Is re-signing a healthy Anibal next year a must?

[Hammerhead]

Yeah, yeah, I know I'm getting ahead of myself but it's something I've recently been thinking about.

 

This would have been a good topic for the debates. On one hand, the guy has posted sub 4 ERAs and nice K/BBs the last two years. On the other hand, even though our system is thin on pitching, I think, with a good year in the minors this year, we have a few guys that could step into the number three spot and put up similar ERAs with Hand, Koehler (a guy who has, I think, been cheated out of a chance to start here so far in his career especially in 2010), Villanueva, and others (including maybe Chad James).

 

With his injury history, I wouldn't give Anibal anything more than a one year deal. Depending on what he wants, which with a good year this year could be a decent amount of money and years, with the contracts we just gave out, I think you let him go and give one of these guys a shot.

 

What say you?

[mystikol87]

I say that most of the replacements you names would be lucky to put up sub-5.00 ERAs as starters at any point in their respective careers, let alone in 2013.

[bobbob1313]

I would give him 3/27 or something like that right now.

 

He's been one of the 25 best pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons.

 

As for having a few guys who could step into the three spot and put up similar ERAs (3.61 ERA over the last two years):

 

Tom Koehler had a 4.97 ERA in AAA last year.

Brad Hand (who I think will be solid down the road) had three more strikeouts than walks last year in the majors.

Elih Villanueva had a 5.35 ERA in AAA last year.

 

Our fan base really underrates Anibal Sanchez. It really bugs me. He's a borderline No. 1 starting pitcher in the majors right now.

[Hammerhead]

I would give him 3/27 or something like that right now.

 

He's been one of the 25 best pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons.

 

As for having a few guys who could step into the three spot and put up similar ERAs (3.61 ERA over the last two years):

 

Tom Koehler had a 4.97 ERA in AAA last year.

Brad Hand (who I think will be solid down the road) had three more strikeouts than walks last year in the majors.

Elih Villanueva had a 5.35 ERA in AAA last year.

 

Our fan base really underrates Anibal Sanchez. It really bugs me. He's a borderline No. 1 starting pitcher in the majors right now.

 

I take AAA numbers with a grain of salt because of the PCL. It also could have just been an off year in Koehler's case who has been in the mid 3's and in 2010, the high 2's in ERA in his career. I really don't know how he hasn't gotten a chance with the Marlins yet given the depth of pitching in this system.

 

I'm not saying Anibal isn't a good pitcher, at all. He's very solid when he's healthy. Luckily he's been able to stay on that side for the last two years but my fear is giving him those three years and him having three more seasons like he did from '07 to '09.

 

We spent at least $87 mil on pitching this offseason. Do you think the FO is going to be willing to throw a three year offer to a guy who has proven he has problems staying healthy? Questionable, especially with how Nolasco and JJ's contracts have worked out in regards to their health.

 

Of course the in house guys aren't the only options. I guess I just mentioned them because I'm partial to Koehler's cause and have been wanting to see him get a shot for awhile over Sanabia and it hasn't happened. 2013 has a really solid free agent pool for pitchers including Cain, Hamels, Greinke and others.

[Admin]

This would have been a good topic for the debates.

 

:|

 

I do believe what I said, though. He's definitely an extension candidate in terms of quality, but I think he needs one more year to prove he's healthy before I'd be confident giving him a mult-year extension.

[bobbob1313]

I take AAA numbers with a grain of salt because of the PCL. It also could have just been an off year in Koehler's case who has been in the mid 3's and in 2010, the high 2's in ERA in his career. I really don't know how he hasn't gotten a chance with the Marlins yet given the depth of pitching in this system.

 

 

Take the numbers with as many grains of salt as you want, but even when compared to the league averages, both were only average last year.

 

Neither of them has a shot at replicating what Anibal has done over the last two seasons. It's really unfair to them to expect anything like that.

[Admin]

I'd probably rather have Chris Volstad back over Koehler, Hand, and Villanueva.

 

Anibal's production will be hard to replace, but I'd at least want to take a look at Cain, Hamels, and Greinke. Their respective teams might negotiate an extension befor they hit free agency, but I bet at least one hits the market.

