While not strictly one-to-one in that he's been more durable than Anibal and is a bit older, Buehrle has been a non-flashy and underrated arm. He's only received Cy Young votes once in his career. The Marlins and other teams were in hot pursuit of him and he ended up getting just short of $60 million. Weren't half of the MLB teams rumored to be interested in him at one point?

There are plenty of other factors that go into that, however, as left-handed starters who have proven durable are going to go for a premium.

 

I don't think an argument can be made that Beurhle is underrated at all. He may have only received Cy Young votes once, but he's a four-time All Star. I don't think that comparison really works.

 

Look at Oliver Perez in 2008. 3/36 with two healthy seasons under his belt. He wasn't as good as Anibal overall, but is that gap worth an extra year and $24 million?

I get what Bobbob is saying.

 

Certain players do have a poor perception on them. As advanced as the stats have gotten, there are still plenty of old-school GM's/organizations.

 

Anibal's fancy, big money standard stats aren't amazing. Career 39-38, 3.72 ERA. It's not the most advanced way to look at things, but teams still do it this way. It's the same thing with stuff like experience and saves.

 

Buehrle's perception is different because he's left-handed, gives consistent year-to-year inning totals, and he's a "winner." Even Beinfest today when talking to Tommy Hutton said the main reason they signed Buehrle was because "bottom line is, he's a winner."

 

Anibal is more Edwin Jackson and won't be viewed as a guy anywhere near the same tier as Grienke, Hamels, Cain, etc.

 

Not to mention his history with injuries/durability concerns.

I don't see how you can rationalize him taking $30 million now--that sounds pretty lowball to me. I bet he could get around $60MM as a free agent next year and he realizes that. There is a trade-off by waiting another year for security.

 

On top of that, the Marlins also need to see how Johnson's health pans out. It's not out of the question that he has arm troubles this year again. If he does, he's probably not likely to be part of the team's future.

 

 

I think $60 million is a lot to say he's going to get next offseason.

 

Over the last three seasons only Yu Darvish, Mark Beurhle, CJ Wilson, John Lackey and Cliff Lee have gotten comparable or more money.

 

Those contracts don't get handed out to pitchers very often.

 

I think something like 4/50 would be about right for him next offseason, assuming he doesn't suffer a setback or fall off.

 

However Anibal and his agent know that there is a big risk to waiting a year, so if they're offered a deal that essentially pays him 4/$38 right now, I think they take the added security right now.

 

If you'd rather go with 3/36 or something, fine. It's not really a huge difference. And I'd still do that contract tomorrow, and so would Anibal.

My question is this. Given that he didn't have the injury problems Anibal had (although now he does), if Lackey at 30 with ERAs of 3.83, 3.75 and 3.01 in 07, 08, and 09 can get 5/82.5 (which is 16.5 a year) two years ago, why can't Anibal at 28 with ERAs of 3.67 and 3.55 and higher K totals than Lackey get at least 50 mil with another solid season this year? Because the fans don't view him as a great pitcher? Please.

Anibal is much closer to his prime than Buehrle is. That should also work in his favor. No comparison is going to be exact. Not to mention that 4 ASG appearances (one of those selections made by Guillen in a not so great performance year) over a long career isn't really that spectacular.

 

The Oliver Perez comparison is pretty bad, though, considering how much he sucked in 2005 and 2006. Contracts have also inflated since 2008.

 

This perception stuff sounds really bogus to me when Anibal hasn't even hit the market, which means that it has no rational/measurable grounding to it. It seems like the argument hinges on the fact that Marlins fans underrate him. His numbers (assuming his 2010-2011 trend continues into 2012) unquestionably put him in the $60MM range as a free agent.

 

I still stand by the Danks example. Nothing fancy about him, but he gets handed $65MM. The fact that he wasn't a free agent makes no difference.

Furthermore, I don't think that teams are as dumb as you guys think. If there is any perception that matters, it's that pitchers who have put up multiple 5.00 ERA seasons get a stigma attached to them. I think that's what hurts guys like Oliver Perez and Edwin Jackson in terms of price.

 

Anibal hasn't really had any horrendous stints when he's been healthy. Three seasons of 3.50-ish ERA will look pretty enticing to clubs.

