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Analysis of top and potential career homerun leaders (Long!)


savafan
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As best I can, I'm going to research the numbers on current players vs. each other and Aaron and Ruth.

 

Ken Griffey Jr.

 

At the age of 36, Ken Griffey Jr. now has 537 homeruns. At the age of 36, Hank Aaron had 592 career homers, a difference of 55 homeruns. Griffey has amassed his homerun total playing in 2,127 games, while Aaron had played in 2,576 games by age 36, a difference of 449 games advantage to Aaron. Junior has hit his 537 career homeruns in 7,878 at bats, while Aaron hit his 592 homeruns by age 36 in 9,952 at bats, a difference of 2,074 at bats advantage to Aaron.

 

Analysis: By age 36, Hank Aaron had hit 55 more homeruns than Ken Griffey Jr. while playing in 449 more games and amassing 2,074 more at bats. In essence, playing 2.7 more seasons than Junior.

 

At age 36, Babe Ruth had 611 homeruns, 74 more than Griffey and 19 more than Aaron. He accomplished this while playing in 2,080 games, 47 less than Griffey and 496 less games than Aaron. It took Ruth 7,045 at bats to hit his 611 homeruns, 833 less at bats than Junior, and 2,907 less than Aaron, a staggering number.

 

Analysis: Aaron had 19 less homeruns than Ruth at age 36, while playing the equivalent of 3.06 more modern seasons than the Babe. A more prolific homerun hitter than either Griffey or Aaron, while Griffey is more prolific than Hammerin' Hank.

 

At age 36, Barry Bonds had 567 homeruns. This is 30 more than Griffey, 25 less than Aaron and 44 less than Ruth. Bonds accomplished his age 36 numbers by playing in 2,296 games, 169 more games than Griffey (roughly one season), 280 less games than Aaron and 216 more than Ruth. Bonds numbers came in 7,932 at bats, just 54 more at bats than Junior, 2,020 less at bats than Aaron and 887 more at bats than Ruth.

 

Analysis: At the age of 36, Griffey and Bonds are almost equal on the homerun pace. Ruth is by far the more prolific homerun hitter of the four, and Aaron had a huge advantage over everyone by playing in many more games and gaining a large advantage of at bats.

 

Age 36 one homerun per # of at bats:

 

Griffey-14.67

Aaron-16.81

Ruth-11.53

Bonds-13.98

 

Barry Bonds

 

At the age of 41 now, Barry Bonds has 708 career homeruns. At the same age, Hank Aaron had 745 homeruns, while Babe Ruth retired at the age of 40 with 714 homeruns.

 

Barry Bonds has played in 2,732 career games. At the age of 41, Hank Aaron had 3,213 games played, an advantage of 481 games (2.96 modern seasons more than Bonds). Barry has 9,145 career at bats, while Aaron had 12,093 at bats at the age of 41, an advantage of 2,948 at bats.

 

Analysis: At age 41, Hank Aaron had 37 more career homeruns than Barry Bonds has while playing the equivalency of almost 3 more modern seasons. This makes Bonds a more prolific homerun hitter than Aaron.

 

Now, let's compare Bonds and Ruth's career numbers. 708 career homeruns for Barry, 714 for Ruth. Ruth played in 2,503 games, 229 less than Barry Bonds. The Babe had 8,398 at bats, 747 less than Bonds.

 

Analysis: No matter what happens going forward, the numbers show that Babe Ruth was a better homerun hitter than both Bonds and Aaron.

 

Age 40/41 one homerun per # of at bats:

 

Bonds-12.91

Aaron-16.23

Ruth-11.76

 

Alex Rodriguez

 

Alex Rodriguez has hit 430 homeruns now by the age of 30. By the age of 30, Griffey had hit 438 homeruns. Rodriguez has played in 1,595 career games. Griffey had 1,680 games at age 30, an advantage of 85 games. ARod has 6,208 career at bats. Griffey had 6,352 at bats, an advantage of 144 at bats. The two are so close at age 30, it's eery, however, ARod is ever so slightly the more prolific homerun hitter with one homerun every 14.4 at bats to Griffey's one homerun every 14.5 at bats.

 

At age 30, Hank Aaron had hit 366 homeruns. He did this in 1,656 games, 61 more games than ARod. Aaron had 6,510 at bats, 302 more than ARod. Rodriguez has 64 more homeruns, playing in less games and with less at bats.

