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Staying Positive


Stag5
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Boy this ball got rolling fast. We knew heading into the off-season that AJ, Encarnacion and Alex were in all likelylihood gone. We knew that Mike Lowell and to a lesser extent Juan Pierre were contracts that Marlins wanted to lose.. We also knew that the combination of a heavily backloaded contract, Delgado's age and the addition of players such as Hermidia, Willingham, Vargas, Olsen, etc. for a full season it was possible the Marlins would look into the possibility of moving Carlos. We knew there was a very good chance that these six players and even someone like Todd Jones would be gone and no one was crying firesale. NO ONE!

 

Now Beckett's name has come up and all of a sudden the media and fans are going wild. After that news we hear the Marlins have been discussing LoDuca and Castillo with teams. In this time we have heard the Marlins payroll will be slashed to $55MM...then $50MM...now $40MM. This latest article says that Samson has demanded the payroll be slashed 25-30% with speculation it may be as low as $40M(33%). Give it time and 'a source' will say it may be down to $35M or $30M and that we may not allow Girardi to hire a bench coach.

 

So we trade Beckett and Lowell for Blalock. Like it or not, Lowell in the deal with his contract lowers Beckett's value. I'll be the first to say that a good pitcher beats a good bat. But come on...trading for a young solid hitter such as Blalock who has been an All-Star is not exactly trading for garbage. But wait..."sources" say that we may turn around and trade Blalock for prospects. If we wanted prospects wouldn't we take the Red Sox offer? If the goal was ONLY to lose payroll why chance getting stuck with Blalock's conract?

 

I am not trying to say anyone should be happy about this, but let's not judge things before they are complete. Maybe it's Castillo OR Pierre. Maybe it's LoDuca and Pierre OR Beckett. Maybe the various names are being shopped to see which path is best to take. Which deals gives us the best team for budget we will go with. The only thing that is certain is that local and national media love the topic of firesale. They love the topic of no baseball in South Florida. They love the topic of the Marlins payroll going lower and lower and every player acquired will be churned until it reaches the lowest possible payroll.

 

Great to see everyone has such faith in a few men that showed faith in us as fans (though we didn't deliver for them...not saying fans are obligated to). Loria came in here and traded away Floyd and Dempster and got drilled. It worked out. He spent money midseason of 2003 as he said he would to bring us a winner. He spent more money to bring in people like Pudge and Delgado as free agents. He has NEVER let us down. Will he this time, maybe. Hell, why not...many of you have already convicted him.

 

I understand it's a business so I can't fault Loria for whatever he does. Just as I cannot fault anyone for not going to Marlins games. We do with our money as we wish and he does with his what he thinks is right.

 

For those of you that will be a Marlins fan and attend games no matter what try as best you can to accept any deals and look for the positives...we'll have fun. For those that have already stated that if Beckett is dealt they will not attend any more games or are done with the Marlins....SEEYA! You are a fan of winning and not the Marlins so no big loss. That's why you left us in 1998 and returned in 2003.

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Where there's smoke there's fire, and there's always an underlying issue in every article to come out since the PB Post's "firesale" article: something just isn't right.

 

There are multiple articles saying that owners (thanks to revenue sharing and new media contracts) are awash in cash, that this could be a record setting offseason of spending, yet the Marlins aren't just crying poor, they're calling for a team to be gutted of almost all its talent on the way to the lowest payroll in the majors.

 

I don't know what to believe, but I do know that I don't really feel very good about anything I've read.

 

Not trying to turn this around on you, I want to stay positive, and remember that nothing has happened yet.

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I generally agree with those statements stag. I thought about it this morning and I realized, though the media says otherwise, that what we might end up going through is about the same as what the As went through, not only last year but the years prior. Yes we are losing our prime guys, but they had to break up arguably the most effective big there since Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine. They had to see a fiery hard working clutch shortstop tearfully leave via free agency. They had to see their prized slugger cut his hair and move to NY. I think what is happening now(and Im sure Im stating the obvious) is a similiar reality to what Bean did with Hudson and Mulder last year. Its the realization that the free agent pool is weak and now is the best time to cut payroll and get prime prospects back and perhaps extend this stadium search for that much longer in S. Florida. Unlike the 98 firesale, few people can blame Loria for having to lower his payroll and the media seems to be acknowledging this.

 

What sucks is that we are losing two guys we saw develop through our system and rise to become stars. Beckett will forever be engrained in Marlins history after his playoff run. It sucks having this feeling that we betrayed Delgado, especially after the experience of chasing him last offseason and us coming off us more professional compared to the Mets and Rangers. What sucks is that we already went through this once and we dont want to again. But heh, if As fans can go through it, so can we.

 

My only hope is that this doesnt get too deep. My dream is that it is limited to either Beckett/Delgado and then Lowell. I think it will end up being all three.

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I agree. I feel worse losing Beckett than Delgado. I remember when we drafted Beckett and he had his first radio interview with Joe Rose. Joe asked him what he asks everyone.....so, you looking forward to South Beach? Josh told him he had a girlfriend and Joe just laughed.

 

TSwift..I am not saying it won't be the case. But what do we have to lose to wait and see instead of trusting "they say", "sources say?"

 

And if and when trades occur well...I saw big hits by Hank Blalock. We saw what Heilman can do. Xavier Nady has a real bat. Aaron Rowand or Brandon McCarthy I'd enjoy having as a Marlin.

 

Yea, much of the fun being a fan of a team is seeing the same players year in and year out as much as possible....but this is what it is. I am going to try to stay positive and I know many people on this board stay positive to a fault (remember I wanted AJ traded to anyone b4 the deadline because I felt we were done)....so I hope the majoity stick it out at least until there is something official to be digusted with.