Anibal is much closer to his prime than Buehrle is. That should also work in his favor. No comparison is going to be exact. Not to mention that 4 ASG appearances (one of those selections made by Guillen in a not so great performance year) over a long career isn't really that spectacular.

 

The Oliver Perez comparison is pretty bad, though, considering how much he sucked in 2005 and 2006. Contracts have also inflated since 2008.

 

This perception stuff sounds really bogus to me when Anibal hasn't even hit the market, which means that it has no definable grounding to it. It seems like the argument hinges on the fact that Marlins fans underrate him. His numbers (assuming his 2010-2011 trend continues into 2012) unquestionably put him in the $60MM range as a free agent.

 

I still stand by the Danks example. Nothing fancy about him, but he gets handed $65MM. The fact that he wasn't a free agent makes no difference.

 

Another example is Derek Lowe who got $60 mil in '09 after 3.63, 3.88, 3.24 years. Solid, sure. But he's not a flashy pitcher at all. And like you said, this is three years ago.

What about the Mariners giving $48 million to Carlos Silva before 2008? Silva went 4.21, 3.44, 5.94, 4.19 from 2004-2007.

The lack of quality arms in the minors frightens me. Sign him now.

I still stand by the Danks example. Nothing fancy about him, but he gets handed $65MM. The fact that he wasn't a free agent makes no difference.

 

 

That's 65 million over 5 years. Considering Anibal's durability concerns, I don't see him getting 5 years to raise his total $ to 60+.

 

I don't see how you can rationalize him taking $30 million now--that sounds pretty lowball to me. I bet he could get around $60MM as a free agent next year and he realizes that. There is a trade-off by waiting another year for security.

 

On top of that, the Marlins also need to see how Johnson's health pans out. It's not out of the question that he has arm troubles this year again. If he does, he's probably not likely to be part of the team's future.

 

 

I think $60 million is a lot to say he's going to get next offseason.

 

Over the last three seasons only Yu Darvish, Mark Beurhle, CJ Wilson, John Lackey and Cliff Lee have gotten comparable or more money.

 

Those contracts don't get handed out to pitchers very often.

 

I think something like 4/50 would be about right for him next offseason, assuming he doesn't suffer a setback or fall off.

 

However Anibal and his agent know that there is a big risk to waiting a year, so if they're offered a deal that essentially pays him 4/$38 right now, I think they take the added security right now.

 

If you'd rather go with 3/36 or something, fine. It's not really a huge difference. And I'd still do that contract tomorrow, and so would Anibal.

My question is this. Given that he didn't have the injury problems Anibal had (although now he does), if Lackey at 30 with ERAs of 3.83, 3.75 and 3.01 in 07, 08, and 09 can get 5/82.5 (which is 16.5 a year) two years ago, why can't Anibal at 28 with ERAs of 3.67 and 3.55 and higher K totals than Lackey get at least 50 mil with another solid season this year? Because the fans don't view him as a great pitcher? Please.

 

Perception.

 

Before Lackey signed with Boston, he was widely viewed by the media as a workhorse who had been the Angels ace for years.

 

It's not just about the Marlins fanbase. Those stats about Anibal being a top-25 pitcher in many categories over the past couple of years...if you were to ask an analyst, do you think the majority view Anibal Sanchez as a top-25 pitcher? No.

 

Even your Derek Lowe example...he's always been overrated. He's pitched in every role throughout his career and is viewed as a gamer. As a veteran who eats up innings and gets a ton of groundballs.

 

There was an article on fangraphs the other day about this type of stuff; about half the teams in the big leagues still have somewhat of an old-school mentality in evaluating players.

 

Anibal would have to definitely improve his standard stats and stay healthy this year to get a long-term, Danks-like commitment. In terms of Danks, left-handers seem to always be valued more, for whatever reason.

What about the Mariners giving $48 million to Carlos Silva before 2008? Silva went 4.21, 3.44, 5.94, 4.19 from 2004-2007.

 

 

That was just a terrible contract.

 

Bill Bavasi had a history of dumbass moves, and he's already been fired. It's the reason why the Mariners have sucked for years now. Bad organizations makes bad moves.

