August 2, 200521 yr Weather Service Boosts Hurricane Forecast By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer 6 minutes ago WASHINGTON - The government on Tuesday sharply boosted its forecast for hurricanes this season, predicting 18 to 21 tropical storms by the end of November. That's up from a forecast in May of 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes. There have already been seven named storms this year, two of them hurricanes. That means the remainder of the year could see 11 to 14 more storms, including seven to nine more hurricanes, Weather Service Director David L. Johnson said at a briefing. Hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell the combination of warmer waters, low wind shear and low pressure, as well as the jet stream, favor storm formation. Hurricanes derive their energy from warm water. The sea surface is two to three degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, Bell noted. Wind shear, a change in wind direction with altitude, can suppress these storms and lack of shear allows them to form. The jet stream is in place to guide disturbances moving off the coast of Africa, he added. Weather Service officials urged preparedness on the part of people living in hurricane-prone areas. Bell said hurricanes have increased since 1995. He said there is a cycle between more and less active hurricane seasons which lasts for decades. The nation's coastlines had major population increases during the decades with low storm activity before 1995, he noted. A new analysis by Kerry Emmanuel at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests global warming is making tropical storms stronger. However, that report did not suggest it is generating more storms and Bell said it isn't possible to determine such an effect because the cycles of more and fewer storms are so strong. It would be very interesteing to see what would happen if there were more than 21 named storms. There are only 21 names each year since there are none that start with Q, U, X, Y, or Z.
August 2, 200521 yr Now we need to wait for Dr. Gray's forecast. As well as to see if the new UK models are going to finally be tested.
August 2, 200521 yr Awesome, more fearmongering!!!!! 885380[/snapback] Fearmongering? If anything, the NHC has undershot their forecast the past few years.
August 3, 200521 yr Awesome, more fearmongering!!!!! 885380[/snapback] Fearmongering? If anything, the NHC has undershot their forecast the past few years. 885385[/snapback] I think he's referring to the media. Almost makes you wonder if business pays media to push this stuff.
August 3, 200521 yr Awesome, more fearmongering!!!!! 885380[/snapback] Fearmongering? If anything, the NHC has undershot their forecast the past few years. 885385[/snapback] I think he's referring to the media. Almost makes you wonder if business pays media to push this stuff. 887022[/snapback] My concern is when your hurricane segments are brought to you by Home Depot/Lowe's/Publix.
August 3, 200521 yr Dr. Gray ups forecast to 20/10/6. http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forec..._zzz/aug05.html
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