[bobbob1313]

Any one of those guys could be looking at $80 million plus, though.

[Hammerhead]

Any one of those guys could be looking at $80 million plus, though.

 

With another healthy, sub 4.00 year, do you think Anibal's going to want less?

[Admin]

Any one of those guys could be looking at $80 million plus, though.

 

I'm cool with that for Hamels and Cain.

 

I think Anibal will command much more than $30MM on the open market, though. I also doubt he agrees to that amount before he hits free agency.

[bobbob1313]

Any one of those guys could be looking at $80 million plus, though.

 

With another healthy, sub 4.00 year, do you think Anibal's going to want less?

 

Yes. He's not going to get Hamels or Cain money in free agency.

 

 

Any one of those guys could be looking at $80 million plus, though.

 

I'm cool with that for Hamels and Cain.

 

I think Anibal will command much more than $30MM on the open market, though. I also doubt he agrees to that amount before he hits free agency.

 

I think he would take a 3/30 extension right now because it provides him with stability long term. For the same reason you want to see him pitch one more year before committing to him. It puts him at 4/38 for the next four years including this year. I think he takes it.

 

As far as being "cool with that for Hamels and Cain," that's great. It likely does not fit into this team's long term payroll, though.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/a/cbsinteractive.com/pub?key=tQJ2iJ0-ErOo_z9G3xKSQ9g&output=html

 

JJ runs out in 2014, and the team still has $61 million already committed to just 4 players that year. There's simply not room for another $17 million per year contract there. $42 million committed to just two players in 2015.

 

And by that point, Stanton and Lomo are going to be arbitration eligible, meaning they're likely due for big paydays.

 

This team is not built to continue to throw money around in free agency moving forward. That was likely a one-time thing. We still need to find value contracts, and despite the injury concerns, I think Sanchez for $10 million is worth it right now. And, like I said, he likely takes the stability right now if offered.

[Erick]

Any one of those guys could be looking at $80 million plus, though.

 

With another healthy, sub 4.00 year, do you think Anibal's going to want less?

 

He's not going to want less, but he'll certainly get less.

 

As for the question, if he has another strong season and proves to stay healthy, yeah. Koehler won't put up the #'s Anibal can put up, Hand hasn't proven to be ready whatsoever, and Villanueva sucks.

 

Our starting pitching depth in the minors is abysmal.

[Wild Card]

I would give him 3/27 or something like that right now.

 

 

You think Anibal will get Nolasco money? I think that's a big time lowball. Someone will pick him up for 4-years, $50 Mill on the open market without a doubt in my mind (as long as he has the same type of '11 season in '12).

[bobbob1313]

That's why I said "right now and not "a year from now."

[Wild Card]

That's why I said "right now and not "a year from now."

 

 

Even coming off of this past season, he would get that money. That's why I said he would have to replicate it and not take a step backwards.

[bobbob1313]

He is a year away from free agency. He's not going to get free agency money when he's not a free agent.

 

If you offered him 3/30 right now, he likely takes it.

[Admin]

I don't see how you can rationalize him taking $30 million now--that sounds pretty lowball to me. I bet he could get around $60MM as a free agent next year and he realizes that. There is a trade-off by waiting another year for security.

 

On top of that, the Marlins also need to see how Johnson's health pans out. It's not out of the question that he has arm troubles this year again. If he does, he's probably not likely to be part of the team's future.

[mystikol87]

I don't see how you can rationalize him taking $30 million now--that sounds pretty lowball to me. I bet he could get around $60MM as a free agent next year and he realizes that. There is a trade-off by waiting another year for security.

 

On top of that, the Marlins also need to see how Johnson's health pans out. It's not out of the question that he has arm troubles this year again. If he does, he's probably not likely to be part of the team's future.

 

But you can still resign Anibal even if he becomes a free agent. I'm not sure how you mean that your second paragraph factors into the decision on Anibal.

[Admin]

I don't see how you can rationalize him taking $30 million now--that sounds pretty lowball to me. I bet he could get around $60MM as a free agent next year and he realizes that. There is a trade-off by waiting another year for security.

