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What are the chances the Marlins give him a long term deal and, assuming JJ remains consistent the rest of the season, what would be his estimated salary for next season?

I think the chances are low because MLB has proven that giving big money to pitchers is MUCH more risky than giving it to hitters. The rate of injury and guys breaking down is high and the Marlins have often played this to their advantage.

 

I do think they may stray from their norm and try to lock him up on a Hanley-like deal but there is no guarantee that JJ would take it.

What are the chances the Marlins give him a long term deal and, assuming JJ remains consistent the rest of the season, what would be his estimated salary for next season?

 

My guess is he could pull-off $7.5 million next year. I don't like the chances of a long-term deal.

What are the chances the Marlins give him a long term deal and, assuming JJ remains consistent the rest of the season, what would be his estimated salary for next season?

 

My guess is he could pull-off $7.5 million next year. I don't like the chances of a long-term deal.

 

A few of my friends have told me that other teams have expressed interest in JJ... =/

What are the chances the Marlins give him a long term deal and, assuming JJ remains consistent the rest of the season, what would be his estimated salary for next season?

 

My guess is he could pull-off $7.5 million next year. I don't like the chances of a long-term deal.

JJ's playing time, 18 starts 2007-2008, is really going to hurt him even if he continues this Cy Young season. For an example of seeing how much this effects salary, look at Francouer, who has not played as well as Hermida and Ross in his career, who is making $3.3 million this year compared to Hermida and Ross who are each making $2.2. That extra million bucks (approx. 30% value of the contract), is literally from all the AB Francouer sucked up as Atlanta simply played him nonstop and he never got hurt.

 

Looking at JJ, he is making $1.4 million this year. With the year he is having, he may be able to get this to $5 million in 5th year arbitration after the season, but that lack of playing time is really going to keep him down (for this arbitration anyways) from getting some outrageous number

 

Greinke $3.75 < - Post 2008

Wainwright $4.65

Peavy $4.75

Lester $5.75 < - Post 2008

Kazmir $6

Willis $7 (qualified for super 2 though, so this isn't a very fair comparison)

 

I love the Greinke comparable as he had "injury"/playing time issues throughout his first few years (14 GS 2007, 32 2008; Johnson 14 GS 2008, currently 15 2009), that resembles Johnson's current "playing time" path very closely. Lester had a half season (kind of like Volstad last year), so he got slotted a bit higher up. I would say Greinke is the Johnson comparable, and Lester is the Volstad comparable basically.

 

So we look at Greinke. Last year 13 wins, 3.47 era, 1.28 whip, 183K. Awesome Year. Johnson's current rates are 7 wins, 2.66 era, 1.05 whip, and 88K. How much more is that worth? Let's assume JJ relatively keeps it up, 15 wins, sub 3, whiptastic. I'd say $5 million. He can get over Wainwright and Peavy probably, but he's not going to get to Lester/Kazmir/Willis level, as those guys had much more "playing time."

 

So the rest of the Greinke deal 09:$3.75M, 10:$7.25M, 11:$13.5M, 12:$13.5M (with some limited no-trade protection, no signing bonus). This is a really nice blueprint to slot Johnson.

 

If I'm the Marlins, I offer something resembling this. I want him for 5 years minimum.

 

2010 - $5

2011 - $8

2012 - $14

2013 - $15

2014 - $16

2015 - $17 option, $2 buyout

 

5/$60 or 6/$75

 

He'd be a free agent again at 30/31 to get another huge payday so that works for Johnson's longterm earning potential, and it slots him well above basically every other SP. Major arm surgery, playing time to hurt him in arbitration. It's in JJ's best interest to take a deal like this to lock himself up for life. Especially after a peak year, and this hypothetical contract does respect that.

 

This is going to happen. I'm not worried at all about this one.

Another example maybe better than the Francouer one.

 

Scott Olsen $2.8 million (2007 176 IP, 2008 201 IP)

Ricky Nolasco $2.4 million (2007 21 IP, 212 IP)

 

This is after Nolasco was pretty much the best pitcher in the national league for three months and obliterated Olsen on the stats. Scott gets more in arb because he has pitched more in their career. I wouldn't necessarily say "stats" are secondary to playing time, but there is certainly a strong secondary impact to arbitration figures based on amount of playing time.

What about his agent thinking he should get something in between AJ's contract and CC? I can't see us shelling out something close to a 100 mil to him. I could see the fish doing 5/60 but not much higher.

Last year or maybe two years ago I read an article that said that in a player's first arbitration year they look at both his career and his last season but in each subsequent arbitration year (such as JJ next season) they look primarily at his last season. So when he goes to arby this winter his CY type season will pretty much determine his salary and his injured plagued '07 and '08 seasons wont hurt him much. He can compare himself with Zambrano and will make a lot of money... upwards of $7 million.

Article:

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?Itemid=41&id=490&option=com_content&task=view

Last year or maybe two years ago I read an article that said that in a player's first arbitration year they look at both his career and his last season but in each subsequent arbitration year (such as JJ next season) they look primarily at his last season. So when he goes to arby this winter his CY type season will pretty much determine his salary and his injured plagued '07 and '08 seasons wont hurt him much. He can compare himself with Zambrano and will make a lot of money... upwards of $7 million.

 

I've already explained away the playing time with Nolasco/Olsen and Francouer/Hermida/Ross, and if you want to argue post arbitration Greinke's deal kills you. Either way, your critique is distinguished.

 

Johnson is worth around 5/$60, give or take a few million, this offseason (If I was JJ's agent, I would shoot for a 4 year deal though, but that is another story all together). Post 2010, would be the salary explosion. Marlins have a ton of leverage right now having him for 2 arb years and coming off a partial season, despite JJ's so far exquisite 2009 season.

