Winners and losers of the exodus

Stewart Mandel, SI.com

 

Stewart Mandel

SI.com

 

Last year, the undisputed top story of college football's annual postseason draft scramble was USC quarterback Matt Leinart's decision to bypass NFL riches and return for his senior season. A year later, nearly all the big names -- Vince Young, Reggie Bush, LenDale White -- took the money and ran.

 

One can hardly fault such upper-echelon prospects' decisions. Their stock was unlikely to get much higher, and signing bonuses upwards of $20 million await them. It's the lower-tier defectors -- guys who leave school early despite little chance of going in the first two rounds -- who drive college coaches and fans bonkers, because in most cases they would have been valuable contributors to their teams next season.

 

Of course, some teams are better stocked to replace unexpected departures than others. Here are the biggest winners and losers after college football's 2006 underclass exodus:

 

Winner: Penn State

 

ADVERTISEMENT

click here

Coach Joe Paterno loses 13 senior starters from last year's 11-1 squad, including standouts such as QB Michael Robinson, DE Tamba Hali and CB Alan Zemaitis, but he was able to retain his two All-America juniors, LB Paul Posluszny and LT Levi Brown. "I have decided to declare myself eligible," joked Brown, "for another year of coaching under Joe Paterno."

 

Obviously, having Butkus-winner Posluszny back for another season is a huge plus, but Brown's decision may prove even more beneficial. It took three years for Penn State to develop a formidable offensive line (the Nittany Lions went from ninth in the Big Ten in rushing in 2004 to second in '05), and now four of those starters are graduating. With a mentor like Brown back, perhaps the next crop of newbies won't take quite so long to mature.

 

Loser: USC

 

Coach Pete Carroll's talent-stocked program has weathered the departures of star players nearly every offseason. But until this year, he'd actually gone relatively light on underclass defections, losing just three (DE Kenechi Udeze, WR Mike Williams and LB Lofa Tatupu) in four seasons. Now he's lost a staggering five: RBs Bush and White, OLs Winston Justice and Fred Matua and S Darnell Bing. All but Matua were expected to leave, though Carroll reportedly tried hard to sway Justice and Bing into returning and improving their stock.

 

The Trojans' backfield will likely be a work in progress next season. Incoming freshmen like Emmanuel Moody will have a chance to contribute immediately. Former starter Hershel Dennis, who had just 28 carries in 2004 and missed last season with a knee injury, is expected back, but isn't nearly as explosive as Bush or White. Three other returnees in the backfield, Desmond Reed, Chauncey Washington and Michael Coleman, are expected to miss spring practices. An equally big loss is Bing, USC's defensive leader, who along with departed senior Scott Ware leaves holes at the two safety positions. Possible replacements include identical twins Ryan and Brandon Ting, who saw significant playing time this season.

 

Winner: Notre Dame

 

The Irish, looking to build on their first nine-win season in five years, lost one standout underclassman, tight end Anthony Fasano, but that loss pales in comparison to quarterback Brady Quinn and receiver Jeff Samardzija returning for another year. Both will enter next season as arguably the top players in the country at their positions.

 

Even with Fasano out of the equation, coach Charlie Weis will have 16 starters back in 2006, the most of any team in the AP's final top 10. Someone will need to step up big at tight end, however. Fasano accounted for 47 catches and 576 yards; his backup, John Carlson, had just seven catches for 56 yards.

 

Loser: Ohio State

 

Losing Santonio Holmes was one thing -- the junior, who will likely be the first receiver taken, was long assumed to be going pro. The Buckeyes still have a solid returning receiving corps with Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez and Roy Hall. The defections that really hurt were those of cornerback Ashton Youboty and safety Donte Whitner, both borderline first-rounders. OSU, already faced with replacing all three starting linebackers, lost its entire secondary as well.

 

The buzz out of the Fiesta Bowl, where Troy Smith and the Buckeyes put up 617 yards in a win over Notre Dame, was that OSU would be a logical preseason No. 1 headed into next season, but you don't see a whole lot of preseason No. 1s with two returning starters on defense. Coach Jim Tressel does have, however, some promising youngsters in the secondary. Freshman cornerback Malcolm Jenkins was the third-leading tackler in the Fiesta Bowl, and safety Jamario O'Neal was one of the nation's top recruits a year ago.

 

Winner: Ole Miss

 

Coach Ed Orgeron had a nightmarish fall, going 3-8 in his debut season, but thus far, January has been filled with good news.

 

First, the former Miami assistant landed former colleagues Dan Werner and Art Kehoe as his new offensive coordinator and offensive line coach, respectively. Last weekend, Oregeron received a visit from ex-Tennessee quarterback Brent Schaeffer, who, if he chooses to transfer to Oxford (it's down to Ole Miss, Wisconsin and N.C. State), would give the Rebs a much-needed upgrade. And most pleasing of all, All-America linebacker Patrick Willis, the nation's sixth-leading tackler last year, elected to return for his senior season.