 

Ruth at age 30 had 309 homeruns (he was primarily a pitcher until age 24). Ruth played in 1,198 games and had 3,923 at bats. 121 less homers than ARod while playing in 397 less games (2.45 modern seasons) and having 2,285 less at bats.

 

Bonds at age 30 had 292 career homeruns, 138 less homers than ARod. Bonds had played in 1,425 games, 170 less career games than ARod (roughly one modern season). Bonds had 5,020 career at bats, 1,188 less at bats than ARod.

 

Age 30 one homerun per # of at bats:

 

Griffey-14.5

Rodriguez-14.4

Aaron-17.78

Ruth-12.69

Bonds-17.19

 

Analysis: Bonds was the better homerun hitter than Aaron by age 30, but only slightly. Griffey and Rodriguez were virtually equals, while Ruth was once again more prolific.

 

 

Albert Pujols

 

Albert Pujols has 204 homeruns at the age of 26. He has put up this amount of homers while playing in 792 games and accumulating 2,960 at bats.

 

At age 26, Ken Griffey Jr. had hit 235 homeruns, 31 more than Albert, while playing in 1,057 games, 265 more games than Pujols. Junior had 3,985 at bats, 1,025 more than Pujols.

 

Aaron at age 26 had hit 219 homeruns, 15 more than Pujols. Aaron had played in 1,039 games, 247 more than Pujols. Aaron had 4,114 at bats, 1,154 more at bats than Pujols.

 

Ruth at age 26 had hit 162 homeruns, 42 less than Albert, while playing in 685 games, just 107 less than Pujols. Ruth had 2,107 at bats, 853 less than Pujols.

 

Bonds at age 26 had hit 142 homeruns, 62 less than Albert, while playing in 870 games, 78 more than Pujols. Bonds had 3,111 at bats, 151 more at bats than Pujols.

 

ARod at age 26 had hit 298 homeruns, 94 more than Pujols, while playing in 1,114 games, 322 more than Pujols (roughly 2 modern seasons) and accumulating 4,382 at bats, 1,422 more than Pujols.

 

To compare, Adam Dunn is also 26 and has hit 159 homeruns while playing in 663 games and accumulating 2,278 at bats.

 

 

Age 26 one homerun per # of at bats:

 

Pujols-14.5

Griffey-16.95

Aaron-18.78

Ruth-13.0

Bonds-21.9

Rodriguez-14.7

Dunn-14.32

 

Analysis: We may have the privilege of watching three of the most prolific homerun hitters in history playing right now. If Pujols, ARod and Dunn can all stay healthy, the sky is the limit.

 

Just for fun, I decided to also track Ted Williams at ages 26, 30, 36 and 41.

 

Williams at age 26:

 

Was away from baseball, serving in the war, but here are his stats through age 23 when he last played.

 

586 games played, 2104 at bats, and 127 homeruns.

 

Average 1 homerun every 16.56 at bats.

 

Williams at age 30:

 

1184 games played, 4221 at bats with 265 homeruns.

 

Average 1 homerun every 15.93 at bats.

 

 

Williams at age 36:

 

1679 games played, 5893 at bats with 394 homeruns.

 

Average 1 homerun every 14.96 at bats.

 

 

Williams at 41:

 

2292 games played, 7706 at bats with 521 homeruns.

 

Average 1 homerun every 14.79 at bats.

 

 

 

To compare all of these players at each age as far as who was the best at hitting the long ball most often as follows:

 

 

Age 26

 

1. Babe Ruth 1 homerun every 13 at bats.

2. Adam Dunn 1 homerun every 14.32 at bats.

3. Albert Pujols 1 homerun every 14.5 at bats.

4. Alex Rodriguez 1 homerun every 14.7 at bats.

5. Ted Williams 1 homerun every 16.56 at bats.

6. Ken Griffey Jr. 1 homerun every 16.95 at bats.

7. Hank Aaron 1 homerun every 18.78 at bats.

8. Barry Bonds 1 homerun every 21.9 at bats.

 

 

Age 30

 

1. Babe Ruth 1 homerun every 12.69 at bats.

2. Alex Rodriguez 1 homerun every 14.4 at bats.

3. Ken Griffey Jr. 1 homerun every 14.5 at bats.

4. Ted Williams 1 homerun every 15.93 at bats.

5. Barry Bonds 1 homerun every 17.19 at bats.

6. Hank Aaron 1 homerun every 17.78 at bats.

 

 

Age 36

 

1. Babe Ruth 1 homerun every 11.53 at bats.

2. Barry Bonds 1 homerun every 13.98 at bats.

3. Ken Griffey Jr. 1 homerun every 14.67 at bats.

4. Ted Williams 1 homerun every 14.96 at bats.

5. Hank Aaron 1 homerun every 16.81 at bats.

 

 

Age 40/41

 

1. Babe Ruth 1 homerun every 11.76 at bats.

2. Barry Bonds 1 homerun every 12.91 at bats.

3. Ted Williams 1 homerun every 14.79 at bats.

4. Hank Aaron 1 homerun every 16.23 at bats.

 

 

The Game of Shadows book tells us that Barry Bonds began using steroids in 1998 at the age of 33.