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Question:

 

1. This team is one headed up by a genius of a GM that constantly adjusts his team's roster in order to stay competive while playing in a small-market.

 

2. This team plays in a bad market that does not deserve baseball and is about to gut its roster.

 

Your choices are - A. Marlins B. Athletics

 

Ken Rosenthal article...

 

Upon learning of the Blue Jays' five-year, $50 million offer to free-agent righthander A.J. Burnett, one executive said, "If Billy (Beane) was hesitating on trading (Barry) Zito, I would think this would have him placing billboards saying, 'Former Cy Young winner for sale, lightly used,' outside every team's stadium." Zito, a free agent after next season, is owed a mere $8.25 million in 2006. ...

 

So when the A's deal Mulder, Hudson, Tejada, Giambi, Damon, Foulke, and now maybe Barry Zito Billy Beane is a genius. We trade players and it's a firesale. This is the unfair spin placed on both these teams.

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I think the term firesale applied, espicially in 1998, because there was no reason to make all of those roster changes. H. Wayne had intentionally bad(and false) financial records to indicate losses and did away with a world champion for no reason.

 

I think it applies here because we will be losing big money players(AJ, Encarnacion), and replacing them with league minimum players. About 7 rookies were a lock to make the team next year IMO(Hermida in the field, Olsen, Varags, Johnson in the rotation, and Kensing, Messenger, and resop in the pen), plus several other low $ players spread throughout(Willingham, Aguila, Dillon, Easley, probably Josh Wilson, Jeff Conine). Plus Miguel hasn't reached arbitration yet so he would be in the $500 to 800k range. That is 14 players right there, more than half of the roster, totaling less than or right at $5 million. Gonzalez said, wether he sticks to his word or not, to take a discount...probably less than what Castillo took...to stay. So your looking at roughly $8-10 million for 3/5 of the payroll. If we traded Pierre and Lowell, even eating half of his contract, would still have us in the $45 million/50 range. Add to that incresing finances from TV and revenue sharing, and prior large $$ backloaded contracts coming off of the books, and the team actually figured to come out even or slightly ahead.

 

That is why all of these moves and the gutting of the team makes no sense to anyone. Because it doesn't seem necessary.

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I think the term firesale applied, espicially in 1998, because there was no reason to make all of those roster advances.

 

I think it applies here because we will be losing big money players(AJ, Encarnacion), and replacing them with league minimum players. About 7 rookies were a lock to make the team next year IMO(Hermida in the field, Olsen, Varags, Johnson in the rotation, and Kensing, Messenger, and resop in the pen), plus several other low $ players spread throughout(Willingham, Aguila, Dillon, Easley, probably Josh Wilson, Jeff Conine). Plus Miguel hasn't reached arbitration yet so he would be in the $500 to 800k range. That is 14 players right there, more than half of the roster, totaling less than or right at $5 million. Gonzalez said, wether he sticks to his word or not, to take a discount...probably less than what Castillo took...to stay. So your looking at roughly $8-10 million for $3/5 of the payroll. If we traded Pierre and Lowell, even eating half of his contract, would still have us in the $45 million/50 range. Add to that incresing finances from TV and revenue sharing, and prior large $$ backloaded contracts coming off of the books, and the team actually figured to come out even or slightly ahead.

 

That is why all of these moves and the gutting of the team makes no sense to anyone. Because it doesn't seem necessary.

 

some of them are baseball decisions too - IMO Alex isn't worth the 6-8M he's going to get (he is not going to settle for a 4M deal from us). He's worth it if you're putting team together to go to the World Series. Keeping Luis, who is obviously on the downside of his career, despite good numbers, he missed a ton of games last year, and played in others where he was obviously more than a little banged up. Lo Duca is nice but not spectacular, but not worth the 6-7 per he is going to get for the next 3 years. He hit .280, 6 hrs, 50 RBI. He does a nice job with the pitching staff, but Trainor has been in the minors for 10 years, I think he knows a thing or two, and they can use Willingham or get a veteran journeyman to split time for the offense Duke puts up. You can't have a guy taking up 1/3 of your payroll, no matter how good he is. (Delgado). Lowell, we know, is not worth his salary anymore, and even if he were, there is Cabrera to play his position at 20x the production and 1/20th the salary). Encarnacion is loseable, and he's going to get 5-6M from someone.

 

We'll be taking two or three steps back now and hopefully it will pay off in the years ahead, like the 98 purge payed off in 2003.

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Ken Rosenthal article...

 

Upon learning of the Blue Jays' five-year, $50 million offer to free-agent righthander A.J. Burnett, one executive said, "If Billy (Beane) was hesitating on trading (Barry) Zito, I would think this would have him placing billboards saying, 'Former Cy Young winner for sale, lightly used,' outside every team's stadium." Zito, a free agent after next season, is owed a mere $8.25 million in 2006. ...

 

So when the A's deal Mulder, Hudson, Tejada, Giambi, Damon, Foulke, and now maybe Barry Zito Billy Beane is a genius. We trade players and it's a firesale. This is the unfair spin placed on both these teams.

 

Yeah, but look how much Zito is making in 2006, more than double what Beckett is making.

 

Beckett isn't just arguably the best player on the team (and the best pitcher, go ahead and fire away at that one), he's also one of the two or three best bargains in the sports world. He's the kind of player the Marlins would never in a million years think they could land in a trade and you're going to tell me that equal value is a troubled short-stop prospect with amazing tools, but average numbers, and motivation issues?

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