NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

 

One GM says "the National League has become the Pete Rozelle league. No great teams, but everyone has a chance."

 

OK, not quite. Florida doesn't have a chance because it is overhauling after three legitimate years in which it contended. Washington is going to have a hard time because of all the injuries, and the fact that as long as the Nationals are MLB wards, there isn't the revenue to fill in around some of their very good players like John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Chad Cordero, Brian Schneider, Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro, Alfonso Soriano and cornerstone corner Ryan Zimmerman. After all these years...

 

Unless Washington gets help, the 2006 question will be the same as it's been since before there were Marlins and Rockies: Can anyone beat the Braves? In this year's case, the Mets or the Phillies?

 

What the Braves did last season in winning again and breaking in Jeff Francoeur, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, Ryan Langerhans et al was beyond what manager Bobby Cox had accomplished in any other year. But remember this -- future Hall of Famers Chipper and Andruw Jones bought into their responsibilities to the young players, which made it easier. Now, this year, Cox has to replace Rafael Furcal with Edgar Renteria and hope that Edgar's defensive struggles in Boston were simply, as he has said, the manifestation of being uncomfortable, and not a physical fall off the cliff.

 

Atlanta's problem last year was that its starting pitching was average, at best -- fifth in ERA, last in strikeouts. John Smoltz and Tim Hudson have looked better this spring, and Kyle Davies is moving into the rotation. OK, fine. They'll work the last two spots with Horacio Ramirez, John Thomson and Jorge Sosa...

 

Then comes the dilemma Cox faces every year Smoltz isn't in the bullpen -- finding a closer. Kyle Farnsworth took more money to leave home and set up in New York, which tells you what responsibility he doesn't want to face. Macay McBride and Blaine Boyer went down in spring training. Chris Reitsma has the stuff but has a history of mistakes. So somewhere -- Oscar Villarreal, McBride, Sosa -- Cox will find a closer and the Braves will be right there near 90 wins.

 

If everything fell together for the Mets, they can be better than the Braves. Their three young stars, Jose Reyes (best energy in the game?), David Wright and Carlos Beltran, are magical, and Beltran could be what they hoped when they signed him. Carlos Delgado and Cliff Floyd are big bats in the middle, if healthy.

 

And health is a big key, and far beyond Delgado and Floyd. They need Pedro Martinez to make 28-33 starts and not be so bothered by his toe that he can throw 88-90 mph; if he can, he will win. They cannot afford to lose any starting pitching right down to Brian Bannister in the No. 5 hole, and they have to hope that the league doesn't adjust to Tom Glavine's second-half adjustment when he began pitching in and using his curveball. GM Omar Minaya went out and built a deep bullpen -- putting Aaron Heilman back in the setup role -- in front of Billy Wagner, but they have to keep Wagner healthy.

 

The Mets can beat the Braves. Will is another matter.

 

The Phillies are going to be very dangerous, with the three powers in the infield -- Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard -- and the improved defense of Aaron Rowand between Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell.

 

The pitching has its issues. Brett Myers and Jon Lieber need help in the rotation, and they have to hope Tom Gordon and Arthur Rhodes stay healthy with the help of Ryan Madson. One thing is very different: Pat Gillick is now in charge, and his resume shows winning in Toronto, Seattle and Baltimore because he was willing to make unconventional moves.

 

There are going to be some hot, wet nights in South Florida when teams are going to dread facing Dontrelle Willis, Josh Johnson, et al. What's important is that come September, where will they be? On the brink of another outstanding team built around Miguel Cabrera, Jeremy Hermida and Hanley Ramirez? Headed to San Antonio or Palm Desert?

I don't know where he gets off calling Andruw Jones a future Hall of Famer.

 

And Chipper is just a maybe.

I don't know where he gets off calling Andruw Jones a future Hall of Famer.

 

And Chipper is just a maybe.

 

Um...you're crazy, right? Adruw Jones is 28, has over 300 home runs, and collects gold golves like they're regular jewelry. I hate the braves, but Andruw Jones is pretty darn good, and he has become much more of a power threat in the last few years. If he puts similar numbers up over the next 6 years (33-34 years old), he'll be a first ballot HOF for sure.

I don't know where he gets off calling Andruw Jones a future Hall of Famer.