 

Here is a comparison of each of these players through age 33. These numbers may surprise you.

 

Career Homeruns Through Age 33

 

1. Hank Aaron 481 homeruns (tie)

1. Ken Griffey Jr. 481 homeruns (tie)

2. Babe Ruth 470 homeruns

3. Barry Bonds 411 homeruns

4. Ted Williams 324 homeruns

 

Homerun Rate Through Age 33

 

1. Babe Ruth 1 homerun every 11.69 at bats

2. Ken Griffey Jr. 1 homerun every 14.72 at bats

3. Ted Williams 1 homerun every 15.73 at bats

4. Barry Bonds 1 homerun every 16.11 at bats

5. Hank Aaron 1 homerun every 17.22 at bats

 

Babe Ruth is clearly the most prolific homerun hitter of all-time, and we'll probably never see anyone else come close to hitting the long ball at the same rate over an entire career again.

 

Hank Aaron, the all-time career homerun leader, is the least prolific homerun hitter among those listed here, and was so at every age listed, with the exception of age 26 where he was ahead of Barry Bonds.

 

 

While not a scientific study by any means, these numbers show that hitters homerun rates increase as they mature.

 

Here are the homerun rates for all of the active players for the 2005 season.

 

Ken Griffey Jr.-1 homerun every 14.03 at bats

Barry Bonds-1 homerun every 8.4 at bats

Alex Rodriguez-1 homerun every 12.6 at bats

Albert Pujols-1 homerun every 14.41 at bats

Adam Dunn-1 homerun every 13.58 at bats

 

Pretty impressive, no?

 

Okay, now I know this is going to be a stretch, but I'm going to take the career averages of at bats for all of these players and project using their career homerun rate (without accounting for an expected increase during the peak career years) and project what the final homerun totals will look like if all of them can play through age 41, which for some reason seems to be the age that great homerun hitters leave the game. This is accounting that 2006 will be Barry Bonds last year as well.

 

 

1. Alex Rodriguez-858 homeruns

2. Albert Pujols-844 homeruns

3. Hank Aaron-755 homeruns

4. Barry Bonds-743 homeruns

5. Ken Griffey Jr.-725 homeruns

6. Babe Ruth-714 homeruns

7. Adam Dunn-664 homeruns

8. Ted Williams-521 homeruns

 

I've decided to compare and contrast the top 20 homerun hitters with the players I mentioned. Here we go.

 

Career Homeruns at Age 26

 

1. 298-Alex Rodriguez

2. 266-Jimmie Foxx

3. 253-Eddie Matthews

4. 249-Mickey Mantle

5. 242-Mel Ott

6. 241 Frank Robinson

7. 235-Ken Griffey Jr.

8. 219-Hank Aaron

9. 204-Albert Pujols

10. 187-Willie Mays

11. 178-Harmon Killebrew

12. 165-Eddie Murray

13. 162-Babe Ruth

14. 159-Adam Dunn

15. 157-Reggie Jackson

16. 156-Mark McGwire

17. 142-Barry Bonds

18. 136-Ernie Banks

19. 131-Mike Schmidt (tie)

19. 131-Sammy Sosa (tie)

20. 126-Willie McCovey

21. 73-Rafael Palmeiro

 

 

1 Homerun Per # of At BAts, Age 26

 

