MVNJoe

Yeah, quite obviously the Orioles don't know what they're doing. Oh hey... they just managed to unload their albatross contract. How are you guys doing with yours?

From what I understand, Lowell's due about $21 million over the next two seasons. It's a lot for the O's to take on. Not prohibitative, but after the Sosa move, Angelos is a little trigger-shy for a guy that's being a serious offensive detriment.

Agreed. There's absolutely no way that Cabrera gets moved. The Orioles will be patient with him for another two or three years. Peter Gammons went on BBTN and stated rather plainly that the vast majority of front offices believe that Daniel Cabrera will be a stud pitcher in this league. The Orioles aren't giving him up for anyone. It's a little better proposal as far as the Marlins are concerned. And I dunno... when the O's played against the Pirates, Ward killed them. I'll have to look at it a little more. But the Marlins ending up with Redman, Julio, Penn, and Bigbie... that's much much better for them.

All I'm trying to say is that the Orioles trade is a better fit for the Marlins than the Red Sox trade. And the Red Sox trade ain't happening, from what I hear. And there's no way the Orioles are giving up Cabrera. There's just no way they're even thinking about parting with him unless it brought a lot more than A.J. Burnett and Mike Lowell.

No way the Orioles and Red Sox become involved in the same deal. Rivals don't typically do that. They're basically fighting against each other, and the reports are that the Red Sox are saying publically that they're not in the running for this at all.

Bigbie's really only played 1 1/2 seasons at the big league level, but you're right. .456 and .427 in that half season then full season isn't entirely encouraging. Bigbie's problems for a good part of this season has been a combination of slumping, irregular playing time, and injury. Consider this, though: last season (his first full season), Bigbie hit .280 with 15 homers and 68 RBIs. His OPS was .768, which is pretty solid. He's never going to be a spectacular player, but if he puts up those numbers with his above-average speed and good glove, he's not a bad kid to have in the outfield. The Orioles are trading him largely because the Marlins are high on him, and they have a log jam in the outfield (plus, they need Burnett to stay in the race).

That's been the exception and not the rule for Bigbie (and he's hitting .296 against lefties). Over the last three years, Bigbie's hit lefties at a clip of .249, while hitting righties at .298. His OPS drops from .799 against righties to .701 against lefties.

Thanks for the warm welcome. Other teams are pretty high on Hayden Penn, as are the Orioles. Penn was a player that was absolutely off-limits to the Orioles over the winter. The A's wanted him in a proposed deal for Tim Hudson, and later in a proposed deal for Barry Zito. Both times the Orioles hesitated on pulling the trigger. That's how much they like Penn, and Beane absolutely salivated over him. I imagine that if Barry Zito were even close to available, the Orioles and A's would've had some discussion over Penn. The only reason the Orioles have taken him off of "untouchable" status is A) They love what they see out of Daniel Cabrera, B) Are in a serious playoff race, C) Absolutely need a starting pitcher, and D) Know that either the Yankees or Red Sox, or both, are going to make a significant move to improve their roster. Penn won't be ready for a few years (3-4), and I have absolutely no knowledge of how he would rate in the Marlins system, but I do know that other teams have had interest in him in the past. It's entirely possible that the Marlins try to turn pieces of this deal (I'd imagine Penn and possibly Encarnacion or Bigbie) into something else, but that's complete speculation on my part. It makes sense for the Marlins, but they're not exactly getting fleeced in this. As high as I am on Burnett, there's no guarantee that he pitches well in a smallish Oriole Park. He could turn out to be a guy that the Orioles regret (though I think working with Ray Miller will turn him into an electric pitcher). Mike Lowell's a bigger risk, but he's a guy you love to have in your clubhouse. And he's not Sammy Sosa's twin. I don't think Lowell's mechanics are right right now. Sosa's problem is that he physically can't catch up to inside heat anymore, and he refuses to adjust his swing. I doubt Lowell would have the same gripe. He'll get it back on track, though I'm not sure if he'll be the same 25-30 homer, 100-110 RBI kind of guy again. There are rumors that the Orioles are considering moving Mora, who's played at a near gold-glove level at third, back to the outfield to slot Lowell in at third. Not sure why they would do that when there's a perfectly open corner infield spot (first) for the O's. Move Lowell to first and Gibbons to left. No problem.

My name's Joe Jackson, and I write about the Orioles at http://www.all-baseball.com/chop/. I understand that you all are sweating this trade, probably as much as I am (for different reason... I'm excited about this trade). I'm going to try to help put some of your minds at ease with what the Marlins would be receiving in return. Hayden Penn is a good prospect. Is he the savior, like a lot of O's homers will have you believe? Not yet. But he does have that ceiling. The one thing he showed in his call-up to Baltimore back in May was incredible poise. The numbers he posted may not look flattering, but he easily would've had 4 wins had the defense not crumbled behind him and the bullpen not choked away leads. Officials with the Orioles couldn't believe how well Penn handled himself for being just 20. He features a 94 MPH fastball with movement, a developing change-up, and a sharp curve that he has to learn to throw over for strikes. Is he a better prospect than Daniel Cabrera? No... but he's the best Minor League prospect that the Orioles have. He has a higher ceiling than Kelly Shoppach and Sean Burroughs, at least. Jorge Julio is a tough call. He reminds a lot of Orioles fans of Armando Benitez... a guy who has electric stuff, but gets too caught up in the moment. He allows game pressure to get to him from time to time, and he also becomes enamored with lighting up the radar gun. Benitez needed a scenery change, and a lot of scouts think that Julio needs one as well. The Orioles don't need him in the pen anymore because they've received a lot of production out of a young righty named Chris Ray. Penn may be the center of the deal, but Julio's a good piece. The jury's completely out on Admin Bigbie and what he can do. He's a former first round draft pick, and all Orioles fans have been hearing for years is how high his potential stretches. We haven't seen it, just the occasional flash. He does have a little power and above-average speed, and his defense is much better than average in left. He has problems hitting left-handers, and the Orioles have been trying to keep him away from lefties all season. He will hit for average if he puts it all together, and he'll more than likely hit for doubles. In a pitcher's park like Dolphins Stadium, I wouldn't personally expect 20 homers from him, but hitting .305 with 30 doubles isn't out of the realm of possibility for him. And then there's Steve Kline. If you guys want him, take him. Please. I know he's been able to get it done in the NL, but he's lost velocity and continues to try to pound the ball in like he hasn't. His job is to get lefties out, but lefties are hitting above .300 against him this season. He's becoming a clubhouse distraction, and his comments about regretting signing in Baltimore struck a lot of fans and fellow players wrong. Kline's in there as added salary dump since the Orioles are going to be taking on Lowell. It's not an awful deal for the Marlins, as I see it, though it's not better than the one the White Sox have (if that's an accurate rumor). The problem I see with the White Sox is that I wonder how willing they'll be to disrupt team chemistry at this point in the season (and I personally think that their issues, if any, are no where near their rotation). I'm kinda surprised that Chicago's not after a bat, and I haven't heard whether or not they'd take Lowell, but that seems to be a sticking point for Florida right now. The Orioles are willing, and that's why they're at the fore-front. If no one else decides to eat his contract, then I'm thinking that the deal will go to the Orioles. It's not a better package than Chicago's, but it's a heck of a lot better than the Red Sox-Padres-Marlins 3-way trade I heard about last night. At least the Marlins will fill what I've heard that their needs are from the get-go (Starter, solid reliever, young lefty bat). To that end, the Orioles deal makes more sense. Not trying to be a homer here. Just trying to shed some light on these players from someone that sits and watches them on a daily basis.