I think 40 innings and almost a full run in ERA is a huge difference.

 

I can concede, if Johnson is like top 2 in the Cy Young, All star, gets over 20 wins, loses 5, whiffs 200, saves a child from a burning skybox, has a sub 2.50 era, and pitches an ungodly 240 innings, he gets to $7. This is a very unlikely scenario, and it's rather baffling you expect him to keep this pace. What's realistic is like, 220 IP, 16-8, 170 K, 2.80 era. This is an amazing year. And worth $5 million in arbitration.

 

So after all of that in the end we agree in that if he keeps up his pace he gets $7 million. But what's baffling to me is that you bash me for me expecting him to keep his pace when I've never opined on whether he'll keep his pace or not. Argue with me over what I said, not over what I didn't say. I guess I shouldn't have answered the hypothetical question!

I think 40 innings and almost a full run in ERA is a huge difference.

 

I can concede, if Johnson is like top 2 in the Cy Young, All star, gets over 20 wins, loses 5, whiffs 200, saves a child from a burning skybox, has a sub 2.50 era, and pitches an ungodly 240 innings, he gets to $7. This is a very unlikely scenario, and it's rather baffling you expect him to keep this pace. What's realistic is like, 220 IP, 16-8, 170 K, 2.80 era. This is an amazing year. And worth $5 million in arbitration.

 

So after all of that in the end we agree in that if he keeps up his pace he gets $7 million. But what's baffling to me is that you bash me for me expecting him to keep his pace when I've never opined on whether he'll keep his pace or not. Argue with me over what I said, not over what I didn't say. I guess I shouldn't have answered the hypothetical question!

Well, this started because you said "My guess is he could pull-off $7.5 million next year" and that because of that you don't think a long term deal is likely.

I think 40 innings and almost a full run in ERA is a huge difference.

 

I can concede, if Johnson is like top 2 in the Cy Young, All star, gets over 20 wins, loses 5, whiffs 200, saves a child from a burning skybox, has a sub 2.50 era, and pitches an ungodly 240 innings, he gets to $7. This is a very unlikely scenario, and it's rather baffling you expect him to keep this pace. What's realistic is like, 220 IP, 16-8, 170 K, 2.80 era. This is an amazing year. And worth $5 million in arbitration.

 

So after all of that in the end we agree in that if he keeps up his pace he gets $7 million. But what's baffling to me is that you bash me for me expecting him to keep his pace when I've never opined on whether he'll keep his pace or not. Argue with me over what I said, not over what I didn't say. I guess I shouldn't have answered the hypothetical question!

Oh please. You have been arguing this way to long to try and fall back on some bogus statement like this. All of your statements align yourself with "JJ is getting $7." Don't even try and pull this. In a 100% best-case scenario where Johnson has one of the best years of any SP in the last decade, he may be able to break the $7 million threshold. Sure, great. This isn't definitive like you're saying. It is highly speculative and unlikely, and the responsible and rational approach is to expect some regression over the second half of the year which greats a normal arbitration number.

JJ's only reason to sign one would be to protect him financially in case of injury. If he has to be healthy anyways there is no reason for him to not just wait for FA.

 

There is a huge reason for him not to wait for FA. Future performance and money is speculative. Johnson has made about $2.5 million in MLB so far, and he'll get around $5 million next year if all that happens is a 1 year arbitration tender. That's a lot of money, but not stupid money to live off like a baller forever. JJ can set himself up for life by accepting a 4-6 year contract with the Marlins for a guaranteed $45-75 million dollars after this season. It would be mindboggling if he decided, "im going to take $5 million in 2010 because I think I can make more in the 2011 offseason." He's had a tommy john, he's also a pitcher where your next throw can be your last. The money he can command in a 4-6 year contract is substantial enough for him to 'sacrifice' 2-3 free agency years (and by sacrifice, I mean make $14 million and not $20 million. poor baby), versus hoping everything goes perfect in 2010 and 2011 for that massive payday. He'll still be 30 years old when a hypothetical deal with the Marlins are up, so he'd still have the opportunity for a silly Zito/CC deal if he keeps it up. It's really in his best interest to sign a contract right now.

 

One simple rule in life, take the money when it's in front of you. You don't know what's around the corner. He's not in the financial position as a person to walk away from a longterm deal and pray arbitration works out. Way to risky. The Marlins have him in a great spot. I'm 100% confident the two sides work out a 4-6 year contract after this season, and Hanley and Johnson become our cornerstone players for the new ballpark.

JJ's only reason to sign one would be to protect him financially in case of injury. If he has to be healthy anyways there is no reason for him to not just wait for FA.

 

There is a huge reason for him not to wait for FA. Future performance and money is speculative. Johnson has made about $2.5 million in MLB so far, and he'll get around $5 million next year if all that happens is a 1 year arbitration tender. That's a lot of money, but not stupid money to live off like a baller forever. JJ can set himself up for life by accepting a 4-6 year contract with the Marlins for a guaranteed $45-75 million dollars after this season. It would be mindboggling if he decided, "im going to take $5 million in 2010 because I think I can make more in the 2011 offseason." He's had a tommy john, he's also a pitcher where your next throw can be your last. The money he can command in a 4-6 year contract is substantial enough for him to 'sacrifice' 2-3 free agency years (and by sacrifice, I mean make $14 million and not $20 million. poor baby), versus hoping everything goes perfect in 2010 and 2011 for that massive payday. He'll still be 30 years old when a hypothetical deal with the Marlins are up, so he'd still have the opportunity for a silly Zito/CC deal if he keeps it up. It's really in his best interest to sign a contract right now.