1. Babe Ruth-1 homerun every 13 at bats

2. Harmon Killebrew-1 homerun every 13.12 at bats

3. Mark McGwire-1 homerun every 13.93 at bats

4. Adam Dunn-1 homerun every 14.32 at bats

5. Albert Pujols-1 homerun every 14.5 at bats

6. Jimmie Foxx-1 homerun every 14.52 at bats

7. Alex Rodriguez-1 homerun every 14.7 at bats

8. Eddie Matthews-1 homerun every 14.83 at bats

9. Willie McCovey-1 homerun every 15.37 at bats

10. Willie Mays-1 homerun every 15.5 at bats

11. Mickey Mantle-1 homerun every 15.81 at bats

12. Mike Schmidt-1 homerun every 16.15 at bats

13. Frank Robinson-1 homerun every 16.16 at bats

14. Ken Griffey Jr.-1 homerun every 16.95 at bats

15. Reggie Jackson-1 homerun every 17.27 at bats

16. Ernie Banks-1 homerun every 17.32 at bats

17. Mel Ott-1 homerun every 18.77 at bats

18. Hank Aaron-1 homerun every 18.78 at bats

19. Eddie Murray-1 homerun every 20.46 at bats

20. Barry Bonds-1 homerun every 21.9 at bats

21. Sammy Sosa-1 homerun every 21.99 at bats

22. Rafael Palmeiro-1 homerun every 36.47 at bats

 

Career Homeruns at Age 30

 

1. 438 homeruns-Ken Griffey Jr.

2. 430 homeruns-Alex Rodriguez

3. 429 homeruns-Jimmie Foxx

4. 404 homeruns-Mickey Mantle

5. 399 homeruns-Eddie Matthews

6. 373 homeruns-Frank Robinson

7. 369 homeruns-Mel Ott

8. 366 homeruns-Hank Aaron

9. 336 homeruns-Harmon Killebrew (tie)

9. 336 homeruns-Sammy Sosa (tie)

10. 319 homeruns-Willie Mays

11. 309 homeruns-Babe Ruth

12. 298 homeruns-Ernie Banks

13. 292 homeruns-Barry Bonds

14. 283 homeruns-Mike Schmidt

15. 281 homeruns-Reggie Jackson

16. 275 homeruns-Eddie Murray

17. 268 homeruns-Willie McCovey

18. 265 homeruns-Ted Williams

19. 238 homeruns-Mark McGwire

20. 194 homeruns-Rafael Palmeiro

 

 

1 Homerun Per # of At BAts, Age30

 

1. Babe Ruth-1 homerun every 12.69 at bats

2. Harmon Killebrew-1 homerun every 13.09 at bats

3. Mark McGwire-1 homerun every 14.04 at bats

4. Jimmie Foxx-1 homerun every 14.26 at bats

5. Alex Rodriguez-1 homerun every 14.4 at bats

6. Ken Griffey Jr.-1 homerun every 14.5 at bats

7. Mickey Mantle-1 homerun every 14.59 at bats

8. Willie McCovey-1 homerun every 14.77 at bats

9. Eddie Matthews-1 homerun every 15.04 at bats

10. Mike Schmidt-1 homerun every 15.06 at bats

11. Ernie Banks-1 homerun every 15.67 at bats

12. Sammy Sosa-1 homerun every 15.74 at bats

13. Ted Williams-1 homeruns every 15.93 at bats

14. Frank Robinson-1 homerun every 16.36 at bats

15. Willie Mays-1 homerun every 16.43 at bats

16. Barry Bonds-1 homerun every 17.19 at bats

17. Reggie Jackson-1 homerun every 17.25 at bats

18. Mel Ott-1 homerun every 17.73 at bats

19. Hank Aaron-1 homerun every 17.78 at bats

20. Eddie Murray-1 homerun every 20.45 at bats

21. Rafael Palmeiro-1 homerun every 25.04 at bats

 

Career Homeruns at Age 36

 

1. 611 homeruns-Babe Ruth

2. 592 homeruns-Hank Aaron

3. 588 homeruns-Sammy Sosa

4. 567 homeruns-Barry Bonds

5. 564 homeruns-Willie Mays

6. 554 homeruns-Mark McGwire

7. 541 homeruns-Harmon Killebrew

8. 537 homeruns-Ken Griffey Jr.

9. 536 homeruns-Mickey Mantle

10. 527 homeruns-Jimmie Fox

11. 522 homeruns-Frank Robinson

12. 512 homeruns-Eddie Matthews

13. 510 homeruns-Mel Ott

14. 495 homeruns-Mike Schmidt

15. 464 homeruns-Reggie Jackson

16. 447 homeruns-Rafael Palmeiro

17. 442 homeruns-Ernie Banks

18. 435 homeruns-Willie McCovey

19. 414 homeruns-Eddie Murray

20. 394 homeruns-Ted Williams

 

 

1 Homerun Per # of At Bats,Age 36

 

