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Standings Predictions by Division

Featured Replies

Yeah but the Yankees lost 2 big players, so the Yanks net gain is only 4. Then there was the Vazquez trade, which lost Johnson, so that's a wash too. Down to 3. Two of those Yankees are short relievers. so they're really only a 1/2 a big player so they're now down to two. Also, Boston had definable flaws, and they fixed them directly. The Yankees' main flaw was lack of a farm system and position depth, and that hasn't been addressed yet at all.

 

Advantage: Bo Sox

Let's be honest...

 

The Yanks lost Pettitte and Clemens, who give you an average of 200 IP and a 4 era. that's not a huge loss.

 

NJ is extremely injury prone...

 

Now to go even more in depth:

 

C

Jorge Posada vs. Jason Varitek

edge: J.P.

 

1B

Jason Giambi vs. Kevin Millar

edge: J.G.

 

2b

Alfonso Soriano vs god knows who

edge: A.S.

 

SS

Derek Jeter vs Nomar Garciaparra

edge: D.J.

I would usually not say this, but Derek's obp is .060 better, and Nomar hit in the mid .200s out of Fenway (.240 something I beleive.) He needs the monster or he's useless...Both are bad defensively, but Jeter is better, so Jeter does beat out Nomar.

 

3B

Aaron Boone vs. Bill Mueller

edge: B.M. Boone blows

 

RF

Gary Sheffield vs. Trot Nixon

edge: G.S.

 

CF

Kenny Lofton vs. Johnny Damon

edge K.L.

.801 ops 30 sb 9 cs Lofton

.750 ops 30 sb 6 cs Damon

 

LF

Hideki Matsui vs Manny Ramirez

edge M.R.

 

DH

Bernie Williams vs. David Ortiz

edge: tied

Bernie had 7 straight seasons with a better than a .900 ops until his injury in april. Ortiz had a career year and has never exhibited that sort of ability before. He's good, but a .800 something ops kind of good, not .900 something. Ortiz might have a slight edge, but he's simply not proven, and at this point Bernie should be better.

 

Starting pitching

Mike Mussina vs. Pedro Martinez

edge P.M

Pedro will win about as many games, but will pitch about 180 innings.

 

Kevin Brown vs Curt Schilling

edge K.B.

when both are healthy, brown was always better than schilling.

 

Javy Vazquez vs. Derek Lowe

edge J.V.

better of the two ground ball pitchers, better stuff

 

Jose Contreras vs. Tim Wakefield

edge J.C.

Jose has a low 2 era as a starter, but wakefield as a starter will give you about a 4 era and 200 ip.

 

Jon Lieber/David Wells vs. B Y Kim/Bronson Arroyo/Ramiro Mendoza

edge J.L./D.W.

Kim gave the fans the finger because he hated boston so much, and with lieber and wells fully recovered from surgery, the threesome in the 5 starter hole are inferior to the Yankees.

 

Bullpen

Closer

Mariano Rivera vs Keith Foulke

edge M.R.

 

RHP

Flash Gordon vs. Scott Williamson

edge F.G.

 

LHP

Felix Heredia vs. Alan Embree

edge tie, Heredia came off a great season, but Embree has been a fairly consistant LH fireballer

 

Quantrill vs Timlin

edge Quantrill, both have AL experience, but Timlin has not been as good as quantrill

 

Gabe White vs. Scott Sauerbeck

edge: G.W....the best of the two crappy guys

 

The Yankees have a superior bullpen, better starting, and better position players. Neither bench is going to put one over the other, and the only minor league system worst than the yankees is the red sox.

 

Edge: Yankees

 

oh yeah, we don't have a curse on us unlike some teams... All I'm going to point out is that you call David Ortiz "unproven" and then rank Contreras as a better starter than Wakefield based on a handful of starts.

Except of course you wouldn't because you'd have to pick either Dodgers, Padres, DBacks or Rockies to top them.

Ha ha I actually did. I hope you're nowhere close to a reservation casino!

All I'm going to point out is that you call David Ortiz "unproven" and then rank Contreras as a better starter than Wakefield based on a handful of starts.

Because that is all you can point out. Wakefield is proven...proven to be a 4 to 4.5 era starter throughout his career. He has historically shown better eras in relief, but not starting so if he starts, he will most definitely do worse than contreras, who throughout his career has been a dominant starter and has shown no different in America (as a starter mind you.) I would take wakefield in relief over contreras, but DEFINITELY not starting, and no sane person would.

 

Face it guys, on paper the red sox are clearly inferior, and it is simply amazing if ortiz repeats last year's performance and bernie williams repeats his. The yanks have an advantage in almost every position player and pitching slot. Don't let your hatred of the yankees cloud your judgement, just like your desire for Vlad made many here believe he was going to be a marlin...

