Article

 

Smoltz's return to starting has skeptics

Eckersley calls it a crapshoot; Glavine calls it unique

 

By DAVID O'BRIEN

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Published on: 03/11/05

 

Lake Buena Vista, Fla. -- John Smoltz says he has "zero doubts" about making a healthy, successful return to the Braves' starting rotation.

 

Others aren't as optimistic.

 

Dennis Eckersley, the Hall of Fame pitcher who set the standard for moving from ace starter to elite closer, couldn't imagine doing the starter-to-closer-to-starter conversion Smoltz is trying at age 37.

 

"The thought of even having to do what he's doing, that's outrageous to me," Eckersley said. "He's not getting any younger, and he's had arm trouble. I really think it's a crapshoot. They've got to watch him close.

 

"To tune it up to 125 pitches again, you've got to wonder if he'll last."

 

Mets pitcher Tom Glavine has concerns for his friend and former Braves teammate of 15 seasons.

 

"As much as everybody is thrilled about John coming back and wants to see him do well, myself included," Glavine said, "in the back of your mind . . . you know, he's doing something that nobody's ever done. I don't think anybody knows what to expect, including him.

 

"You know he's going to put his work in and do everything he thinks he has to do to stay healthy, but it's up to his elbow to cooperate."

 

Smoltz, who's had four elbow surgeries -- including two since he was last a full-time starter in 1999 -- and turns 38 in May, said: "I'm not going to let myself be consumed or even think about people saying how hard it's going to be. . . . I believe if you enjoy something and work hard enough, you can do things that have never been done."

 

Eckersley won 149 games and saved 390 after a mid-career role change. He never returned to starting.

 

"I didn't think you could even go that way," he said. "Guys go from starting to the bullpen. But I didn't think you could go [back to starting]."

 

Dave Righetti was a 14-game winner for the Yankees in 1983 before becoming a closer. He saved 252 games, including 46 in 1986, but flopped when he went back to starting late in his career.

 

Eric Gagne became a closer only after struggling as a starter, and Derek Lowe returned to starting at 28 in 2002, two years after saving 42 games.

 

No pitcher as accomplished in both roles as Smoltz (163 wins, 154 saves, 3.27 ERA) has made the move from starter to closer and then back to starter.

 

"But if anybody's capable of doing it, it's him," Eckersley said, "because he's not a two-pitch pitcher. He's got the stuff. And he's still got the gas [fastball], too. The biggest thing will be, does he have the stamina? He might be all right for a while, but then come August . . ."

 

Smoltz said, "I'd be very surprised if I had to take a start off. And I don't think I ever came out of a game because I was tired."

 

He went two scoreless innings in his spring debut Sunday against the Mets and is slated to start today in Kissimmee vs. Houston.

 

The opening day starter hasn't been announced, but the pitching plans are lined up for Smoltz to start the April 5 opener at Florida. He'd be the first pitcher to start a game after gaining a 50-save season.

 

The Braves agreed to move Smoltz back to the rotation after trading for former Milwaukee closer Dan Kolb in December. Smoltz knew there would be naysayers.

 

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus wrote, "While Smoltz was a very good starting pitcher in his time, he was moved to the bullpen because his elbow couldn't hold up under the workload. Incomplete seasons in 1998 and 1999 preceded a move to the bullpen, and even there, Smoltz pitched through pain. Watching him in the 2003 division series was agonizing.

 

"His desire to help the Braves win and his belief that he can do a better job of that in the rotation are sincere, but misguided. He's unlikely to get through the season without at least one DL trip. I figure him for 140 innings, max, with the most likely scenario being a strong start followed by regression and then injury. It will end up as a $10 million hole blown in a roster that just can't afford that kind of thing any longer."

 

Smoltz said, "I've got my sights set on winning a lot of games."

something in me roots for him and wants him to be successful. I've always liked Smoltz.

 

 

On the other hand, he's part of the team-that-never-goes-away. So I hope he pitches 200IP, has a 3.10 ERA, and loses 17 games :-)

loses 17 games :-)

 

 

:thumbup

This guy has conquered nearly every situation hes been in...

 

I expect that trend to continue.

 

Ill be rooting for him.

Smoltz is a gamer; he loves competition and I think at worst, he'll have a Mike Hampton 2004 season - slow start with some losses and stronger second half.