 

And Chipper is just a maybe.

 

Um...you're crazy, right? Adruw Jones is 28, has over 300 home runs, and collects gold golves like they're regular jewelry. I hate the braves, but Andruw Jones is pretty darn good, and he has become much more of a power threat in the last few years. If he puts similar numbers up over the next 6 years (33-34 years old), he'll be a first ballot HOF for sure.

Just because he hits .500 homers? His batting average is doo-doo.

If you hit 500 HRs, have GG defense and dont get caught with Steriods then yes you are a Hall of Famer.

 

Not to mention the fact he has helped "lead" his teams into the playoffs 14 years in a row.

 

I am 27 years old, that is more then half of my lifetime. I miss it when other teams used to beat the braves

that and he is probably the greatest fielding CF since Willie(maybe better?)

that and he is probably the greatest fielding CF since Willie(maybe better?)

 

who plays 150+ games every year

If you hit 500 HRs, have GG defense and dont get caught with Steriods then yes you are a Hall of Famer.

 

Not to mention the fact he has helped "lead" his teams into the playoffs 14 years in a row.

 

I am 27 years old, that is more then half of my lifetime. I miss it when other teams used to beat the braves

 

He's been in the majors since the very end of 1996, not for 14 years. The Braves were in the playoffs for 5 years in a row before he came along.

 

 

If you hit 500 HRs, have GG defense and dont get caught with Steriods then yes you are a Hall of Famer.

 

Not to mention the fact he has helped "lead" his teams into the playoffs 14 years in a row.

 

I am 27 years old, that is more then half of my lifetime. I miss it when other teams used to beat the braves

 

Andre Dawson has 438 home runs and 8 GG plus one MVP and is not in the Hall.

I was about to make that argument. And the MVP award was on a last place team. When all is said and done, Andruw will have strikingly similar stats to Andre.

 

that and he is probably the greatest fielding CF since Willie(maybe better?)

 

So? You shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame for one outstanding attribute. This is why Ozzie Smith should not be in the Hall of Fame.

If you hit 500 HRs, have GG defense and dont get caught with Steriods then yes you are a Hall of Famer.

 

Not to mention the fact he has helped "lead" his teams into the playoffs 14 years in a row.

 

I am 27 years old, that is more then half of my lifetime. I miss it when other teams used to beat the braves

 

He's been in the majors since the very end of 1996, not for 14 years. The Braves were in the playoffs for 5 years in a row before he came along.

 

 

If you hit 500 HRs, have GG defense and dont get caught with Steriods then yes you are a Hall of Famer.

 

Not to mention the fact he has helped "lead" his teams into the playoffs 14 years in a row.

 

I am 27 years old, that is more then half of my lifetime. I miss it when other teams used to beat the braves

 

Andre Dawson has 438 home runs and 8 GG plus one MVP and is not in the Hall.

I was about to make that argument. And the MVP award was on a last place team. When all is said and done, Andruw will have strikingly similar stats to Andre.

 

that and he is probably the greatest fielding CF since Willie(maybe better?)

 

So? You shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame for one outstanding attribute. This is why Ozzie Smith should not be in the Hall of Fame.

 

 

I was just making the comment of how amazing their run is (and frustrating it is).

 

As for Ozzie getting inwhen he isnt "supposed to" well he did get in though so that makes another good reason to see him in.

 

I honestly think if he hits 500 HR and keeps getting GG's he will make the HoF someday.

Andrew Jones is entering his prime now. he has probably 8-10 more years of his best baseball left.

 

I say he has very good chances on the HOF

So you should get in just because another player who didn't deserve to get in did?

 

Lance Parrish should be getting at least 70% of the vote then since Gary Carter's in.

I don't know where he gets off calling Andruw Jones a future Hall of Famer.

 

And Chipper is just a maybe.

 

Um...you're crazy, right? Adruw Jones is 28, has over 300 home runs, and collects gold golves like they're regular jewelry. I hate the braves, but Andruw Jones is pretty darn good, and he has become much more of a power threat in the last few years. If he puts similar numbers up over the next 6 years (33-34 years old), he'll be a first ballot HOF for sure.

Just because he hits .500 homers? His batting average is doo-doo.

 

Reggie Jackson hit 563 HRs yet his career BA is doo-doo (.266; Jones .267), he's also the all-time leader in SOs and he's still a HoFer.