 

The yanks are better. Our bullpen is superior to boston. Our starting rotation is superior to boston, and we have better position players than boston, even shortstop:

 

Nomar is way overrated...same with jeter, but I was in the "nomar is better" camp, but no more.

 

look at the 2003 away statistics:

Jeter's ops away .850

Garciaparra's ops away .687

 

He's nothing outside of fenway. I used to think nomar was better, but if you put jeter in fenway, this wouldn't be up for discussion. The numbers don't lie.

 

Is there something I am missing? No.

comparing the lineups:

houston/ chicago/ st. louis:

C. Ausmus/ Barret edge houston

1b. bagwell/ lee edge houston

2b. kent/ Grudzielanek edge houston

3b. ensberg/ vizcaino edge houston

ss. everett/ gonzalez edge chicago

lf. berkman/ alou edge houston

cf. biggio/ patterson edge houston

rf. hidalgo/ sosa edge chicago

pitching:

1. oswalt/ prior edge chicago

2. pettite/ wood edge houston

3. miller/ zambrano edge houston

4. redding/ clement edge houston

bullpen: edge houston

manager: edge houston

new york/ boston

C. posada/ varitek edge: new york

1b. giambi/ millar edge: new york

2b. soriano/ reese edge: new york

3b. boone/ mueller edge: boston

ss. jeter/ nomar edge: new york

lf. matsui/ ramirez edge: boston

cf. williams/ damon edge: new york

rf. sheffield/ nixon edge: new york

pitching:

1. Mussina/ Pedro edge: boston

2. Brown/ Schilling edge: new york (when brown's healthy)

3. Vazquez/ Lowe edge: new york

4. Contrereas/ Wakefield edge: new york

bullpen: edge new york

manager: edge new york

Is there something I am missing? No.

First of all, directly comparing the away OPS of Nomar and Jeter is unfair because the away OPS of Jeter includes 37 ABs at Fenway where he had a .928 OPS. So the non-fenway OPS of Jeter is .835, which is a fairer comparison to Nomar's non-fenway OPS of .687

 

More importantly, you can't take split stats from one season and judge the relative worth of the players.

 

In their careers:

Jeter's Home/Away OPS: .851/.851

Nomar's Home/Away OPS: .960/.889

 

So Nomar clearly benefits from Fenway, but over his career, he's still a better hitter than Jeter at any park.

 

Add in Jeter's questionable defensive range, and i think Nomar is clearly the better player.

 

 

This argument isn't that important however, since the Yankees are still clearly a better team on paper than the Red Sox.

comparing the lineups:

houston/ chicago/ st. louis:

C. Ausmus/ Barret edge houston

1b. bagwell/ lee edge houston

2b. kent/ Grudzielanek edge houston

3b. ensberg/ vizcaino edge houston

ss. everett/ gonzalez edge chicago

lf. berkman/ alou edge houston

cf. biggio/ patterson edge houston

rf. hidalgo/ sosa edge chicago

pitching:

1. oswalt/ prior edge chicago

2. pettite/ wood edge houston

3. miller/ zambrano edge houston

4. redding/ clement edge houston

bullpen: edge houston

manager: edge houston

new york/ boston

C. posada/ varitek edge: new york

1b. giambi/ millar edge: new york

2b. soriano/ reese edge: new york

3b. boone/ mueller edge: boston

ss. jeter/ nomar edge: new york

lf. matsui/ ramirez edge: boston

cf. williams/ damon edge: new york

rf. sheffield/ nixon edge: new york

pitching:

1. Mussina/ Pedro edge: boston

2. Brown/ Schilling edge: new york (when brown's healthy)

3. Vazquez/ Lowe edge: new york

4. Contrereas/ Wakefield edge: new york

bullpen: edge new york

manager: edge new york

Those type of analyses are typically dumb, and in any event, some of your "edges" are laughable.

comparing the lineups:

houston/ chicago/ st. louis:

C. Ausmus/ Barret edge houston

1b. bagwell/ lee edge houston

2b. kent/ Grudzielanek edge houston

3b. ensberg/ vizcaino edge houston

ss. everett/ gonzalez edge chicago

lf. berkman/ alou edge houston

cf. biggio/ patterson edge houston

rf. hidalgo/ sosa edge chicago

pitching:

1. oswalt/ prior edge chicago

2. pettite/ wood edge houston

3. miller/ zambrano edge houston

4. redding/ clement edge houston

bullpen: edge houston

manager: edge houston

new york/ boston

C. posada/ varitek edge: new york

1b. giambi/ millar edge: new york

2b. soriano/ reese edge: new york

3b. boone/ mueller edge: boston

ss. jeter/ nomar edge: new york

lf. matsui/ ramirez edge: boston

cf. williams/ damon edge: new york

rf. sheffield/ nixon edge: new york

pitching:

1. Mussina/ Pedro edge: boston

2. Brown/ Schilling edge: new york (when brown's healthy)

3. Vazquez/ Lowe edge: new york

4. Contrereas/ Wakefield edge: new york

bullpen: edge new york

manager: edge new york

Those type of analyses are typically dumb, and in any event, some of your "edges" are laughable. But you don't want to give any examples?