 

Loser: N.C. State

 

Chuck Amato's program was already viewed by many as a sinking ship (the Wolfpack finished 11-3 in 2002, then went a combined 12-11 in '04 and '05). N.C. State's underclassmen seemed to be in a hurry to jump overboard. Defensive end Mario Williams, a projected top-10 pick, can hardly be faulted for leaving, but defensive tackle John McCargo, linebacker Stephen Tulloch and tackle Derek Morris are all marginal prospects who would have benefitted greatly from another year in school.

 

Amato is now faced with rebuilding the core of a defense that ranked among the nation's best the past two seasons (the offense stunk). Gone are not only Williams, McCargo and Tulloch, but also defensive end Manny Lawson, linebacker Oliver Hoyte and cornerback Marcus Hudson. Two highly recruited D-linemen who redshirted last season, Willie Young and Littleton Wright, will need to contribute immediately next season.

 

Winners: LSU and Georgia

 

Last year's SEC divisional champs really only had one player each to worry about, but they were pretty important players, and both came back. For the Tigers, safety LaRon Landry will contend for All-America honors and provide much-needed leadership for a defense losing several veteran leaders (defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Claude Wroten, linebacker Cameron Vaughn). The Dawgs, meanwhile, get back big-time pass rusher Quentin Moses, who had 11.5 sacks last season.

 

Loser: South Carolina

 

Half of South Carolina's starting secondary turned pro. All-America safety Ko Simpson was the heart and soul of the Gamecocks' defense the past two seasons, and though he's just a redshirt sophomore, he is 22 and likely NFL-ready. He'll need impressive workouts to crack the first round, though. Cornerback Jonathan Joseph, who led the team with four interceptions, played just one season after transferring from a junior college and is not ready. Meanwhile, linebacker Dustin Lindsay, South Carolina's third-leading tackler in 2005, has been deemed academically ineligible for '06, leaving Steve Spurrier with just three returning starters on defense.

 

Winner: Miami

 

The 'Canes certainly wanted playmaking return man Devin Hester back for another season, but his departure had been expected for months. The good news for Miami is that after losing 10 underclassmen to the NFL during the past four seasons (seven were first-round picks), Hester was this year's only early exit. Defensive end Baraka Atkins and receiver Ryan Moore wrestled with leaving but decided to stay. Tight end Greg Olsen and safety Brandon Merriweather probably could have made the jump, but never seriously considered it.

 

Losers: Florida State and Florida

 

The 'Noles lost what would have been their two best defensive players: cornerback Antonio Cromartie and linebacker Ernie Sims. Cromartie put his name in despite missing all of last season with a torn ACL. Defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews rarely has problems reloading, though. The Gators, meanwhile, lost both their top receiver, Chad Jackson, and cornerback, Dee Webb, both of whom would have benefitted from another year. Urban Meyer will likely rely on incoming freshmen to plug the holes at receiver. Inexperienced Avery Atkins and Reggie Lewis need to step up at cornerback.

 

Winner: Louisville

 

NFL teams would have been salivating over tailback Michael Bush, a punishing runner who scored 23 touchdowns last season, once they saw the 6-3, 250-pounder up close. Fortunately for the Cardinals, an early evaluation from the NFL's advisory board came back with a second-round projection, so Bush held off on his "childhood dream to play three years in college and [get] out." His return ensures that coach Bobby Petrino's offense will be even more powerful in 2006, assuming quarterback Brian Brohm returns successfully from his ACL injury.

 

Loser: Purdue

 

The Boilers had, without doubt, the strangest underclass exodus. First, defensive end Ray Edwards and safety Bernard Pollard -- neither of whom had particularly great seasons -- skipped town seemingly within minutes of the final whistle last November, trashing Purdue's coaches on the way out. Then quarterback Brandon Kirsch, who lost his job to freshman Curtis Painter halfway through the season, followed suit this month. Purdue goes down as a loser on paper, but in reality it sounds like addition by subtraction.

Purdue is a mess

Loser: Ohio State

 

Losing Santonio Holmes was one thing -- the junior, who will likely be the first receiver taken, was long assumed to be going pro. The Buckeyes still have a solid returning receiving corps with Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez and Roy Hall. The defections that really hurt were those of cornerback Ashton Youboty and safety Donte Whitner, both borderline first-rounders. OSU, already faced with replacing all three starting linebackers, lost its entire secondary as well.

 

The buzz out of the Fiesta Bowl, where Troy Smith and the Buckeyes put up 617 yards in a win over Notre Dame, was that OSU would be a logical preseason No. 1 headed into next season, but you don't see a whole lot of preseason No. 1s with two returning starters on defense. Coach Jim Tressel does have, however, some promising youngsters in the secondary. Freshman cornerback Malcolm Jenkins was the third-leading tackler in the Fiesta Bowl, and safety Jamario O'Neal was one of the nation's top recruits a year ago.

 

Losing Whitner hurts, but our defense is going to be fine. It always is.

 

I can't wait to see O'Neal get on the field.

 

And our LB group is going to be better than expected. Obvious drop-off, but will still be a quality group.