 

On top of that, the Marlins also need to see how Johnson's health pans out. It's not out of the question that he has arm troubles this year again. If he does, he's probably not likely to be part of the team's future.

 

But you can still resign Anibal even if he becomes a free agent. I'm not sure how you mean that your second paragraph factors into the decision on Anibal.

I'm talking about money on the books going forward if the Marlins want to spend big money on a starting pitcher. I'm saying that might make it easier to sign Anibal (or Cain/Hamels) in that situation.

[bobbob1313]

I don't see how you can rationalize him taking $30 million now--that sounds pretty lowball to me. I bet he could get around $60MM as a free agent next year and he realizes that. There is a trade-off by waiting another year for security.

 

On top of that, the Marlins also need to see how Johnson's health pans out. It's not out of the question that he has arm troubles this year again. If he does, he's probably not likely to be part of the team's future.

 

 

I think $60 million is a lot to say he's going to get next offseason.

 

Over the last three seasons only Yu Darvish, Mark Beurhle, CJ Wilson, John Lackey and Cliff Lee have gotten comparable or more money.

 

Those contracts don't get handed out to pitchers very often.

 

I think something like 4/50 would be about right for him next offseason, assuming he doesn't suffer a setback or fall off.

 

However Anibal and his agent know that there is a big risk to waiting a year, so if they're offered a deal that essentially pays him 4/$38 right now, I think they take the added security right now.

 

If you'd rather go with 3/36 or something, fine. It's not really a huge difference. And I'd still do that contract tomorrow, and so would Anibal.

[Admin]

And if Anibal puts up another season in 2012 close to his recent numbers, I think he belongs up there with those who have gotten comparable money. You said it yourself that he's been a top 25 pitcher in baseball.

 

I would probably take 3/$30MM on him now reluctantly. I say reluctantly, because on one hand I think that's probably much less than what he gets as a free agent, but at the same time I seem to be more worried about his injury history than most are.

[Admin]

I think you also left out John Danks and his $65 million deal. There might be one or two others I'm not thinking of too.

[bobbob1313]

And if Anibal puts up another season in 2012 close to his recent numbers, I think he belongs up there with those who have gotten comparable money. You said it yourself that he's been a top 25 pitcher in baseball.

 

 

He's a top-25 pitcher in baseball without the perception that he is. I said earlier our fan based underrates him, but I think his value is simply underrated overall.

 

For instance, you brought up Cain and Hamels. They're both clearly better than him, but the reason they're going to get those huge contracts while I think Anibal will be significantly behind them is because they have the perception of being aces around the league (and rightly so.) They have the accolades to their names that carry a ton of weight. Both are two-time All Stars with a handful of top-10 Cy Young finishes.

 

To show how under the radar Anibal's excellence has been, he's never received even a single Cy Young vote in his career.

 

That perception matters when doling out contracts -- it's why AJ Burnett got $85 million from the Yankees despite it clearly being an overpayment.

 

Sanchez's stock isn't that high around the league. He's a top-25 pitcher in baseball, but he's totally not flashy about it, and he's been doing it in relative anonymity. He's never been the unquestioned ace of a staff, he's never pitched in the playoffs, and he's never made an All Star game (I seem to remember him being a pretty big snub this year.)

 

It's why I think he won't get much more than $50 million as a free agent. It's why I think the Marlins could get him to sign a 3/30-36 extension right now.

 

I think you also left out John Danks and his $65 million deal. There might be one or two others I'm not thinking of too.

 

 

I was only going on deals players have gotten as free agents. Danks wasn't a free agent, right?

[Admin]

Well, remember I'm not saying that Anibal is on the same tier as Cain and Hamels. I've already indicated that the latter two will make more money as free agents. It makes sense for them to be perceived more favorably.

 

At the same time, I don't see how you can assume that this "perception" prevents Anibal from earning $14MM/year or more, especially after the scenario where he puts up another stellar season and hits the market. Much can change by then.

 

It just seems like a very tenuous position to me.

[Admin]

Danks was not a free agent, but that shouldn't make that much of a difference. A team still decided that Danks was worth that money as a player. He doesn't have Anibal's injury problems, but he really hasn't been a better pitcher.