Commentary: Willis deserves Cy Young

By Joe Capozzi

 

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

 

Sunday, October 02, 2005

 

As a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America, I have a vote for the National League Cy Young Award. It won't be an easy decision.

 

Dontrelle Willis (22-10, 2.59 ERA) makes his final start today. If he gets lit up early and has an awful start, he might not get my vote. As of Saturday, however, I planned to cast my first-place vote for Willis.

 

Yes, I cover the Marlins, Willis' team. But I'm not a "homer," as supporters of Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter (21-5, 2.83 ERA) will claim. Put simply, Willis is the best pitcher in the National League because he alone does more to help his team than Carpenter alone does to help the Cardinals.

 

Look at the chart that compares the pitchers, and their numbers are nearly identical.

 

Not on the chart, though, is a statistic that will make Carpenter the top pick of many voters ? his streak of 18 consecutive quality starts without a loss from June 3 to Sept. 8. Willis opened the season with a 24-inning scoreless streak and added a 19-inning scoreless run in June.

 

For me, there's one statistic that speaks the loudest in favor of Willis, who goes for his 23rd win today in the final game of the season. With his 22 wins, Willis has accounted for 27 percent of the Marlins' victories, the highest percentage in the majors.

 

The last time a pitcher on a winning team was responsible for that high a percentage was in 1975, when Catfish Hunter took 23 of the Yankees' 83 victories (27.7 percent). It hasn't happened in the NL since 1971, when Ferguson Jenkins won 24 of the Cubs' 83 games (28.9 percent).

 

Carpenter's 21 wins account for 21 percent of St. Louis' wins.

 

How many games would Willis win with support from the Cardinals' offense? How many games would Carpenter win with support from the Marlins' offense?

 

Another compelling argument in favor of Willis is that he does more for his team when he is in the game than Carpenter does. I'm not referring just to the energy that Marlins players often say they feel when Willis takes the ball, which is an intangible not measured in a box score.

 

Willis is batting.258 with one home run and 11 RBI. He has batted seventh and eighth in his past four starts, instead of ninth. Carpenter is hitting.065 with three RBI, but that doesn't matter with the lineup that bats ahead of him.

 

There are other pro-Willis tidbits. He has allowed 10 home runs in his 229 innings pitched. The last time an NL pitcher won at least 22 games and allowed 10 or fewer home runs was in 1947, when Ewell Blackwell did it for the Reds.

 

If Willis wins today without giving up a home run, he will be the first NL pitcher with 23 wins and 10 homers allowed since the Reds' Bucky Walters in 1944.

 

Carpenter has some pretty compelling numbers as well. Undefeated from June 14 to Sept. 18, Carpenter was the best pitcher in baseball for a good chunk of the season.

 

In his past four starts, however, Carpenter (21-5) allowed 36 hits and 25 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings, a 10.38 ERA.

 

Willis struggled in July, posting a 7.14 ERA in five starts that month. But he leads the league in wins and shutouts (five). And with his all-around play, he is doing more than any other pitcher in baseball does when he starts.

 

Carpenter will finish the season with more strikeouts and a better winning percentage. And barring an outstanding start today from Willis, Carpenter will have a lower opponents' batting average and slightly more innings pitched. Both have seven complete games, and Willis has one more shutout.

 

It will be close, and I wouldn't be shocked if Carpenter wins. Willis can sway more voters today with an outstanding start. But other observers already think he is the winner.

 

"I would have thought Carpenter was the front-runner when he was 21-4," manager Jack McKeon said. "He's struggling a little bit, but Dontrelle has been outstanding. The main reason I want to see him get it is because he deserves it. The guy has tremendous pride in what he does. He plays the game the way it's supposed to be played."

 

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Duh.. Dontrelle should win and probably will win.

 

How many games would Willis win with support from the Cardinals' offense? How many games would Carpenter win with support from the Marlins' offense?

 

The always famous what if questions.. I love those.. We'll never know so why even bother with those questions?

 

Carpenter was the best pitcher in baseball for a good chunk of the season.

 

So because of ONE bad month which all pitchers have you eliminate Carpenter basically is what I've been hearing recently because a bad September which outdoes his great full year til then..

 

Yep that's baseball for ya..

 

If Dontrelle gets it, Congrats. He'd have earned it.

Good read.

Duh.. Dontrelle should win and probably will win.

 

How many games would Willis win with support from the Cardinals' offense? How many games would Carpenter win with support from the Marlins' offense?

 

The always famous what if questions.. I love those.. We'll never know so why even bother with those questions?

 

Carpenter was the best pitcher in baseball for a good chunk of the season.

 

So because of ONE bad month which all pitchers have you eliminate Carpenter basically is what I've been hearing recently because a bad September which outdoes his great full year til then..

 

Yep that's baseball for ya..

 

If Dontrelle gets it, Congrats. He'd have earned it.

 

They've both had one bad month. Dontrelle still has a lower ERA and more wins.