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1 Kansas 20-3 0.6795 1 0.6164 2 2

2 Wake Forest 22-4 0.6694 3 0.5956 5 5

3 Oklahoma St 19-3 0.6680 4 0.5947 8 7

4 Illinois 27-0 0.6654 45 0.5539 1 1

5 Boston College 22-1 0.6580 43 0.5545 6 6

6 Duke 19-4 0.6560 2 0.6000 7 8

7 Washington 20-4 0.6497 13 0.5738 15 13

8 North Carolina 22-3 0.6483 27 0.5653 4 4

9 Arizona 23-4 0.6436 10 0.5770 10 11

10 Gonzaga 21-4 0.6433 17 0.5697 13 16

11 Alabama 20-4 0.6326 38 0.5568 16 17

12 Kentucky 20-3 0.6321 50 0.5524 3 3

13 Southern Illinois 21-6 0.6248 48 0.5528

14 Vermont 19-5 0.6160 83 0.5343

15 Utah 21-3 0.6158 114 0.5223 14 13

16 Michigan St 19-4 0.6153 73 0.5410 11 10

17 Wisconsin 17-6 0.6153 19 0.5695 20 20

18 Villanova 17-6 0.6149 9 0.5808 25

19 Syracuse 22-5 0.6143 41 0.5558 9 9

20 Oklahoma 19-6 0.6080 32 0.5615 21 22

21 Cincinnati 20-6 0.6056 34 0.5606 24 21

22 Maryland 16-8 0.6035 8 0.5825 22

23 Miami-Ohio 16-6 0.6026 75 0.5398

24 Pacific 22-2 0.6016 166 0.4966 19 19

25 Charlotte 19-4 0.6016 91 0.5299 23 23

26 Connecticut 17-6 0.6013 30 0.5637 18 18

27 Louisville 21-4 0.5976 93 0.5295 12 12

28 Nevada 19-5 0.5941 79 0.5364

29 Mississippi St 18-8 0.5896 54 0.5497

30 Texas Tech 16-7 0.5892 39 0.5563 25

31 Old Dominion 23-4 0.5873 201 0.4839

32 Texas 17-7 0.5865 60 0.5465

33 LSU 15-8 0.5860 26 0.5656

34 DePaul 16-7 0.5852 74 0.5406

35 Pittsburgh 18-5 0.5822 108 0.5236 17 15

36 St. Mary's 20-7 0.5819 100 0.5266

37 UCLA 14-9 0.5814 12 0.5745

38 Holy Cross 20-5 0.5808 157 0.5015

39 Notre Dame 16-7 0.5807 67 0.5449

40 Stanford 15-9 0.5802 28 0.5652

41 Buffalo 17-7 0.5799 95 0.5294

42 Wichita St 18-6 0.5790 128 0.5161

43 UL Lafayette 16-8 0.5764 89 0.5304

44 Georgia Tech 15-8 0.5760 36 0.5592

45 Florida 16-7 0.5755 66 0.5451 24

46 Akron 15-7 0.5742 104 0.5249

47 Northern Iowa 18-8 0.5739 98 0.5288

48 Ark-Little Rock 13-9 0.5727 57 0.5476

49 Georgetown 16-8 0.5709 59 0.5473

50 Iowa State 15-8 0.5696 63 0.5459

51 Kent St 14-10 0.5693 49 0.5524

52 Davidson 15-7 0.5688 96 0.5292

53 Minnesota 17-9 0.5687 37 0.5577

54 Miami-Florida 15-9 0.5682 21 0.5693

55 South Carolina 14-9 0.5678 29 0.5643

56 Boston U 19-6 0.5669 175 0.4929

57 Vanderbilt 16-10 0.5667 22 0.5690

58 Virginia 13-11 0.5666 6 0.5888

59 Arizona St 18-9 0.5660 55 0.5496

60 Ohio State 18-9 0.5654 88 0.5317

61 Northeastern 17-8 0.5652 130 0.5155

62 Wis-Milwaukee 19-5 0.5641 220 0.4781

63 Western Kentucky 18-6 0.5636 181 0.4915

64 Oregon 12-11 0.5627 7 0.5886

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It matters a lot more for bubble teams than it does for the teams getting the top seeds.

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Agreed. It is a big factor in that regard.

