report still listed the Braves as an overwhelming favorite to take the NL East title. In order to stave off the Phillies, Mets and Astros, the Marlins will have to hope they have some more of that Jason Vargas lightning left in their bottle.

 

--Paul Swydan

 

 

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4369

Great post. Thanks for making it.

 

I love to read BP's analysis. I trust it more than nearly anything else I read.