Anibal is much closer to his prime than Buehrle is. That should also work in his favor. No comparison is going to be exact. Not to mention that 4 ASG appearances (one of those selections made by Guillen in a not so great performance year) over a long career isn't really that spectacular.

 

 

If 4 ASG appearances isn't spectacular, what is 0 ASG appearances?

 

That stuff matters, whether you want it to or not.

 

The Oliver Perez comparison is pretty bad, though, considering how much he sucked in 2005 and 2006. Contracts have also inflated since 2008.

 

Anibal was pretty terrible in 07-08 even when he wasn't hurt, so it's not like it's totally off base.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/salaries/avgsalaries

 

Average salary didn't go up that much from then. About 5%. Not a big factor.

 

There aren't many perfect comps for Anibal. There are examples of why he would get smaller years at a smaller price, and there are others that show the opposite. But none of them are perfect.

 

But my argument is that if we want to get value for him, the best way to do it would be signing him right now, when he would be more willing to sign for less.

 

Even if he is looking at a 5/60 million contract next offseason, that depends on him staying healthy and performing. He knows the risks, and would likely be willing to take a smaller contract to get security. Whether that means 3/30 or 3/36 or 3/40, it's likely to be a bargain, and he'll likely sign something like that.

If he's not signed, the Marlins will have to seek trades for starting pitching.

Of the guys listed in the OP, Brad Hand is the only one I'd have hopes for on improving by 2013. And it's unlikely that he'll be putting up Anibal-caliber #'s by then.

If we don't sign him, it's cause we're trying to get Hamels and Cain.

If 4 ASG appearances isn't spectacular, what is 0 ASG appearances?

 

That stuff matters, whether you want it to or not.

Over the course of 11 seasons for Buehrle (and one was Ozzie favoritism). If he were a perennial all-star it might be different.

 

I think it matters, but not to the extent you are implying.

 

Anibal was pretty terrible in 07-08 even when he wasn't hurt, so it's not like it's totally off base.

Those years are pretty much entirely clouded by injury. Remember that he was injured in spring training of 2007 with shoulder problems but pitched anyway. He basically spent the second half of 2008 recovering.

 

Those years are alarming because of the injury problems, but I don't see any legitimate performance concerns. That's way different than Oliver Perez just plain sucking.

 

But my argument is that if we want to get value for him, the best way to do it would be signing him right now, when he would be more willing to sign for less.

 

Even if he is looking at a 5/60 million contract next offseason, that depends on him staying healthy and performing. He knows the risks, and would likely be willing to take a smaller contract to get security. Whether that means 3/30 or 3/36 or 3/40, it's likely to be a bargain, and he'll likely sign something like that.

I agree that you would get him for less now, but I think that your estimate is at a level too low. I still don't understand why you are convinced that he'd take $30 million. Even if he only expects to make $50MM (which I think is low--but beside the point), don't you think he'd rather test the market under those circumstances? That's a pretty substantial difference in cash and I would imagine it would be hard to pass up unless he really feels like his shoulder is about to fall apart any second.

If we don't sign him, it's cause we're trying to get Hamels and Cain.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Marlins are on some level scared of the shoulder problems. It will be really interesting to see what they do with Josh Johnson.

What about the Mariners giving $48 million to Carlos Silva before 2008? Silva went 4.21, 3.44, 5.94, 4.19 from 2004-2007.

 

 

That was just a terrible contract.

 

Bill Bavasi had a history of dumbass moves, and he's already been fired. It's the reason why the Mariners have sucked for years now. Bad organizations makes bad moves.

Well, according you you, there's a ton of dumb GMs making dumbass moves. I think that almost always when you see GMs making bad appraisals of players, they overpay for the talent rather than allowing someone like Anibal to sign way below his actual value.

 

I really cannot even think of a precedent for the scenario you guys are describing.

I agree that you would get him for less now, but I think that your estimate is at a level too low. I still don't understand why you are convinced that he'd take $30 million. Even if he only expects to make $50MM (which I think is low--but beside the point), don't you think he'd rather test the market under those circumstances? That's a pretty substantial difference in cash and I would imagine it would be hard to pass up unless he really feels like his shoulder is about to fall apart any second.