 

The Saragin seem to be far more accurate:

 

College Basketball 2004-2005 Div I games only thru Sunday, February 20, 2005 (connected-unbiased)

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.12 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR

1 Illinois = 95.59 27 0 77.21( 54) 2 0 | 8 0 | 104.00 1 | 93.21 4

2 North Carolina = 95.18 22 3 79.73( 7) 1 2 | 6 2 | 92.87 4 | 100.71 1

3 Oklahoma State = 92.73 19 3 79.51( 11) 0 0 | 4 3 | 91.29 6 | 94.03 3

4 Wake Forest = 92.54 22 4 81.18( 1) 2 2 | 6 3 | 93.35 3 | 91.40 8

5 Duke = 92.47 19 4 79.93( 6) 3 1 | 5 3 | 90.54 8 | 94.99 2

6 Kansas = 91.65 20 3 80.35( 4) 1 0 | 5 2 | 91.35 5 | 91.35 9

7 Kentucky = 91.47 20 3 76.82( 60) 1 2 | 2 2 | 90.50 9 | 91.98 6

8 Washington = 91.44 20 4 78.75( 20) 0 0 | 3 2 | 91.23 7 | 91.07 11

9 Michigan State = 90.38 19 4 76.74( 62) 0 2 | 1 3 | 89.25 12 | 91.10 10

10 Louisville = 89.16 21 4 74.50( 132) 0 1 | 3 2 | 86.76 18 | 92.80 5

College Basketball 2004-2005 Div I games only thru Sunday, February 20, 2005 (connected-unbiased)

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.12 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR

11 Arizona = 89.11 23 4 78.15( 28) 1 1 | 2 1 | 90.41 10 | 87.64 19

12 Alabama = 88.71 20 4 77.22( 53) 0 1 | 0 3 | 88.54 13 | 88.29 13

13 Boston College = 88.11 22 1 76.37( 78) 0 0 | 3 0 | 95.68 2 | 85.03 27

14 Connecticut = 88.06 17 6 77.68( 35) 0 1 | 2 4 | 87.06 17 | 88.58 12

15 Oklahoma = 87.52 19 6 77.96( 33) 1 3 | 3 4 | 86.44 19 | 88.12 15

16 Utah = 87.35 21 3 74.33( 137) 0 1 | 0 2 | 87.76 16 | 86.44 23

17 Syracuse = 87.23 22 5 76.24( 82) 0 1 | 1 5 | 88.43 14 | 85.77 24

18 Wisconsin = 87.14 17 6 79.07( 18) 1 2 | 4 2 | 86.34 20 | 87.39 21

19 Cincinnati = 86.76 20 6 76.28( 81) 0 4 | 0 4 | 85.59 22 | 87.48 20

20 Villanova = 86.73 17 6 77.43( 45) 1 0 | 2 3 | 85.41 24 | 87.68 17

College Basketball 2004-2005 Div I games only thru Sunday, February 20, 2005 (connected-unbiased)

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.12 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR

21 Texas Tech = 86.53 16 7 77.66( 37) 1 2 | 2 4 | 84.96 27 | 87.85 16

22 Gonzaga = 85.90 21 4 77.08( 56) 2 1 | 3 1 | 89.40 11 | 83.35 39

23 Texas = 85.80 17 7 77.24( 51) 1 2 | 2 4 | 83.91 31 | 87.67 18

24 Georgia Tech = 85.72 15 8 78.21( 27) 1 3 | 1 5 | 83.52 33 | 88.19 14

25 Maryland = 85.62 16 8 78.71( 21) 2 2 | 3 3 | 84.30 29 | 86.54 22

26 Florida = 85.30 16 7 76.40( 75) 0 2 | 1 2 | 81.96 50 | 91.56 7

27 Pittsburgh = 85.06 18 5 74.74( 125) 0 0 | 3 1 | 85.33 26 | 84.25 34

28 Pacific = 85.04 22 2 72.60( 192) 0 1 | 0 1 | 88.40 15 | 82.47 44

29 Vermont = 84.16 19 5 73.27( 166) 0 2 | 0 2 | 83.03 40 | 84.79 30

30 Iowa = 84.15 16 9 78.55( 24) 1 4 | 3 5 | 83.08 39 | 84.72 31

College Basketball 2004-2005 Div I games only thru Sunday, February 20, 2005 (connected-unbiased)

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.12 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR

