Dunno how many here will be interested in this but:

 

xFIP is an interesting stat that tries to normalize HR/FB numbers as well as taking park into account. Because of this, it should do a better job of matching future results than FIP does. Basically, it does what I did with the post about Lindstrom's HR rates. League average is 10%, and it's normally in a 8.5-12.5% range. Since, afaik, xFIP doesn't take past history into account, it should be a little off since it likely rates off 10% though not sure. Available at Hardball Times.

 

Notables from last year:

 

Lindstrom-

xFIP: 4.24

FIP: 3.13

ERA: 3.14

HR/FB: 2.4%

 

Andrew Miller-

xFIP: 4.63

FIP: 3.96

ERA: 6.54

HR/FB: 7.6%

Bolding for emphasis since a big deal was made out of his FIP by a lot of people, myself included. So kinda ehh to that, never noticed his HR/FB earlier.

 

Badenhop-

xFIP: 4.47

FIP: 5.10

ERA: 6.08

HR/FB: 18.7%

Yeah, likely not going to repeat that HR/FB lol. He should still be in the upper-tier of HR/FB though do to his lack of stuff and still be around a 5 FIP.

 

Anibal-

xFIP: 4.54

FIP: 4.83

ERA: 5.57

HR/FB: 17%

 

Leo Nunez-

xFIP: 5.15

FIP: 3.75

ERA: 2.98

HR/FB: 4.2%

 

Volstad

xFIP: 4.77

FIP: 3.75

ERA: 2.88

HR/FB: 4.7%

Like Andrew, I never actually paid attention to his HR/FB, so this basically explains why projections are so hard on Volstad and can't really blame them. But his GB rates should hopefully improve (58% in the minors, just 52.6% in the majors), and his control should improve aswell considering how good it was in the minors. Give him a 58% GB rate (which would be a 0.65 HR/9), a 2.7 BB rate, and a 5.5 K rate, we're talking about a 3.82 FIP, then keeping in mind that FIP is generally over for GB pitchers since it doesn't take other XBHs into account, and yeah, I think we're good here.

You make me feel stupid.

 

(That's a compliment)

So what kind of ERA would you expect from Nunez over a good sample then? 4.5? 5?

Also, I wonder if the HR% for the league as a whole will go down a bit as steroids become less prevalent. I'm not sure where to find those totals, and 2-3 doesn't make an absolute trend, but I'm curious.

Nunez's strikeouts were way down last year (just 4.8 per 9) and I expect that to be back up to the mid-7 range, which would put him around a upper-3 to low-4 FIP. If he keeps striking out at at this rate though (1 per inn) he'd be in the mid 3's.