But there are examples of players signing in this time frame, and they generally do so for below market value.

 

And while the gap is disproportionate, I think you're really undervaluing how much long-term security matters, especially to a guy who has had the career Anibal has.

 

There aren't many comps for him. There are a few that work, but it's tough to find. That's not because these situations never arise, but because his career path is very unique.

I think at $40MM he might do it but not 30 (and I think you might have even said 27 before that).

 

I think his market value is probably 4/52, or something around there if he was a free agent right now. I don't think he gets $15 million per year and I don't think he gets 5 years.

 

The reason I think 3/40 is a bargain is because, while it's essentially his market value on a per-year basis, it's only a three-year commitment from the team's perspective, which is a huge deal.

52 really isn't that far off from 60 though. I don't think he actually gets the Danks treatment (I agree that 5 years is not likely), but I think he could get the Buehrle treatment (58).

 

So yeah, the Marlins probably save 20 million-ish (not 30), but you have to be certain that his shoulder holds up and I get the feeling that the Marlins aren't too sure about that.

Well, whether the Marlins may be reluctant isn't the question being posed, it's simply whether they should. I think if Anibal is willing to sign for '13-'15 for $36-40 million, you do it right now. Whether the Marlins will or not is another story entirely.

Well, whether the Marlins may be reluctant isn't the question being posed, it's simply whether they should. I think if Anibal is willing to sign for '13-'15 for $36-40 million, you do it right now. Whether the Marlins will or not is another story entirely.

 

I'm saying that at 40 (not 27 or 30 as you originally proposed), the Marlins shouldn't sign him now because of injury risk. That appears to be the course of action they are taking and I agree with them.