 

The only one that might be wrong is pettite over wood, and even that is a toss up.

Ausmus > Barrett? Biggio > Patterson? Redding > Clement? Jimy Williams > Dusty Baker? Houston's bullpen, with the loss of Wagner, better than Chicago's, with the loss of Alfonseca? Oh, and Aramis Ramirez is the Cubs' 3rd basemen, not Jose Vizcaino.

 

As for Pettitte v. Wood, we'll see how Andy performs outside of NY. We already know what Kerry can do.

I can't believe those who put the Marlins on 3rd F***cking place on the NL East? ALL BY FANS OF TEAMS THAT WE ELIMINATED ON THE PLAYOFFS (Giants and Yankees). Edit: RippyO, my bad you put the MArlins on 2nd place on the East. (I edited my post)

I guess you think is all over because we lost Pudge?

 

Remember, best 2003 MLB winning percentage ratio since Trader Jack took over the team!

 

Here are my predictions (only top 2 or 3 from each division):

 

National League

 

NL East:

 

1. Marlins (close race, no team will run away with the division like 2003 Braves)

 

Marlin's Key

- Jack from day one

- More leadership due to WS and playoff experience

- matured and stronger rotation

- Better day one team when comparing the 2003 day one Marlins). i.e. No more Hollansworthless

- we have the best GM in the NL east who outsmarted every other GM on the NL east with trades during the middle of the season.

- We owned the NL East during 2003 (and will do it again)

- This team will continue to believe that they can ALWAYS come back and win the game

- The Fish never die, they won't shoke

 

2. Braves (could go either way with the Phillies)

3. Phillies

4. Expos

5. Metz

 

NL Central (another close race, Astros may win the division):

 

1. Cubs

2. Astros

3. Cardinals

 

NL West:

 

1. Giants

2. Dodgers

 

American League

 

AL East:

 

1. Yankees (Red Sox are cursed, look for a 2003 repeat)

2. Red Sox

 

AL Central:

 

1. Royals (close race, can go either way)

2. Twins

 

AL West:

 

1. Athletics

2. Mariners

First of all, directly comparing the away OPS of Nomar and Jeter is unfair because the away OPS of Jeter includes 37 ABs at Fenway where he had a .928 OPS. So the non-fenway OPS of Jeter is .835, which is a fairer comparison to Nomar's non-fenway OPS of .687

 

More importantly, you can't take split stats from one season and judge the relative worth of the players.

 

In their careers:

Jeter's Home/Away OPS: .851/.851

Nomar's Home/Away OPS: .960/.889

 

So Nomar clearly benefits from Fenway, but over his career, he's still a better hitter than Jeter at any park.

 

Add in Jeter's questionable defensive range, and i think Nomar is clearly the better player.

 

 

This argument isn't that important however, since the Yankees are still clearly a better team on paper than the Red Sox.

I never deny nomar WAS better than jeter, but since his injury, he has not been the same. .835 to .687 is still a huge difference, and nomar is no longer better defensively, though jeter is no omar vizquel himself.

 

thank you for conceding to the "better team on paper" point. However, look at nomar after his injury year. He's not the batting title nomar of old.

 

btw, missing pudge's bat is huge. However, cabrera might explode...but i'm not about to go against atlanta's disgustingly (i'm joking) long streak.

  • 3 months later...

Ausmus > Barrett? Biggio > Patterson? Redding > Clement? Jimy Williams > Dusty Baker? Houston's bullpen, with the loss of Wagner, better than Chicago's, with the loss of Alfonseca? Oh, and Aramis Ramirez is the Cubs' 3rd basemen, not Jose Vizcaino.

 

As for Pettitte v. Wood, we'll see how Andy performs outside of NY. We already know what Kerry can do.

One month in, and I am right. Let this be a lesson to all of you.

NL East:

 

1. Braves

2. Marlins

3. Phillies

4. Mets

5. Expos

 

NL Central:

 

1. Cubs

2. Cardinals

3. Astros

4. Reds

5. Brewers

6. Pirates

 

NL West:

 

1. Dodgers

2. Giants

3. Padres

4. D-Backs

5. Rockies

 

American League

 

AL East:

 

1. red Sox

2. Yankees

3. Blue Jays

4. Orioles

5. D-Rays

 

AL Central:

 

1. Twins

2. Royals

3. White Sox

4. Indians

5. Tigers

 

AL West:

 

1. Athletics

2. Rangers

3. Angels

4. Mariners

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