 

 

I also added up to 3/40. That's more, per year, than you think he'll get as a free agent.

 

I think he would take anything between 3/30-40 because it's guaranteed money right now. He doesn't have to make it through one more season to get paid.

 

That's huge. Players trade potential dollars down the line to set themselves up right now. That's long term financial security that is guaranteed. I think you are undervaluing how important that is.

I really cannot even think of a precedent for the scenario you guys are describing.

 

 

Most contracts that are signed prior to free agency are done so at a discounted rate.

If we don't sign him, it's cause we're trying to get Hamels and Cain.

 

 

Guys like Hamels and Cain really don't fit in the long-term payroll of this team. It would be almost impossible to fit them in unless they're blowing it up to like $130 million every year, which this market almost certainly cannot support. The long-term outlook of this team cannot afford more $16-18 million dollar per year pitchers.

 

Which is why signing Anibal right now makes the most sense of any option. You'll get him somewhere below market value (we can agree on that point, I think), and not cripple long-term flexibility.

 

Anibal at $13 million per year for three years makes sense for this franchise. Matt Cain at $17 million for five years doesn't.

If 3/40 is a "bargain" in your words, then what is his market value? You already said that $60 million is way too high.

 

Would he take $40MM now? Maybe. I won't even make a guess. However, in that range, I think that you are taking on considerably more monetary risk with the injury concerns. It's really a delicate balance between health and economics. I would venture a guess and assume that's why the Marlins publicly said that Anibal should test the market.

I really cannot even think of a precedent for the scenario you guys are describing.

 

 

Most contracts that are signed prior to free agency are done so at a discounted rate.

We're not talking about buying out his arbitration years. We're talking about an incredibly short period where he's already been through all of his arbitration years and now close to free agency. Most importantly, I see the monetary gap to be disproportionately large (between now and free agency) in your account.

I think I found a pretty good comp for this situation.

 

Josh Beckett, prior to his final arbitration season (where Anibal is right now), signed a deal that paid him like this:

 

Final arbi season: $6 mil (plus $2 mil signing bonus, essentially $8mil)

FA1: $9.5 mil

FA2: $10.5 mil

FA3: $12 mil

 

Essentially bought out three free agent years for $32 million. Coming off a season in which he put up a 5.01 ERA. There were as many questions about Beckett as Anibal at that point, I think.

 

Even allowing for some inflation, that's comparable to 3/36 for Anibal right now.

 

So yeah, I think he would take 3/36 right now from the Marlins for his three free agency seasons. And I think if you're the Marlins that's a deal you're happy to make.

I really cannot even think of a precedent for the scenario you guys are describing.

 

 

Most contracts that are signed prior to free agency are done so at a discounted rate.

We're not talking about buying out his arbitration years. We're talking about an incredibly short period where he's already been through all of his arbitration years and now close to free agency. Most importantly, I see the monetary gap to be disproportionately large (between now and free agency).

 

But there are examples of players signing in this time frame, and they generally do so for below market value.

 

And while the gap is disproportionate, I think you're really undervaluing how much long-term security matters, especially to a guy who has had the career Anibal has.

 

There aren't many comps for him. There are a few that work, but it's tough to find. That's not because these situations never arise, but because his career path is very unique.

 

As for:

If 3/40 is a "bargain" in your words, then what is his market value? You already said that $60 million is way too high.

 

I think his market value is probably 4/52, or something around there if he was a free agent right now. I don't think he gets $15 million per year and I don't think he gets 5 years.

 

The reason I think 3/40 is a bargain is because, while it's essentially his market value on a per-year basis, it's only a three-year commitment from the team's perspective, which is a huge deal.

That's a decent comparison actually, but the salary inflation is over 15% (also notice the huge increase in average salary trend from 2005 to 2006). I think that 3/36 might be a bit conservative, but I could see it being analagous to 3/40.

 

It's not out of the question that Anibal signs for 40, but I could still see the Marlins being reluctant. Beckett had some question marks at that stage of his career, but he did not have a labrum surgery behind him.