1. Mark McGwire-1 homerun every 10.63 at bats

2. Babe Ruth-1 homerun every 11.53 at bats

3. Harmon Killebrew-1 homerun every 13.41 at bats

4. Barry Bonds-1 homerun every 13.98 at bats

5. Sammy Sosa-1 homerun every 14.29 at bats

6. Willie McCovey-1 homerun every 14.4 at bats

7. Ken Griffey Jr.-1 homerun every 14.67 at bats

8. Mike Schmidt-1 homerun every 14.73 at bats

9. Ted Williams-1 homerun every 14.96 at bats

10. Jimmie Foxx-1 homerun every 15.01 at bats

11. Mickey Mantle-1 homerun every 15.12 at bats

12. Willie Mays-1 homerun every 15.3 at bats

13. Reggie Jackson-1 homerun every 16.65 at bats

14. Eddie Matthews-1 homerun every 16.67 at bats

15. Hank Aaron-1 homerun every 16.81 at bats

16. Frank Robinson-1 homerun every 16.88 at bats

17. Ernie Banks-1 homerun every 18.1 at bats

18. Mel Ott-1 homerun every 18.4 at bats

19. Rafael Palmeiro-1 homerun every 18.89 at bats

20. Eddie Murray-1 homerun every 22.04 at bats

 

Career Homeruns at Age 40/41

 

1. 745 homeruns-Hank Aaron

2. 714 homeruns-Babe Ruth

3. 708 homeruns-Barry Bonds

4. 654 homeruns-Willie Mays

5. 586 homeruns-Frank Robinson

6. 569 homeruns-Rafael Palmeiro

7. 563 homeruns-Reggie Jackson

8. 521 homeruns-Ted Williams

9. 520 homeruns-Willie McCovey

10. 512 homeruns-Ernie Banks

11. 504 homeruns-Eddie Murray

 

 

1 Homerun Per # of At Bats, Age 40/41

 

1. Babe Ruth-1 homerun every 11.76 at bats

2. Barry Bonds-1 homerun every 12.91 at bats

3. Ted Williams-1 homerun every 14.79 at bats

4. Willie McCovey-1 homerun every 15.55 at bats

5. Willie Mays-1 homerun every 16.32 at bats

6. Hank Aaron-1 homerun every 16.6 at bats

7. Frank Robinson-1 homerun every 17.08 at bats

8. Reggie Jackson-1 homerun every 17.52 at bats

9. Ernie Banks-1 homerun every 18.4 at bats (tie)

9. Rafael Palmeiro-1 homerun every 18.4 at bats (tie)

10 Eddie Murray-1 homerun every 22.49 at bats

 

1 Homerun Per # of At Bats, Career

 

1. Mark McGwire-1 homerun every 10.61 at bats

2. Babe Ruth-1 homerun every 11.76 at bats

3. Barry Bonds-1 homerun every 12.91 at bats

4. Harmon Killebrew-1 homerun every 14.22 at bats

5. Sammy Sosa-1 homerun every 14.29 at bats

6. Adam Dunn-1 homerun every 14.32 at bats

7. Alex Rodriguez-1 homerun every 14.4 at bats

8. Albert Pujols-1 homerun every 14.5 at bats

9. Reggie Jackson-1 homerun every 14.52 at bats

10. Ken Griffey Jr.-1 homerun every 14.67 at bats

11. Ted Williams-1 homerun every 14.79 at bats

12. Mickey Mantle-1 homerun every 15.12 at bats

13. Jimmie Foxx-1 homerun every 15.23 at bats

14. Mike Schmidt-1 homerun every 15.24 at bats

15. Willie McCovey-1 homerun every 15.73 at bats

16. Hank Aaron-1 homerun every 16.38 at bats

17. Willie Mays-1 homerun every 16.49 at bats

18. Eddie Matthews-1 homerun every 16.67 at bats

19. Frank Robinson-1 homerun every 17.08 at bats

20. Reggie Jackson-1 homerun every 17.52 at bats

21. Ernie Banks-1 homerun every 18.4 at bats (tie)

21. Rafael Palmeiro-1 homerun every 18.4 at bats (tie)

22. Mel Ott-1 homerun every 18.5 at bats

23. Eddie Murray-1 homerun every 22.49 at bats

 

I was wrong, McGwire ended his career a more prolific power hitter than the Babe. That's just sick having one homerun practically every 11 times at bat.

 

I'm impressed at the level of consistency by Ruth and Killebrew over their careers.

 

The improvements made by Bonds, Palmeiro and Sosa as they advanced through their careers is simply astounding. Chemically astounding I mean.

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