31 Southern Illinois = 84.09 21 6 77.49( 43) 0 0 | 0 0 | 85.38 25 | 82.51 43

32 Charlotte = 83.99 19 4 75.34( 106) 0 0 | 1 2 | 85.93 21 | 82.01 48

33 Wis.-Milwaukee = 83.81 20 5 73.38( 164) 0 1 | 0 2 | 82.81 42 | 84.28 33

34 Mississippi State = 83.76 18 8 77.07( 57) 0 1 | 1 4 | 83.17 38 | 83.76 35

35 Arkansas = 83.51 17 9 75.10( 115) 0 2 | 0 5 | 81.46 53 | 85.51 25

36 Ohio State = 83.40 18 9 76.49( 72) 0 2 | 2 3 | 81.88 52 | 84.57 32

37 Notre Dame = 83.32 16 7 76.70( 63) 0 0 | 3 4 | 85.48 23 | 81.20 54

38 George Washington = 83.08 17 5 72.85( 181) 1 1 | 2 1 | 82.11 47 | 83.50 36

39 NC State = 83.03 15 10 78.02( 32) 0 4 | 4 4 | 81.05 58 | 84.88 28

40 Northern Iowa = 82.90 18 8 76.12( 87) 0 0 | 0 2 | 81.90 51 | 83.37 38

College Basketball 2004-2005 Div I games only thru Sunday, February 20, 2005 (connected-unbiased)

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.12 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR

41 Vanderbilt = 82.87 16 10 77.67( 36) 0 2 | 1 4 | 80.66 62 | 85.11 26

42 LSU = 82.78 15 8 78.27( 26) 0 1 | 1 3 | 82.07 48 | 82.92 41

43 Minnesota = 82.63 17 9 77.33( 47) 0 3 | 1 6 | 81.97 49 | 82.72 42

44 Texas A&M = 82.61 14 7 74.16( 143) 0 2 | 1 6 | 81.31 54 | 83.46 37

45 Nevada = 82.58 19 5 74.54( 131) 0 1 | 1 2 | 83.24 35 | 81.42 53

46 Iowa State = 82.55 15 8 77.45( 44) 1 2 | 4 3 | 82.79 43 | 81.75 50

47 DePaul = 82.42 16 7 76.24( 83) 0 0 | 1 1 | 82.22 45 | 82.04 47

48 Stanford = 82.38 15 9 79.08( 16) 0 3 | 1 4 | 83.66 32 | 80.78 59

49 South Carolina = 82.12 14 9 78.08( 31) 1 2 | 1 5 | 80.77 60 | 83.02 40

50 Wichita State = 82.09 18 6 76.20( 86) 0 0 | 0 0 | 83.22 37 | 80.59 61

College Basketball 2004-2005 Div I games only thru Sunday, February 20, 2005 (connected-unbiased)

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.12 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR

51 Miami-Florida = 81.88 15 9 77.79( 34) 0 4 | 2 5 | 81.17 56 | 82.01 49

52 Miami-Ohio = 81.85 16 6 76.59( 67) 0 0 | 0 1 | 82.88 41 | 80.41 63

53 UCLA = 81.65 14 9 79.57( 10) 1 2 | 1 5 | 84.50 28 | 79.06 79

54 Georgetown = 81.62 16 8 77.12( 55) 0 1 | 2 4 | 84.11 30 | 79.22 75

55 West Virginia = 81.52 16 8 76.23( 84) 0 0 | 1 5 | 83.23 36 | 79.58 69

56 Old Dominion = 81.49 23 4 70.75( 250) 0 0 | 0 0 | 83.52 34 | 79.35 70

57 Saint Mary's-Cal. = 81.37 20 7 74.86( 123) 0 0 | 1 1 | 82.27 44 | 80.02 65

58 Indiana = 81.22 12 11 80.73( 2) 0 3 | 1 5 | 80.90 59 | 80.94 57

59 Utah State = 81.18 19 7 71.66( 220) 0 0 | 1 2 | 78.11 93 | 84.85 29

60 Holy Cross = 81.06 20 5 71.34( 229) 0 0 | 0 2 | 80.64 63 | 80.88 58

College Basketball 2004-2005 Div I games only thru Sunday, February 20, 2005 (connected-unbiased)

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.12 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR

61 UAB = 80.98 16 9 75.83( 95) 0 2 | 0 3 | 79.20 84 | 82.43 46

62 SMS(SW Missouri State) = 80.94 14 10 76.37( 77) 0 0 | 0 1 | 79.11 85 | 82.44 45

63 Creighton = 80.81 17 10 75.94( 90) 0 0 | 0 0 | 80.44 66 | 80.59 60

64 Arizona State = 80.75 18 9 75.88( 92) 0 1 | 0 2 | 82.14 46 | 79.01 80

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