September 18, 200422 yr Author Tropical wave along 25w...in the western part of the Cape Verde Islands...south of 18n...moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong showers and thunderstorms from 11n to 16n between 26w and 30w. This area of precipitation is becoming better organized. There is potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two as the system moves slowly westward. TD #13 in 24 hours or less if this organization trend continues.
September 19, 200422 yr Author A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE THAT A SFC LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SEEM TO SHOW AT LEAST A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 13N28W. THE CONVECTION AROUND THIS FEATURE HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE BAND TO THE N...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG FROM 13N-15.5N BETWEEN 26W-30W. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.
September 19, 200422 yr Author AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
September 19, 200422 yr 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192049 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2004 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 33.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER LAWRENCE $$
September 19, 200422 yr THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND HURRICANE KARL IS WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND SPEED BY 20 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE...ONLY INCREASING THE WIND TO 45 KT. THIS IS BASED ON THE SUGGESTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM KARL IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEPRESSIONS CONVECTION AND MAY HAVE AN INHIBITING EFFECT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT REPRESENTED WELL IN THE GFS AND IN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE KARL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL. FORECASTER LAWRENCE
September 20, 200422 yr 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON SEP 20 2004 ...LISA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES...1305 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 35.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$
September 20, 200422 yr LISA REMAINS A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...INCLUDING AND OCCASIONAL HINT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 20/0903Z AMSU AND 20/0955Z SSMI OVERPASSES REVEALED A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE WAS PRESENT. SUCH FEATURES ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH 45-55 KT TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON RECENT UW-CIMSS AND CIRA AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES OF 999.1 AND 998 MB... RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MADE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BETWEEN LISA AND KARL TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO REMAIN INTACT TO SOME DEGREE. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND PULLS LISA NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...NOGAPS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT EVEN IDENTIFIES LISA BEYOND 24-36 HOURS...AND IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS USUAL OVERDEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALLOWS LISA TO ERODE THE NARROW RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH IT. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE CURRENT VERY SMALL DIAMETER OF LISA...AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TO KEEP THE DIAMETER OF THE CYCLONE SMALLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND DEEP BAM MODELS. SMALL COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE LISA ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARP CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN BY LATER TODAY. BY 36 HOURS...LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION ...SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS. IF LISA REMAINS SOUTH OF 15N LATITUDE WHERE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LILELY BE LESS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART
September 21, 200422 yr At this rate, we'll get to Wilma before the season is over. Do they have names for next year yet? Do you think we'll have to dip into them???? :confused
September 21, 200422 yr Why do people act like we never have these many storms? :plain 566879[/snapback] Because, as far as I can remember (46 years), we've never had this many storms in one season, and the season isn't over yet.
September 21, 200422 yr Author Why do people act like we never have these many storms? :plain 566879[/snapback] Because, as far as I can remember (46 years), we've never had this many storms in one season, and the season isn't over yet. 567017[/snapback] There has been this many storms in a season before..1995 had many..but this season is far from over, we'll see.
September 25, 200422 yr Author Mind you....we are currently at the peak of hurricane season ... 570684[/snapback] we were, I don't think that many will come off the africa coast from what I've seen/heard..we might get a rest period for a bit.
September 25, 200422 yr Why do people act like we never have these many storms? :plain 566879[/snapback] Because, as far as I can remember (46 years), we've never had this many storms in one season, and the season isn't over yet. 567017[/snapback] There has been this many storms in a season before..1995 had many..but this season is far from over, we'll see. 567051[/snapback] are you alittle slow or something, pheonix? we were hit with a hurricane opal only a few years back and last I checked O comes after L.
September 25, 200422 yr Author Why do people act like we never have these many storms?? :plain 566879[/snapback] Because, as far as I can remember (46 years), we've never had this many storms in one season, and the season isn't over yet. 567017[/snapback] There has been this many storms in a season before..1995 had many..but this season is far from over, we'll see. 567051[/snapback] are you alittle slow or something, pheonix? we were hit with a hurricane opal only a few years back and last I checked O comes after L. 571494[/snapback] :o And how come I got quoted? :mad :
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.