 

Fun stat:

 

Similarity Scores

Explanation

 

Similar Batters through Age 28

 

Frank Robinson (879) *

Ruben Sierra (872)

Al Kaline (863) *

Eddie Mathews (863) *

Ron Santo (856)

Ken Griffey (852)

Hank Aaron (832) *

Darryl Strawberry (832)

Juan Gonzalez (829)

Barry Bonds (827)

 

* for HoFers

I don't know where he gets off calling Andruw Jones a future Hall of Famer.

 

And Chipper is just a maybe.

 

Um...you're crazy, right? Adruw Jones is 28, has over 300 home runs, and collects gold golves like they're regular jewelry. I hate the braves, but Andruw Jones is pretty darn good, and he has become much more of a power threat in the last few years. If he puts similar numbers up over the next 6 years (33-34 years old), he'll be a first ballot HOF for sure.

Just because he hits .500 homers? His batting average is doo-doo.

 

Reggie Jackson hit 563 HRs yet his career BA is doo-doo (.266; Jones .267), he's also the all-time leader in SOs and he's still a HoFer.

 

Fun stat:

 

Similarity Scores

Explanation

 

Similar Batters through Age 28

 

Frank Robinson (879) *

Ruben Sierra (872)

Al Kaline (863) *

Eddie Mathews (863) *

Ron Santo (856)

Ken Griffey (852)

Hank Aaron (832) *

Darryl Strawberry (832)

Juan Gonzalez (829)

Barry Bonds (827)

 

* for HoFers

 

That list raises some interesting points then. You have to be willing to concede that Juan Gonzalez is a HOFer, which I know many people don't believe despite his stats. Also, why has Santo been consistently screwed over by the voting committee? .277/.362/.464 342/1331 is pretty damn good for having only played 15 years and being injured his last year. Is it because he was forced to retire early? If so, why is Sandy Koufax in the HOF?

 

How about Harold Baines? Will he (.289/.356/.465 384/1628) make the Hall of Fame? Where's a player like Cesar Cedeno (.285/.347/.443 199/975/550 sb? Both were far more "complete" players than is Andruw.

 

 

And since your list is similar through age 28, was anyone calling Ruben Sierra a HOFer when he was 28? Didn't think so.

 

Now let's look at the full similarity score list you conveniently left out.

 

1. Jeromy Burnitz (935)

2. Hank Sauer (916)

3. Eric Davis (914)

4. Darryl Strawberry (912)

5. Roger Maris (910)

6. Jay Buhner (909)

7. Danny Tartabull (908)

8. Raul Mondesi (905)

9. Reggie Sanders (904)

10. Ryan Klesko (898)

 

How many HOFers there?

 

 

How about this list, most similar by age.

 

20. Eddie Mathews (930) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

21. Ruben Sierra (961) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

22. Ruben Sierra (957) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

23. Ruben Sierra (947) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

24. Ruben Sierra (930) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

25. Ruben Sierra (913) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

26. Ruben Sierra (900) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

27. Ruben Sierra (894) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

28. Frank Robinson (879) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

 

Until his aberration last year he was consistently similar to Ruben Sierra. Do you really think he'll keep hitting 45-50 homers a year? Once he puts up a normal Andruw season, he'll no longer be compared to Robinson, he'll be back to a Sierra-type player with an amazing glove.

 

And yes, Reggie may have the most Ks. So? Guess who has the most all-time losses? Cy Young.

 

While I agree he has loads of potential and is still in his prime, it's as ridiculous as it is to call him a future HOFer at this point as it is to call Pujols one, since no one knows what the future holds. Jones could end up like Sierra, just like Pujols could end up (God forbid) like Tony Conigliaro.

Touche, didn't see that second list.

 

Using Young's all-time losses stat is apples and oranges.

Hawk not being in the HOF doesnt make it right. Hawk deserves to be in the HOF. As for Andruw Jones he is gonna be a HOF one day and Chipper Jones too.

The second list is based on career. It's not altogether crazy to suggest Andruw Jones may have some of his best years ahead of him. Just as many of the players on his age-specific comparables list had.

that and he is probably the greatest fielding CF since Willie(maybe better?)

 

 

 

Maybe not.