 

One simple rule in life, take the money when it's in front of you. You don't know what's around the corner. He's not in the financial position as a person to walk away from a longterm deal and pray arbitration works out. Way to risky. The Marlins have him in a great spot. I'm 100% confident the two sides work out a 4-6 year contract after this season, and Hanley and Johnson become our cornerstone players for the new ballpark.

Right, that's what I was saying.

 

BroncoBob stated that there might be something like a "health/performance initiative" in any deal with him. My point was that, if that were true, why would he even sign? The reason for him to sign is for financial security in case something goes wrong, he wouldn't sign a deal that would get him less money if all goes right and bail out the Marlins if all goes wrong.

BroncoBob stated that there might be something like a "health/performance initiative" in any deal with him. My point was that, if that were true, why would he even sign? The reason for him to sign is for financial security in case something goes wrong, he wouldn't sign a deal that would get him less money if all goes right and bail out the Marlins if all goes wrong.

 

For sure, the money would mostly have to be guaranteed. Just like every other baseball contract.

 

The only health/performance thing would be if Johnson pitches X innings in years prior, an automatic option kicks in versus a club option. Or, a performance incentive for reaching X innings in a season(s). Those things though aren't the material aspects of the contract though. Those are the perks.

One potential problem with putting together a deal is that apparently the insurers who write disability coverage for clubs have pulled in their horns on duration. Where previously they would routinely write 5 years or 7 years (or longer) of 70% coverage, 3 years has become the limit.

 

As the Marlins are already disinclined to sign pitchers to long-term deals, I wouldn't be surprised if they limit any deal with JJ to whatever time period they can buy coverage for. It'll be interesting to see what, if anything, is ultimately put together.

I think 40 innings and almost a full run in ERA is a huge difference.

 

I can concede, if Johnson is like top 2 in the Cy Young, All star, gets over 20 wins, loses 5, whiffs 200, saves a child from a burning skybox, has a sub 2.50 era, and pitches an ungodly 240 innings, he gets to $7. This is a very unlikely scenario, and it's rather baffling you expect him to keep this pace. What's realistic is like, 220 IP, 16-8, 170 K, 2.80 era. This is an amazing year. And worth $5 million in arbitration.

 

So after all of that in the end we agree in that if he keeps up his pace he gets $7 million. But what's baffling to me is that you bash me for me expecting him to keep his pace when I've never opined on whether he'll keep his pace or not. Argue with me over what I said, not over what I didn't say. I guess I shouldn't have answered the hypothetical question!

Oh please. You have been arguing this way to long to try and fall back on some bogus statement like this. All of your statements align yourself with "JJ is getting $7." Don't even try and pull this. In a 100% best-case scenario where Johnson has one of the best years of any SP in the last decade, he may be able to break the $7 million threshold. Sure, great. This isn't definitive like you're saying. It is highly speculative and unlikely, and the responsible and rational approach is to expect some regression over the second half of the year which greats a normal arbitration number.

I've used the $7 million figure in the past because I'm aware that even if his performance regresses he can still get $7 million. The high-end of the market for a 2nd year arbitration pitcher was set by Zambrano when he made $6.5 million based on a platform season of (223 IP + a 3.26 ERA). JJ is on pace to blow away (223 IP + a 3.26 ERA). Even if he ends up with (220 IP + a 3.00 ERA) he'll get $7 million.

I think 40 innings and almost a full run in ERA is a huge difference.

 

I can concede, if Johnson is like top 2 in the Cy Young, All star, gets over 20 wins, loses 5, whiffs 200, saves a child from a burning skybox, has a sub 2.50 era, and pitches an ungodly 240 innings, he gets to $7. This is a very unlikely scenario, and it's rather baffling you expect him to keep this pace. What's realistic is like, 220 IP, 16-8, 170 K, 2.80 era. This is an amazing year. And worth $5 million in arbitration.

 

So after all of that in the end we agree in that if he keeps up his pace he gets $7 million. But what's baffling to me is that you bash me for me expecting him to keep his pace when I've never opined on whether he'll keep his pace or not. Argue with me over what I said, not over what I didn't say. I guess I shouldn't have answered the hypothetical question!

Oh please. You have been arguing this way to long to try and fall back on some bogus statement like this. All of your statements align yourself with "JJ is getting $7." Don't even try and pull this. In a 100% best-case scenario where Johnson has one of the best years of any SP in the last decade, he may be able to break the $7 million threshold. Sure, great. This isn't definitive like you're saying. It is highly speculative and unlikely, and the responsible and rational approach is to expect some regression over the second half of the year which greats a normal arbitration number.

I've used the $7 million figure in the past because I'm aware that even if his performance regresses he can still get $7 million. The high-end of the market for a 2nd year arbitration pitcher was set by Zambrano when he made $6.5 million based on a platform season of (223 IP + a 3.26 ERA). JJ is on pace to blow away (223 IP + a 3.26 ERA). Even if he ends up with (220 IP + a 3.00 ERA) he'll get $7 million.

Big difference in that that was a 2.74M raise for Zambrano and that would be a 5.6M raise for JJ.

Not really. Big raises are there for exceptional performance.