What about his agent thinking he should get something in between AJ's contract and CC? I can't see us shelling out something close to a 100 mil to him. I could see the fish doing 5/60 but not much higher.

 

 

Think the Marlins would offer Johnson a five-year deal totaling $82.5 million, the one Saturday's loser, A.J. Burnett, struck with the Yankees over the winter? Or a seven-year deal worth $161 million, the contract Sunday's starter, C.C. Sabathia, signed before the season?

 

Johnson's agent, Matt Sosnick, thinks that is what it will take to keep Johnson.

 

''The way that I think Josh needs to be valued is somewhere between Burnett's contract and Sabathia's contract, and probably closer to Sabathia's,'' Sosnick said Saturday. ``Josh is that guy in two years.''

 

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/story/1108059.html

I skipped through most of your post because it was too long and was not relevant to the issue on hand... JJ's 2010 salary.

 

It seems to me the comment about how JJ's 2010 salary will be based almost exclusively on his '09 season was not understood.

What about his agent thinking he should get something in between AJ's contract and CC? I can't see us shelling out something close to a 100 mil to him. I could see the fish doing 5/60 but not much higher.

 

 

Think the Marlins would offer Johnson a five-year deal totaling $82.5 million, the one Saturday's loser, A.J. Burnett, struck with the Yankees over the winter? Or a seven-year deal worth $161 million, the contract Sunday's starter, C.C. Sabathia, signed before the season?

 

Johnson's agent, Matt Sosnick, thinks that is what it will take to keep Johnson.

 

''The way that I think Josh needs to be valued is somewhere between Burnett's contract and Sabathia's contract, and probably closer to Sabathia's,'' Sosnick said Saturday. ``Josh is that guy in two years.''

 

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/story/1108059.html

Good thing it's not post 2011 so AJ and CC don't apply to Johnson.

I skipped through most of your post because it was too long and was not relevant to the issue on hand... JJ's 2010 salary.

 

It seems to me the comment about how JJ's 2010 salary will be based almost exclusively on his '09 season was not understood.

 

You are unbelievable.

 

Zack Greinke rhp

4 years/$38M (2009-12)

09:$3.75M, 10:$7.25M

 

Please explain to me how Johnson is going to double Greinke's salary, despite JJ's year. You literally have no idea what you are talking about.

I'm assuming JJ's agent is not retarded and will use the most favorable comps to make his case.

I'm assuming JJ's agent is not retarded and will use the most favorable comps to make his case.

 

And what comps are those?

I'm assuming JJ's agent is not retarded and will use the most favorable comps to make his case.

 

 

I'm sure he'll do all he can in that regard, but there's almost a 300 IP gap between the two in their first three seasons. It'll be hard for JJ to top the 220 IP in his fourth season for Zambrano, and JJ's contract isn't even close to Zambrano's in their fourth season. It'd be very difficult to make a case that he should jump some $4 mil given his injury history.

I'm assuming JJ's agent is not retarded and will use the most favorable comps to make his case.

 

He can do whatever he wants, but it's not like you can ignore Greinke who is dead spot on with playing time. Which does matter despite whatever article you want to post. They are crazy identical, JJ is just going to have a better era/whip. That's not worth near double the contract. Secondly, I am still running under the assumption JJ is going to have a high 2, low 3 era. Basically a half to 3/4ths a run better than Greinke. JJ isn't going to out slot him with W and K very much, the only real significant gap is going to be that era. Currently he is under 2.00. If he does that all year, I can agree with you then all bets are off if he pitches 220 IP at a 1.80 era or whatever. But I do find that unlikely and expect a normal rise. Which is realistic.

 

--

 

Rabb, the best comps are Greinke, Wainwright, Lester, Carmona ($4.9 year 5), and Hamels (more appropriate than Zambrano, and the current high end $6.6) as they are the most recent contracts. Other notables would be stuff like Cain, C. Lee, and Haren.

 

All of it does not suggest a $7 million figure. JJ does not have Hamels career. If he had 30 starts in 2008, I would agree 100%. But this still matters, even if it's devalued compared to 4th year arbitration with Polo suggests. But the contracts being signed don't really show that, so make your own determination on that.

 

I'm sticking to my guns the Marlins sign Johnson somewhere for 4-6 years (including options), for something like 4/$45 (5-8-14-16-18option/2buyout), 5/$60, 6/$75. All of those are very very reasonable deals for where JJ is in his career.

You have to admire that Polo will always be the first one to admit he hasn't read something and yet will continue arguing against you.

You have to admire that Polo will always be the first one to admit he hasn't read something and yet will continue arguing against you.

 

Why would I keep reading something that's not relevant to the issue being discussed?

I'm assuming JJ's agent is not retarded and will use the most favorable comps to make his case.

 

And what comps are those?

Zambrano.

:banghead

You have to admire that Polo will always be the first one to admit he hasn't read something and yet will continue arguing against you.

 

Why would I keep reading something that's not relevant to the issue being discussed?

 

This isn't the first time you've done that, but how is Looking at JJ, he is making $1.4 million this year. With the year he is having, he may be able to get this to $5 million in 5th year arbitration after the season, but that lack of playing time is really going to keep him down (for this arbitration anyways) from getting some outrageous number

not relevant to the issue being discussed?

I'm assuming JJ's agent is not retarded and will use the most favorable comps to make his case.

 

And what comps are those?

Zambrano.

Not really a great comparison. The biggest thing that will knock his price down is that we're still waiting for his first completely injury free season. At the end of this season, if he stays healthy, he'll still only have ~500 innings in his career. Zambrano at this point had 763.